modern
diplomacy
2023-2024
,Table of Contents
1 Diplomacy is what diplomats do ................................................................................................................................. 3
The Socratic fallacy ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
The Practice Turn .......................................................................................................................................................... 3
Deflating diplomacy ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
Realist diplomacy .......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Diplomacy as a craft ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Summing up .................................................................................................................................................................. 4
2 The Organization of Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................... 5
What is diplomacy for? .................................................................................................................................................. 5
Ministry of Foreign Affairs .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Some advice for the Minister’s Chief Advisor ................................................................................................................ 6
Advice for the Minister in choosing and working with their Chief Advisor ...................................................................... 7
The Embassy, Consulate, and Permanent Representation ........................................................................................... 7
3 Ways and Means of Doing Diplomacy ........................................................................................................................ 9
The One Old and the Many New Diplomacies............................................................................................................... 9
Bilateral and Multilateral Diplomacy ............................................................................................................................ 10
Track II Diplomacy....................................................................................................................................................... 11
Networked Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................................. 12
Virtual Diplomacy ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
Public Diplomacy ......................................................................................................................................................... 15
The ‘New Diplomacies’ ................................................................................................................................................ 16
New Topics for Diplomacy: .......................................................................................................................................... 16
New Actors in Diplomacy:............................................................................................................................................ 17
The Changing Nature of Diplomacy: ........................................................................................................................... 17
4 Reasoning in Diplomacy ............................................................................................................................................ 18
The practical syllogism ................................................................................................................................................ 18
Finding and justifying decisions ................................................................................................................................... 19
A non-logic of discovery? ............................................................................................................................................ 19
Reasoning by consequences ...................................................................................................................................... 19
Muddling through?....................................................................................................................................................... 20
A way out: distinguishing fast and slow thinking .......................................................................................................... 21
The logic of justification ............................................................................................................................................... 21
Inductive reasoning ..................................................................................................................................................... 22
Abductive reasoning .................................................................................................................................................... 22
Deductive reasoning.................................................................................................................................................... 23
Conditional reasoning .................................................................................................................................................. 24
Reasoning by analogy ................................................................................................................................................. 25
1
,5 Interactive diplomacy: Game theory and rational empathy .................................................................................... 26
The one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma ............................................................................................................................... 26
The iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma – tit for tat ................................................................................................................ 27
Battle of the Sexes ...................................................................................................................................................... 28
The Chicken Game ..................................................................................................................................................... 29
The Ultimatum Game .................................................................................................................................................. 30
Rational empathy – entering into another’s mind ........................................................................................................ 31
6 Logical Fallacies and Cognitive Traps ...................................................................................................................... 32
Logical fallacies ........................................................................................................................................................... 33
Quasi-logical fallacies.................................................................................................................................................. 34
Cognitive Traps ........................................................................................................................................................... 35
7 Concepts and Principles in Diplomatic Thinking ..................................................................................................... 38
The nature of concepts and principles ......................................................................................................................... 38
Concepts ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Political Concepts ........................................................................................................................................................ 41
Security Concepts ....................................................................................................................................................... 42
Diplomatic Concepts ................................................................................................................................................... 43
Principles ..................................................................................................................................................................... 45
8 Use of Force ................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Diplomacy and Use of Force ....................................................................................................................................... 46
An Evolving Security Landscape – a Preliminary Warning .......................................................................................... 47
Forms of Use of Force................................................................................................................................................. 48
Legitimacy of Use of Force .......................................................................................................................................... 49
Legality and Legitimacy – So, What? .......................................................................................................................... 50
Prudence in Use of Force ............................................................................................................................................ 51
The Conduct of War .................................................................................................................................................... 52
The End of War and Its Aftermath – Just Peace ......................................................................................................... 54
Causes and Reasons of War....................................................................................................................................... 55
2
, 1 Diplomacy is what diplomats do
The Socratic fallacy
1. There are numerous ways to define what diplomacy meant
- Diplomacy means different things to different people at different times
2. Examples of definitions of diplomacy
- Ernest Satow: the application of an intelligence and tact to the conduct of official relations between
independent states
- Harold Nicolson: the management of relations between independent states by the process of
negotiations
3. Ways of approaching diplomacy
- Descriptive approach – focus on diplomatic history
- Critically using history as a way of illuminating the present
- Normative approach – linking diplomacy to int’l law, human rights, and global ethics
- Theoretical approach – through rigorous analytical and conceptual approach of int’l relations
