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  • Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam (EUR)
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Besliskunde aantekeningen colleges 22/23

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2022/2023 Written for academic year
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Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam (EUR)
Course
Besliskunde
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Besliskunde aantekeningen colleges 22/23

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Besliskunde aantekeningen colleges

College 1 – 4 april 2023
 terugkijken canvas

College 2 – 11 April 2023
Beslisbomen  moet je kunnen maken op tentamen
- Manier om beslistabel grafisch weer te geven
- Vooral nuttig bij het nemen van opeenvolgende beslissingen
Beslissingen: vierkantjes
Gebeurtenissen: rondjes

Mogelijke keuzes betreden van markt:
- Agressief
- Neutraal
- Voorzichtig
Toekomstscenario’s markt:
- Sterk
- Zwak

Waarde van perfecte informatie
Expected value with perfect information (EVwPI)
- Gemiddelde lange termijn uitkomst bij perfecte informatie (voorkennis)
Expected value perfect information (EVPI)
- De waarde van perfecte voorkennis (bedrag dat we zouden willen betalen voor
informatie over de toekomst)

EVPI = EVwPI – Maximale EMV

Imperfecte informatie
Conditionele kansen:

, Formule van Bayes:




Waarde van imperfecte informatie
Marktonderzoek geeft extra (niet volledig betrouwbare) informatie over de markt.
Uitslag van het onderzoek:
- Bemoedigend -> voorspelling op de sterke markt
- Ontmoedigend -> voorspelling op zwakke markt
Voorspelling niet 100% accuraat:
- Bij bemoedigende voorspelling is de kans op een sterke markt gelijk aan 62.1%
- Bij ontmoedigende voorspelling is de kans op een zwakke markt gelijk aan 68.1%

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October 4, 2023
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  • aantekeningen
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