Extended lecture notes for Data and Models in Earth Surface and Water Systems at Universiteit Utrecht (FOR THE MIDTERMS!), covering four core lectures, the reading material and praticals on modeling approaches and data analysis techniques. Topics include modelling concepts (physical, data-driven, empirical, process-based, and hybrid approaches), data wrangling and visualization, statistical modeling and inference, and time-series analysis (AR, MA, and ARIMA models). Well-structured with clear de...