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128 Questions with Answers and Detailed Rationales
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Review Summary 128 Questions
Foundations - Application - ISYE 6402 Homework 4 AND Solutions 2026 Updated 100 Correct - GT TIME
Series Analysis ISYE 6402 Graduate
All answers with rationales
,Table of Contents
Content Area Questions Key Topics
TIME Series Analysis 1-22 Model, Series, Arima, Appropriate, Process
Arima Models 23-44 Model, Process, Arima, Variance, State
Seasonality AND 45-66 Matrix, Series, Process, Model, Interarrival Times
Decomposition
Forecasting Methods 67-88 Model, Context, Gaussian, Kernel, Variance
Model Selection AND 89-110 Model, Series, Trend, Appropriate, Primary
Diagnostics
Exponential Smoothing 111-128 Models, Arima, Series, Appropriate, Context
TOTAL 128 All questions include answers and detailed rationales
,Section A - TIME Series Analysis
Q1.
Given a time series with sample ACF showing a damped sine wave and PACF having a
significant spike at lag 2, which model is most appropriate?
A. AR(2) B. MA(2)
C. ARMA(1,1) D. AR(1)
Correct: A - AR(2)
Rationale:A damped sine wave in the ACF with a cutoff in the PACF at lag 2 indicates a
second-order autoregressive process. MA(2) would show the opposite pattern (cutoff in ACF,
damped sine in PACF). ARMA(1,1) would exhibit exponential decay in both, and AR(1) would
have a single significant PACF spike.
Q2.
In the method of moments estimation for an AR(2) process, which equations are used to
estimate the parameters?
A. Yule-Walker equations B. Least squares normal equations
C. Cramér-Rao lower bound equations D. Maximum likelihood score equations
Correct: A - Yule-Walker equations
Rationale:The Yule-Walker equations relate the autocovariances to the AR parameters,
derived from the method of moments. Least squares is a different estimation approach,
Cramér-Rao provides a bound, and maximum likelihood uses a different optimization
criterion.
Q3.
Which information criterion balances model fit and parsimony by penalizing the number of
parameters more heavily?
A. AIC B. BIC
C. MSE D. R-squared
Correct: B - BIC
Rationale:BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) includes a penalty term of k*ln(n), which is
larger than AIC's 2k for n > 7, thus favoring simpler models. MSE and R-squared do not
penalize complexity.
Page 3
, Section A - TIME Series Analysis
Q4.
After fitting an ARIMA model, the Ljung-Box test on residuals yields a p-value of 0.03.
What does this indicate?
A. The residuals are white noise. B. There is significant autocorrelation in
residuals.
C. The model is overparameterized. D. The residuals are normally distributed.
Correct: B - There is significant autocorrelation in residuals.
Rationale:A p-value below the significance level (e.g., 0.05) leads to rejection of the null
hypothesis of no autocorrelation, implying residual autocorrelation remains. This suggests the
model is inadequate.
Q5.
For a random walk with drift, what is the variance of the k-step-ahead forecast error?
A. k * ² B. ²
C. k² * ² D. k * ²
Correct: A - k * ²
Rationale:The forecast error variance grows linearly with the forecast horizon, as each step
adds independent noise. Thus, Var(e_t(k)) = k * ².
Q6.
Which method is most appropriate for estimating the spectral density of a time series with
a sharp peak at a specific frequency?
A. Periodogram without smoothing B. Daniell kernel with large bandwidth
C. Autoregressive spectral estimation with D. Welch's method with small window length
high order
Correct: C - Autoregressive spectral estimation with high order
Rationale:Autoregressive spectral estimation can model sharp peaks well if the order is
sufficiently high. The periodogram is noisy, smoothing reduces peak resolution, and small
windows in Welch's method reduce frequency resolution.
Q7.
Which of the following is a necessary condition for a seasonal ARIMA model to be
stationary?
Page 4