UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA
College of Human Sciences | Department of Criminology and Security Science
⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄⋄
CMY4804: Risk Assessment, Crim-
inal Profiling and Crime Analysis
Assignment 2 | Semester 2, 2026
⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄⋄
CMY4804
Module Code:
Criminological Assessment, Profiling and
Module Name:
Crime Analysis
Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and
Essay Topic:
Theoretical Framework: S.X. Mkhwanazi
Assignment 2
Assignment Number:
15 September 2026
Due Date:
90
Total Marks:
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for CMY4804, UNISA 2026
,UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Profiling and Crime Analysis: S.X. Mkhwanazi
1. Introduction
Risk assessment and criminal profiling occupy an increasingly central position in the South
African criminal justice system, informing decisions that range from bail and pre-trial de-
tention to sentencing, correctional classification and parole (Bonta, 2002; Labuschagne,
2003). This assignment addresses three interrelated tasks. First, it identifies and explains
the significance of risk assessment and criminal profiling in the South African criminal jus-
tice system, supported by recent and relevant literature. Second, it categorises and analyses
the criminal behaviour of Simphiwe Xolani Mkhwanazi, an adult male convicted in 2026 by
the Mpumalanga Division of the High Court, sitting in Breyten, on ten counts including mur-
der, four counts of rape, two counts of kidnapping, two counts of robbery with aggravating
circumstances, and defeating the administration of justice (National Prosecuting Authority
[NPA], 2026; Mkhwanazi v S, 2026). Third, it develops a theoretical framework, limited to three
theories, that accounts for the pattern of offending established at trial.
The discussion proceeds through a criminological pre-sentence evaluation report structured
around identifying information, biographical detail and its limitations, the nature of the crim-
inal events, and victim impact, before turning to risk assessment, offender profiling, crime
categorisation and analysis, and the theoretical framework. Because this assignment is com-
piled from information in the public domain, namely the reported judgment and the National
Prosecuting Authority’s media statement, it does not have access to the offender interview,
collateral informant material, correctional records or psychometric data that would ordinarily
inform a full forensic criminological assessment. This limitation is made explicit through-
out rather than concealed, consistent with the ethical obligation on criminologists compiling
pre-sentence material not to overstate the certainty of conclusions drawn from incomplete
information (Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn, 2019).
Page 2 of 18
, UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Profiling and Crime Analysis: S.X. Mkhwanazi
2. Definitions of Key Concepts
2.1 Serial rape
Serial rape refers to the commission of two or more separate acts of rape by the same of-
fender, against different victims, on distinct occasions separated by a cooling-off period,
rather than a single continuous episode against one victim. The concept is derived from the
broader study of serial offending, in which repetition, a discernible pattern across incidents,
and the persistence of an underlying behavioural signature distinguish the serial offender
from the situational or opportunistic first-time offender (Schlesinger, 2000). Applied to the
case under review, the four separate rape convictions, arising from at least three distinct
incidents between July 2021 and August 2023 in the Amersfoort and Daggakraal areas of
Mpumalanga, satisfy this definition: different victims, separated occasions, and a recurring
method of approach (NPA, 2026).
2.2 Risk assessment
Risk assessment is the structured process of estimating the likelihood that an individual will
engage in future harmful, violent or reoffending behaviour, and of identifying the static and
dynamic factors that elevate or reduce that likelihood, so that the criminal justice system
can calibrate its response accordingly (Bonta, 2002). In the South African correctional envi-
ronment specifically, risk assessment is applied at admission and at continuing intervals to
classify offenders according to the danger they pose to themselves, to other inmates, and to
the community, and to direct the intensity of monitoring and intervention that follows (Just
Africa, 2023).
