SUMMER 2026 | QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS | 100% CORRECT - GT.
140 Questions with Answers and Detailed Rationales
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ISYE 6402 OFFICIAL MIDTERM 1 MC SUMMER 2026 | QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS | 100% CORRECT - GT..
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Review Summary 140 Questions
Foundations - Application - ISYE 6402 Official 1 MC Summer 2026 AND 100 Correct - GT Industrial AND
Systems Engineering TIME Series Analysis Graduate
All answers with rationales
,Table of Contents
Content Area Questions Key Topics
TIME Series Analysis 1-24 Series, Model, Autocorrelation, Arima, Appropriate
Fundamentals
Stationarity AND 25-48 Model, Regression, TIME Series, Appropriate, Trend
Autocorrelation
Arima Models 49-72 Series, Model, Primary, Context, Stationary
Seasonality AND 73-96 Model, Arima, Series, Seasonal, Appropriate
Decomposition
Forecasting Methods AND 97-120 Series, Model, Smoothing, Exponential, Control
Accuracy Measures
Model Selection AND 121-140 Series, Appropriate, Process, Forecasting, Models
Diagnostics
TOTAL 140 All questions include answers and detailed rationales
,Section A - TIME Series Analysis Fundamentals
Q1.
Given a stationary time series with autocorrelation function (ACF) that cuts off after lag 2
and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) that tails off, which model is most
appropriate?
A. MA(2) B. AR(2)
C. ARMA(1,1) D. ARIMA(0,2,2)
Correct: A - MA(2)
Rationale:For an MA(q) process, the ACF cuts off after lag q while the PACF tails off. Here,
ACF cuts off after lag 2, so MA(2) is correct. AR(2) would show PACF cutoff, ARMA(1,1)
would show tailing off in both, and ARIMA(0,2,2) is nonstationary.
Q2.
In the context of a regression model with AR(1) errors, y_t = x_t + _t, _t = _{t-1} + a_t,
what is the impact of ignoring the autocorrelation when estimating via ordinary least
squares (OLS)?
A. OLS remains unbiased but is inefficient; B. OLS is biased and inconsistent.
standard errors are underestimated.
C. OLS is efficient but biased. D. OLS is unbiased and efficient; only
inference is affected.
Correct: A - OLS remains unbiased but is inefficient; standard errors are underestimated.
Rationale:In the presence of autocorrelated errors, OLS is still unbiased for ², but it is not
efficient (i.e., not BLUE). The standard errors estimated by OLS are typically underestimated,
leading to inflated t-statistics and incorrect inference. GLS or feasible GLS should be used for
efficiency.
Q3.
For a nonstationary time series that is integrated of order 2, I(2), what is the correct
transformation to achieve stationarity?
A. Take the first difference of the series. B. Take the second difference of the series.
C. Apply a logarithmic transformation. D. Deseasonalize the series.
Correct: B - Take the second difference of the series.
Page 3
, Section A - TIME Series Analysis Fundamentals
Rationale: A series integrated of order 2 requires differencing twice to become stationary.
First differencing reduces the order by one, leaving an I(1) series. Log transformations can
stabilize variance but do not remove unit roots. Deseasonalization addresses seasonality, not
nonstationarity.
Q4.
Which of the following is a key difference between the Box-Jenkins approach and the
structural time series approach?
A. Box-Jenkins models are based on the B. Box-Jenkins models require stationarity,
data alone, while structural models while structural models do not.
incorporate explanatory variables.
C. Structural models are always univariate, D. Box-Jenkins uses maximum likelihood
while Box-Jenkins can handle multivariate estimation, while structural models use
series. method of moments.
Correct: A - Box-Jenkins models are based on the data alone, while structural models
incorporate explanatory variables.
Rationale:The Box-Jenkins approach relies on identifying ARIMA models solely from the
autocorrelation structure of the data, whereas structural time series models explicitly
decompose the series into components like trend, seasonal, and cycle, and can include
explanatory variables. Both can handle nonstationarity (via differencing or trend components)
and both typically use maximum likelihood.
Q5.
For a seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)_12 model, what is the total number of AR parameters?
A. 1 B. 2
C. 12 D. 13
Correct: B - 2
Rationale:The model has a non-seasonal AR(1) term and a seasonal AR(1) term at lag 12.
Thus, there are two AR parameters: one for lag 1 and one for lag 12. The total number of AR
parameters is 2.
Q6.
In the context of model selection, what is the primary trade-off when using the Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC) versus the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)?
A. AIC penalizes complexity more heavily B. BIC penalizes complexity more heavily
than BIC, leading to simpler models. than AIC, leading to more parsimonious
models.
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