Envisioning the Future
Kickoff Lecture - Roy Bendor
- There is not only one future, there are many possible futures
- foresight IS NOT prediction
The Futures cone
- preposterous: black swans, wild card futures
1970→ the limits of growth, we then already knew the world would get fked up
The principle = past experiences shape our expectations of the future, allowing us to
‘control the future’ by planning for it
The Two Faces of Futures Studies
Anticipate the future in order to reduce Embrace future uncertainties in order to
uncertainty and increase control open up new possibilities for change
(first part of the coarse) (second part of the coarse)
Lecture week 2 - Histories of the Future
We are all committed to something that doesn’t exist → the future
Design = interventionist = future oriented
- Design reconfigures sense of future possibilities
- Future orientation is culturally and historically specific too
- Future changes over time
- Time can be cyclical or linear → cyclical: santa claus comes every year / linear→
things you can’t predict for sure
- Imagined relationship between past/ present/ future changes too
- How do we get data?
Futurology = systematic study of the future
- Interdisciplinary
- Time: long-term (25-30 years)
- Space: global
- Key players: military (technological forecasting), RAND (technocratic forecasting),
Take-aways: Our engagement with the future…
- can be historicized
- is relatively new
- is related to the zeitgeist
- is diverse, e.g. scientific of sphere of protest
- is not without consequences
, Lecture week 3 - Future Visioning for Design Roadmapping
Two important sources of future visioning:
1. Imagination and how it is shared within teams of an organization
2. Trend foresights and which techniques you can choose from to provide input for your
future vision
Imagination
Definition: Human beings have the creative faculty of mental time travel, which allows to go
forward in time, to foresee, plan, and shape virtually any specific future event in our
imagination.
- Source of the future
- Human capacity
- Designers play a role in catalyzing imagination within organizations
- Mental model
- Imaginations are articulated with material practices in collective conversations on
future sense making
2007 Microsoft video
- A lot of focus on interaction
Future vision
Definition: an expression of a desired future
- Desired future is important from an organizational perspective because it provides a
strategic reference point (a common image that people in the organization have in
mind to make decisions)
Future visioning in a strategic design perspective
Kickoff Lecture - Roy Bendor
- There is not only one future, there are many possible futures
- foresight IS NOT prediction
The Futures cone
- preposterous: black swans, wild card futures
1970→ the limits of growth, we then already knew the world would get fked up
The principle = past experiences shape our expectations of the future, allowing us to
‘control the future’ by planning for it
The Two Faces of Futures Studies
Anticipate the future in order to reduce Embrace future uncertainties in order to
uncertainty and increase control open up new possibilities for change
(first part of the coarse) (second part of the coarse)
Lecture week 2 - Histories of the Future
We are all committed to something that doesn’t exist → the future
Design = interventionist = future oriented
- Design reconfigures sense of future possibilities
- Future orientation is culturally and historically specific too
- Future changes over time
- Time can be cyclical or linear → cyclical: santa claus comes every year / linear→
things you can’t predict for sure
- Imagined relationship between past/ present/ future changes too
- How do we get data?
Futurology = systematic study of the future
- Interdisciplinary
- Time: long-term (25-30 years)
- Space: global
- Key players: military (technological forecasting), RAND (technocratic forecasting),
Take-aways: Our engagement with the future…
- can be historicized
- is relatively new
- is related to the zeitgeist
- is diverse, e.g. scientific of sphere of protest
- is not without consequences
, Lecture week 3 - Future Visioning for Design Roadmapping
Two important sources of future visioning:
1. Imagination and how it is shared within teams of an organization
2. Trend foresights and which techniques you can choose from to provide input for your
future vision
Imagination
Definition: Human beings have the creative faculty of mental time travel, which allows to go
forward in time, to foresee, plan, and shape virtually any specific future event in our
imagination.
- Source of the future
- Human capacity
- Designers play a role in catalyzing imagination within organizations
- Mental model
- Imaginations are articulated with material practices in collective conversations on
future sense making
2007 Microsoft video
- A lot of focus on interaction
Future vision
Definition: an expression of a desired future
- Desired future is important from an organizational perspective because it provides a
strategic reference point (a common image that people in the organization have in
mind to make decisions)
Future visioning in a strategic design perspective
