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The Psychology of Conspiracy Beliefs: Examining the Predictive Roles of Anxiety, Social Trust,
and Perceived Threat Among South African Adults
Abstract
Conspiracy beliefs have become a pervasive feature of contemporary social and political life, with
significant consequences for public health, democratic engagement, and social cohesion. This study
examined the predictive relationships between anxiety, social trust, perceived threat, and conspiracy
beliefs among a sample of South African adults. Using a quantitative, cross-sectional survey design,
data were collected from a convenience sample of 350 South African adults aged 18 years and older.
Participants completed the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale, measures of anxiety and perceived
threat, and a measure of social trust. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to test
four research hypotheses. Consistent with expectations, anxiety was positively associated with
conspiracy beliefs, social trust was negatively associated with conspiracy beliefs, and perceived
threat was positively associated with conspiracy beliefs. When entered simultaneously in a
regression model controlling for age, gender, education, and socioeconomic status, all three
predictors emerged as significant unique predictors of conspiracy beliefs, with perceived threat
accounting for the largest proportion of unique variance. The findings suggest that emotional distress,
interpersonal distrust, and perceptions of threat from outgroups or institutions all contribute
independently to the endorsement of conspiracy theories. The results extend the applicability of
conspiracy belief research to the South African context and highlight the importance of addressing
multiple psychological mechanisms in interventions aimed at reducing harmful conspiracism.
Introduction
Conspiracy beliefs have become a pervasive feature of contemporary social and political life,
influencing everything from public health behaviours to democratic engagement. These beliefs are
not merely fringe phenomena but represent structured cognitive and motivational responses to
perceived threats, uncertainty, and social dynamics (Douglas, Sutton, & Cichocka, 2017). The
psychological study of conspiracy beliefs has grown substantially over the past decade, revealing
that such beliefs emerge from complex interactions among personality traits, cognitive biases,
emotional states, and socio-cultural contexts. Importantly, conspiracy beliefs also exert significant
causal effects on trust, prosocial behaviour, prejudice, and mental well-being, creating bidirectional
relationships that can perpetuate and amplify conspiracist thinking over time (van Prooijen &
Douglas, 2018).
The South African context provides a particularly instructive case study for understanding
conspiracy beliefs, as the country has experienced both devastating health-related conspiracy
theories—such as HIV/AIDS denialism that cost hundreds of thousands of lives—and legitimate
conspiracies such as State Capture, which complicate the distinction between adaptive scepticism
and maladaptive conspiracism (Nattrass, 2008; State Capture Commission, 2022). This research
project aims to investigate the relationships between anxiety, social trust, perceived threat, and
conspiracy beliefs among a South African sample, addressing significant gaps in the literature
regarding how these psychological factors jointly predict conspiracist thinking within a post-colonial,
highly unequal society. By examining the unique and combined contributions of these predictors, the
study will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying
conspiracy beliefs and inform interventions designed to reduce harmful conspiracism while
preserving healthy scepticism toward actual abuses of power.
The Psychology of Conspiracy Beliefs: Examining the Predictive Roles of Anxiety, Social Trust,
and Perceived Threat Among South African Adults
Abstract
Conspiracy beliefs have become a pervasive feature of contemporary social and political life, with
significant consequences for public health, democratic engagement, and social cohesion. This study
examined the predictive relationships between anxiety, social trust, perceived threat, and conspiracy
beliefs among a sample of South African adults. Using a quantitative, cross-sectional survey design,
data were collected from a convenience sample of 350 South African adults aged 18 years and older.
Participants completed the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale, measures of anxiety and perceived
threat, and a measure of social trust. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to test
four research hypotheses. Consistent with expectations, anxiety was positively associated with
conspiracy beliefs, social trust was negatively associated with conspiracy beliefs, and perceived
threat was positively associated with conspiracy beliefs. When entered simultaneously in a
regression model controlling for age, gender, education, and socioeconomic status, all three
predictors emerged as significant unique predictors of conspiracy beliefs, with perceived threat
accounting for the largest proportion of unique variance. The findings suggest that emotional distress,
interpersonal distrust, and perceptions of threat from outgroups or institutions all contribute
independently to the endorsement of conspiracy theories. The results extend the applicability of
conspiracy belief research to the South African context and highlight the importance of addressing
multiple psychological mechanisms in interventions aimed at reducing harmful conspiracism.
Introduction
Conspiracy beliefs have become a pervasive feature of contemporary social and political life,
influencing everything from public health behaviours to democratic engagement. These beliefs are
not merely fringe phenomena but represent structured cognitive and motivational responses to
perceived threats, uncertainty, and social dynamics (Douglas, Sutton, & Cichocka, 2017). The
psychological study of conspiracy beliefs has grown substantially over the past decade, revealing
that such beliefs emerge from complex interactions among personality traits, cognitive biases,
emotional states, and socio-cultural contexts. Importantly, conspiracy beliefs also exert significant
causal effects on trust, prosocial behaviour, prejudice, and mental well-being, creating bidirectional
relationships that can perpetuate and amplify conspiracist thinking over time (van Prooijen &
Douglas, 2018).
The South African context provides a particularly instructive case study for understanding
conspiracy beliefs, as the country has experienced both devastating health-related conspiracy
theories—such as HIV/AIDS denialism that cost hundreds of thousands of lives—and legitimate
conspiracies such as State Capture, which complicate the distinction between adaptive scepticism
and maladaptive conspiracism (Nattrass, 2008; State Capture Commission, 2022). This research
project aims to investigate the relationships between anxiety, social trust, perceived threat, and
conspiracy beliefs among a South African sample, addressing significant gaps in the literature
regarding how these psychological factors jointly predict conspiracist thinking within a post-colonial,
highly unequal society. By examining the unique and combined contributions of these predictors, the
study will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying
conspiracy beliefs and inform interventions designed to reduce harmful conspiracism while
preserving healthy scepticism toward actual abuses of power.