2.3 Pre-sentence report
A pre-sentence report (PSR) is a criminological or social-work document, compiled under
section 274 of the Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977, that assists a court in individualising
sentence by evaluating the offender’s personal circumstances, the nature and impact of the
offence, and the risk the offender presents, alongside recommendations relevant to sentenc-
ing and rehabilitation (Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn, 2019). Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn (2019) show
that forensic criminologists contribute to this process by assessing, analysing and contextu-
alising the offender’s conduct so that the sentencing court receives a more complete picture
Page 3 of 18
College of Human Sciences | Department of Criminology and Security Science
⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄⋄
CMY4804: Risk Assessment, Crim-
inal Profiling and Crime Analysis
Assignment 2 | Semester 2, 2026
⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄ ⋄⋄
CMY4804
Module Code:
Criminological Assessment, Profiling and
Module Name:
Crime Analysis
Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and
Essay Topic:
Theoretical Framework: S.X. Mkhwanazi
Assignment 2
Assignment Number:
15 September 2026
Due Date:
90
Total Marks:
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for CMY4804, UNISA 2026
,UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Profiling and Crime Analysis: S.X. Mkhwanazi
1. Introduction
Risk assessment and criminal profiling occupy an increasingly central position in the South
African criminal justice system, informing decisions that range from bail and pre-trial de-
tention to sentencing, correctional classification and parole (Bonta, 2002; Labuschagne,
2003). This assignment addresses three interrelated tasks. First, it identifies and explains
the significance of risk assessment and criminal profiling in the South African criminal jus-
tice system, supported by recent and relevant literature. Second, it categorises and analyses
the criminal behaviour of Simphiwe Xolani Mkhwanazi, an adult male convicted in 2026 by
the Mpumalanga Division of the High Court, sitting in Breyten, on ten counts including mur-
der, four counts of rape, two counts of kidnapping, two counts of robbery with aggravating
circumstances, and defeating the administration of justice (National Prosecuting Authority
[NPA], 2026; Mkhwanazi v S, 2026). Third, it develops a theoretical framework, limited to three
theories, that accounts for the pattern of offending established at trial.
The discussion proceeds through a criminological pre-sentence evaluation report structured
around identifying information, biographical detail and its limitations, the nature of the crim-
inal events, and victim impact, before turning to risk assessment, offender profiling, crime
categorisation and analysis, and the theoretical framework. Because this assignment is com-
piled from information in the public domain, namely the reported judgment and the National
Prosecuting Authority’s media statement, it does not have access to the offender interview,
collateral informant material, correctional records or psychometric data that would ordinarily
inform a full forensic criminological assessment. This limitation is made explicit through-
out rather than concealed, consistent with the ethical obligation on criminologists compiling
pre-sentence material not to overstate the certainty of conclusions drawn from incomplete
information (Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn, 2019).
Page 2 of 18
, UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Profiling and Crime Analysis: S.X. Mkhwanazi
2. Definitions of Key Concepts
2.1 Serial rape
Serial rape refers to the commission of two or more separate acts of rape by the same of-
fender, against different victims, on distinct occasions separated by a cooling-off period,
rather than a single continuous episode against one victim. The concept is derived from the
broader study of serial offending, in which repetition, a discernible pattern across incidents,
and the persistence of an underlying behavioural signature distinguish the serial offender
from the situational or opportunistic first-time offender (Schlesinger, 2000). Applied to the
case under review, the four separate rape convictions, arising from at least three distinct
incidents between July 2021 and August 2023 in the Amersfoort and Daggakraal areas of
Mpumalanga, satisfy this definition: different victims, separated occasions, and a recurring
method of approach (NPA, 2026).
2.2 Risk assessment
Risk assessment is the structured process of estimating the likelihood that an individual will
engage in future harmful, violent or reoffending behaviour, and of identifying the static and
dynamic factors that elevate or reduce that likelihood, so that the criminal justice system
can calibrate its response accordingly (Bonta, 2002). In the South African correctional envi-
ronment specifically, risk assessment is applied at admission and at continuing intervals to
classify offenders according to the danger they pose to themselves, to other inmates, and to
the community, and to direct the intensity of monitoring and intervention that follows (Just
Africa, 2023).
2.3 Pre-sentence report
A pre-sentence report (PSR) is a criminological or social-work document, compiled under
section 274 of the Criminal Procedure Act 51 of 1977, that assists a court in individualising
sentence by evaluating the offender’s personal circumstances, the nature and impact of the
offence, and the risk the offender presents, alongside recommendations relevant to sentenc-
ing and rehabilitation (Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn, 2019). Diko, Olofinbiyi and Steyn (2019) show
that forensic criminologists contribute to this process by assessing, analysing and contextu-
alising the offender’s conduct so that the sentencing court receives a more complete picture
Page 3 of 18
