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Samenvatting Internationale Monetaire Economie 2020

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Samenvatting Internationale Monetaire Economie gegeven door prof. L. Van Hove in het academiejaar

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SAMENVATTING
INTERNATIONALE
MONETAIRE ECONOMIE
L. Van Hove


Academiejaar 2019-2020




Maxime Deveen

,Chaper 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

National income accounting, records all the expenditures that contribute to a country’s income and
output. The second tool, balance of payments accounting, helps us keep track of both changes in a
country’s indebtedness to foreigners and the fortunes of its exportand import-competing industries.
The balance of payments accounts also show the connection between foreign transactions and
national money supplies.

Of central concern to macroeconomic analysis is a country’s gross national product (GNP), the value
of all final goods and services produced by the country’s factors of production and sold on the
market in a given time period.

GNP is calculated by adding the value of expenditure on final goods and services produced:

1. Consumption: expenditure by domestic consumers

2. Investment: expenditure by firms on buildings & equipment

3. Government purchases: expenditure by governments on goods and services

4. Current account balance (exports minus imports): net expenditure by foreigners on
domestic goods and services

GNP is value of all final goods and services produced by a country's factors of production. GDP is
volume of production within a country’s borders.

National income identity for closed economy:

NI = GNP

Y=C+I+G

National income identity for open economy

Y = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

Y = sales to domestic residents + sales to foreign residents

Y = C + I + G + CA

Current account (balance) is important concept: it measures size and direction of international
borrowing!

CA deficit ontstaat wanneer een land meer koopt van het buitenland dan verkoopt aan het
buitenland: spending > income of import > export. Wanneer spending > income zal een land moeten
lenen van het buitenland.

→ CA = ∆ foreign wealth

US net foreign wealth () = US-owned foreign assets (/) – foreign-owned US assets (=/)




1

,Valuation effects: In de economie zijn de waarderingseffecten van een land de waardeveranderingen
van activa in het buitenland, verminderd met de waardeveranderingen van binnenlandse activa die
door buitenlandse investeerders worden aangehouden.

Waarderingseffecten zijn de afgelopen twee decennia steeds belangrijker geworden voor de
Verenigde Staten, gezien de dramatische, sterke stijging van de internationale portefeuilles tussen
landen. Voor de Verenigde Staten compenseren de waarderingseffecten gedeeltelijk de tekorten op
de lopende rekening en daarmee de daling van de netto buitenlandse activa.

De amerikaanse portefeuille bestaat in belangrijke mate uit risicodragende effecten. Terwijl de
buitenlandse portfolio veel risicoaverser is. De waarde van de Amerikaanse portefeuille kan dus veel
sneller aangroeien dan de buitenlandse portefeuille.

Als een land jaar na jaar een tekort op de lopende rekening heeft zal de internationale financiële
positie jaar na jaar dalen. Naarmate buitenlandse schuld stijgt zal de bereidheid om nog meer te
lenen aan dat land afnemen en de aantrekkingskracht van de munt van het land verzwakken. Een
zwakkere munt is deel van de oplossing! (Automatische stabilisator) Je kan meer beginnen
exporteren en minder invoeren want voor buitenlanders zijn de binnenlandse producten nu
goedkoper.

Maar niet altijd: Munten van landen met tekorten op londen rekeningen werden soms STERKER. Hoe
komt dit? Door “Carry Trade”: geld lenen van landen waar interestvoet laag is en dit investeren in
landen waar de interestvoet hoog is.



Saving and the Current Account

national saving: the proportion of output that is not devoted to household consumption or
government purchases

S=Y-C-G

closed economy: Y=C+I+G→SI

closed economy can only increase its wealth (save) by accumulating new capital

open economy: Y = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

Y = C + I + G + CA

Y - C - G = I + CA

→ S = I + CA or I = S – CA
• Open economy can save either by building up its capital stock or by acquiring foreign wealth
• S = I + CA means that it is possible to raise investment and foreign borrowing without
changing saving
• Conversely: CA surplus often called net foreign investment




2

, Private and Government Saving

Sp = Y - T – C

Sg = T – G

S = Sp + Sg

Sp = I + CA + (G-T) (Examenvraag: leidt deze formule af uit de nationale inkomensidentiteit)

Waar kan het prive spaargeld naartoe? → Binnenlande investeringen, buitenlandse investeringen, in
de overheid (door bv. Overheidsobligaties aan te kopen).

Hoe meer spaargeld → Hoe Kleiner de kans dat investeerders moeten aankloppen in het buitenland
→ Hoe Kleiner de kans op een tekort op lopende rekening.

Examenvraag: Wat is het gevolg van een begrotingstekort?

Hoe groter begrotingstekort → Minder spaargeld voor investeerders want binnenlands spaargeld
wordt eerst afgeroomd naar overheid → Geld voor investeringen moet gehaald worden in het
buitenland door investeerders → Tekort op lopende rekening.



Balance of Payments Accounts

Definition: "a detailed record of the composition of the current account balance and of the many
transactions that finance it"; “keep track of both the country‘s payments to and receipts from
foreigners”.




3

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