ESTIMATES OF DYNAMICS OF THE COVID- 19 PANDEMIC AND OF ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY WELL RESEARCHED 100% UARANTEED SCORE

ESTIMATES OF DYNAMICS OF THE COVID- 19 PANDEMIC AND OF ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY WELL RESEARCHED 100% UARANTEED SCORE Introduction During the current period marked by the pandemic, together with unprecedented actions required to improve the health system, it is necessary a firm preparation of the economy for a new crisis, also expected as an unprecedented one. First of all, the estimations, taking into account evaluation from the health and economic perspectives, are seriously affected by the answer to the questions of how much the epidemic will expand among the citizens and how long will last the period until when this pandemic may be stopped. After the official announcement of the World Health Organization (WHO) about the Covid19 pandemic there have been published several studies on this topic. Many authors concentrate their analyses on the medical side, trying to estimate how much will the medical system be exposed at the maximum expansion level of this virus. Other authors try to directly model the expansion mechanism within the population, as are those presenting simulation models to evaluate instantaneously the dynamics of pandemic, on some specialised web sites or in dedicated articles (Harpedanne, 2020). Although it is recognised that the uncertainty regarding the evolution and duration of coronavirus crisis makes it exceedingly difficult to forecast losses in the GDP growth or to propose solutions for economic recovery, some authors attempted to evaluate the impact on certain economic sectors, (Ataguba, Ivanov, Karnon, Sirkeci and Yucesahin, Zhang et al., etc.). A remarkable study approaches the subject of macroeconomics of epidemics, in which the authors expose a complex macroeconomic model and simulate certain scenarios of the impact of pandemic (Eichenbaum et al., 2020). Other papers study the impact of coronavirus pandemic on the whole economy (Barro et al., 2020; Correia et al., 2020; IMF, 2020; Jordà et al., 2020; Kohlscheen et al., 2020; McKibbin and Fernando, 2020; OECD, 2020; Saez and Zucman, 2020; UNCTAD, 2020). A significant idea derived from the published studies is that in the absence of some estimates of the extent to which the population will be affected and the period of epidemic expansion (at global, regional and national levels), it will be difficult to evaluate the impact on the macroeconomic framework and to establish the correct economic policy measures. Therefore, based on the last available statistical data (June 9), in this study we try firstly to estimate the size and phases of the epidemic and, secondly, to evaluate its aggregate impact on the economy for this year, at three levels (global, EU, and national).