Black Board CDP - Module 1
10 Standards by which the AF measures Analytic Excellence - ANS-Timeliness,
Appropriate Sourcing, Accuracy, Level of Confidence, Assumptions versus Judgement,
Alternative Analysis, Relevance, Logical Argumentation, Utility, Customer Engagement
2 Steps of AIM Method - ANS-1. Write down the agreed upon focal issue or question.
2. Create a matrix with the following headers: Options, Pros, Cons, Fixes, Intended
Results of Adopting, Broader Implications of Adopting, Indicators of adopted option.
4 Common Biases in the IC - ANS-Evaluation of Evidence
Perception of Cause and Effect
Estimating Probability
Evaluation of Reporting
4 Mental Blocks to Creative Thinking - ANS-Prejudice
Functional Fixation
Learned Helplessness
Psychological Blocks
4 Steps of the Argument Mapping Method - ANS-1. Create your claim.
2. Support the claim (because)
3. Objections to claim (but)
4. Rebuttals to objections (however)
5 V's of Big Data - ANS-Volume: the amount of data
Velocity: the speed of data production
Variety: the different types of data
Value: how relevant the data is
Veracity: the trustworthiness of the data
6 Modes of Reasoning - ANS-Status Quo
Authoritative
Comparative
Empirical
Scientific
Market
, 7 Common Cognitive Biases - ANS-Bandwagon Effect
Clustering Illusion
Confirmation Bias
Framing Effect
Illusory Correlation
Insensitivity to Sample Size
Mirror Imagining
7 Steps of Alternative Futures Method - ANS-1. Develop the focal issue.
2. Convene a group of experts to brainstorm about the forces and factors that could
affect the issue.
3. Select by consensus the two most critical and uncertain forces.
4. Establish the most relevant endpoint of each factor.
5. Form a Futures Matrix by crossing the true chosen axes.
6. Create "bumper sticker" phrases to capture the future in each quadrant.
7. Generate sign post or indicators for each quadrant that reflect the potential events
and activities that could occur.
8 Elements of Thought - ANS-Purpose
Question at Issue
Information
Interpretation and Inference
Concepts
Assumptions
Implications and Consequences
Point of View
8 Steps of ACH - ANS-1. Clearly define the intelligence question.
2. List all significant evidence and assumptions relevant to the question.
3. Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence along the side.
4. Refine matrix and delete evidence that have no diagnostic value.
5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Try to
disprove them.
6. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence.
7. Report conclusions.
8. Identify milestones.
9 Barriers to reasoning - ANS-Perception
Bounded Rationality (Limited Rationality)
Implications for Analysts
10 Standards by which the AF measures Analytic Excellence - ANS-Timeliness,
Appropriate Sourcing, Accuracy, Level of Confidence, Assumptions versus Judgement,
Alternative Analysis, Relevance, Logical Argumentation, Utility, Customer Engagement
2 Steps of AIM Method - ANS-1. Write down the agreed upon focal issue or question.
2. Create a matrix with the following headers: Options, Pros, Cons, Fixes, Intended
Results of Adopting, Broader Implications of Adopting, Indicators of adopted option.
4 Common Biases in the IC - ANS-Evaluation of Evidence
Perception of Cause and Effect
Estimating Probability
Evaluation of Reporting
4 Mental Blocks to Creative Thinking - ANS-Prejudice
Functional Fixation
Learned Helplessness
Psychological Blocks
4 Steps of the Argument Mapping Method - ANS-1. Create your claim.
2. Support the claim (because)
3. Objections to claim (but)
4. Rebuttals to objections (however)
5 V's of Big Data - ANS-Volume: the amount of data
Velocity: the speed of data production
Variety: the different types of data
Value: how relevant the data is
Veracity: the trustworthiness of the data
6 Modes of Reasoning - ANS-Status Quo
Authoritative
Comparative
Empirical
Scientific
Market
, 7 Common Cognitive Biases - ANS-Bandwagon Effect
Clustering Illusion
Confirmation Bias
Framing Effect
Illusory Correlation
Insensitivity to Sample Size
Mirror Imagining
7 Steps of Alternative Futures Method - ANS-1. Develop the focal issue.
2. Convene a group of experts to brainstorm about the forces and factors that could
affect the issue.
3. Select by consensus the two most critical and uncertain forces.
4. Establish the most relevant endpoint of each factor.
5. Form a Futures Matrix by crossing the true chosen axes.
6. Create "bumper sticker" phrases to capture the future in each quadrant.
7. Generate sign post or indicators for each quadrant that reflect the potential events
and activities that could occur.
8 Elements of Thought - ANS-Purpose
Question at Issue
Information
Interpretation and Inference
Concepts
Assumptions
Implications and Consequences
Point of View
8 Steps of ACH - ANS-1. Clearly define the intelligence question.
2. List all significant evidence and assumptions relevant to the question.
3. Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence along the side.
4. Refine matrix and delete evidence that have no diagnostic value.
5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Try to
disprove them.
6. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence.
7. Report conclusions.
8. Identify milestones.
9 Barriers to reasoning - ANS-Perception
Bounded Rationality (Limited Rationality)
Implications for Analysts
