https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
ISYE 6501 HOMEWORK 4 2026 GUARANTEED
SUCCESSS ALL NEEDED TO PASS
Problem 7.1
Every week, my family and I buy cartons of eggs to bake desserts, eat eggs for breakfast,
and
cook eggs sometimes for dinner. Using exponential smoothing, I want to forecast how
many eggs
we’ll need next week so we don’t run out or buy more than needed. Some data that would
be
needed is the historical weekly egg purchases (how many dozens each week) and unusual
Value of a will be 0 or 1. If my family’s egg use is steady and consistent week to week, a
weeks
should
like holidays, baking, or guests which could lead to higher consumption.
be closer to 0, which smooths out random fluctuations. If egg use varies a lot more than
usual, a
For weekly
should egg to
be loser usage,
1, somy
thefamily andadapts
forecast I generally
more expect
quicklyato
torecent
be closer to 0, since
behavior.
we are
consistent throughout the week with how much egg we use with occasional spikes.
Problem 7.2
Methodology (Also shown in R file):
First, I loaded in the temps.txt file and assigned it to “temps”. Then, I unlisted the
dataset so it
can be converted into a time series and assigned it to “temps1.” I also plotted temps1,
which is
plotting all 2,460 values from 1996-2015 in one long series.
https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
,https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
Then, I used the time series function and assigned it to “ts_temps.” I also plotted
ts_temps which
is shown below.
Using the time series function, we start with 1996 since it’s the beginning of the data set,
and the
frequency is 123 since there’s 123 rows of data so it from one year to the next. It is hard to
tell
any trends happening since the plot fluctuates a lot. I used the decompose function next
to see
more about the trends.
https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
ISYE 6501 HOMEWORK 4 2026 GUARANTEED
SUCCESSS ALL NEEDED TO PASS
Problem 7.1
Every week, my family and I buy cartons of eggs to bake desserts, eat eggs for breakfast,
and
cook eggs sometimes for dinner. Using exponential smoothing, I want to forecast how
many eggs
we’ll need next week so we don’t run out or buy more than needed. Some data that would
be
needed is the historical weekly egg purchases (how many dozens each week) and unusual
Value of a will be 0 or 1. If my family’s egg use is steady and consistent week to week, a
weeks
should
like holidays, baking, or guests which could lead to higher consumption.
be closer to 0, which smooths out random fluctuations. If egg use varies a lot more than
usual, a
For weekly
should egg to
be loser usage,
1, somy
thefamily andadapts
forecast I generally
more expect
quicklyato
torecent
be closer to 0, since
behavior.
we are
consistent throughout the week with how much egg we use with occasional spikes.
Problem 7.2
Methodology (Also shown in R file):
First, I loaded in the temps.txt file and assigned it to “temps”. Then, I unlisted the
dataset so it
can be converted into a time series and assigned it to “temps1.” I also plotted temps1,
which is
plotting all 2,460 values from 1996-2015 in one long series.
https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
,https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
Then, I used the time series function and assigned it to “ts_temps.” I also plotted
ts_temps which
is shown below.
Using the time series function, we start with 1996 since it’s the beginning of the data set,
and the
frequency is 123 since there’s 123 rows of data so it from one year to the next. It is hard to
tell
any trends happening since the plot fluctuates a lot. I used the decompose function next
to see
more about the trends.
https://www.stuvia.com/user/nursecare
