RMI 660 EXAM3 fully solved
& updated
planning fallacy - answer the forecasts are usually unrealistically
close to best case scenario
"planning fallacy" is used to describe plans and forecasts which: -
answer -are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios
-could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
Major errors in forecasting is resulted by: - answer the prevalent
tendency to underweight or ignore distributional information
How to minimize forecasting errors? - answer planners should make
every effort to frame the forecasting question so as to facilitate
utilizing all distributional information available.
reference class forecasting - answer Identify an appropriate
reference class.
Obtain the statistics of the reference class (in terms of cost per mile
of railway, or of the percentage by which expenditures exceeded
budget).
Use the statistics to generate a baseline prediction.
Use specific information about the case to adjust the baseline
prediction, if there are particular reasons to expect the optimistic
& updated
planning fallacy - answer the forecasts are usually unrealistically
close to best case scenario
"planning fallacy" is used to describe plans and forecasts which: -
answer -are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios
-could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
Major errors in forecasting is resulted by: - answer the prevalent
tendency to underweight or ignore distributional information
How to minimize forecasting errors? - answer planners should make
every effort to frame the forecasting question so as to facilitate
utilizing all distributional information available.
reference class forecasting - answer Identify an appropriate
reference class.
Obtain the statistics of the reference class (in terms of cost per mile
of railway, or of the percentage by which expenditures exceeded
budget).
Use the statistics to generate a baseline prediction.
Use specific information about the case to adjust the baseline
prediction, if there are particular reasons to expect the optimistic