The Practice Turn
1. Practice turn – diplomacy is not just something you study in books; it's something diplomats
actually do in practice
2. The focus is on understanding how diplomacy works in real life, not just its theoretical definition
3. The approach is practical and aims to learn by observing what diplomats do in their daily work,
such as analyzing politics, shaping policies, solving problems, and negotiating
4. This approach doesn't try to create a universal theory or a big system of understanding everything
about diplomacy
- instead, it's about going back to the basics of the craft
5. The basics of diplomacy include making smart policy decisions, effective communication,
negotiation skills, understanding foreign countries, and recognizing limitations
6. Diplomacy is often a quiet and behind-the-scenes activity, not something flashy or showy
7. This approach of looking at what people actually do in their profession, rather than just what the
rules or books say, is not unique to diplomacy
- it's been applied to fields like law and science too. For example, in law, it's called "Legal Realism,"
and in science, it's about looking at what scientists do in their labs, not just the theories they
create
- even mathematics has started looking at "mathematical practice" rather than just mathematical
theories
Deflating diplomacy
1. Diplomacy needs a reality check – we need to look at the “hidden diplo-speak” to reveal the
divide between what a diplomat says and what they’re actually doing
2. Back-channel diplomacy – discussing really controversial and important matters
- Public is kept out and sometimes even other official entrusted delegations are not informed
3. Cold call – surprise call from one leader to another to discuss an important/urgent matter
4. Concorde diplomacy – leaders directly meet in person, diminishing the intermediary role of the
diplomat
3
diplomacy
2023-2024
,Table of Contents
1 Diplomacy is what diplomats do ................................................................................................................................. 3
The Socratic fallacy ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
The Practice Turn .......................................................................................................................................................... 3
Deflating diplomacy ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
Realist diplomacy .......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Diplomacy as a craft ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Summing up .................................................................................................................................................................. 4
2 The Organization of Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................... 5
What is diplomacy for? .................................................................................................................................................. 5
Ministry of Foreign Affairs .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Some advice for the Minister’s Chief Advisor ................................................................................................................ 6
Advice for the Minister in choosing and working with their Chief Advisor ...................................................................... 7
The Embassy, Consulate, and Permanent Representation ........................................................................................... 7
3 Ways and Means of Doing Diplomacy ........................................................................................................................ 9
The One Old and the Many New Diplomacies............................................................................................................... 9
Bilateral and Multilateral Diplomacy ............................................................................................................................ 10
Track II Diplomacy....................................................................................................................................................... 11
Networked Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................................. 12
Virtual Diplomacy ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
Public Diplomacy ......................................................................................................................................................... 15
The ‘New Diplomacies’ ................................................................................................................................................ 16
New Topics for Diplomacy: .......................................................................................................................................... 16
New Actors in Diplomacy:............................................................................................................................................ 17
The Changing Nature of Diplomacy: ........................................................................................................................... 17
4 Reasoning in Diplomacy ............................................................................................................................................ 18
The practical syllogism ................................................................................................................................................ 18
Finding and justifying decisions ................................................................................................................................... 19
A non-logic of discovery? ............................................................................................................................................ 19
Reasoning by consequences ...................................................................................................................................... 19
Muddling through?....................................................................................................................................................... 20
A way out: distinguishing fast and slow thinking .......................................................................................................... 21
The logic of justification ............................................................................................................................................... 21
Inductive reasoning ..................................................................................................................................................... 22
Abductive reasoning .................................................................................................................................................... 22
Deductive reasoning.................................................................................................................................................... 23
Conditional reasoning .................................................................................................................................................. 24
Reasoning by analogy ................................................................................................................................................. 25
1
,5 Interactive diplomacy: Game theory and rational empathy .................................................................................... 26
The one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma ............................................................................................................................... 26
The iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma – tit for tat ................................................................................................................ 27
Battle of the Sexes ...................................................................................................................................................... 28
The Chicken Game ..................................................................................................................................................... 29
The Ultimatum Game .................................................................................................................................................. 30
Rational empathy – entering into another’s mind ........................................................................................................ 31
6 Logical Fallacies and Cognitive Traps ...................................................................................................................... 32
Logical fallacies ........................................................................................................................................................... 33
Quasi-logical fallacies.................................................................................................................................................. 34
Cognitive Traps ........................................................................................................................................................... 35
7 Concepts and Principles in Diplomatic Thinking ..................................................................................................... 38
The nature of concepts and principles ......................................................................................................................... 38
Concepts ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Political Concepts ........................................................................................................................................................ 41
Security Concepts ....................................................................................................................................................... 42
Diplomatic Concepts ................................................................................................................................................... 43
Principles ..................................................................................................................................................................... 45
8 Use of Force ................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Diplomacy and Use of Force ....................................................................................................................................... 46
An Evolving Security Landscape – a Preliminary Warning .......................................................................................... 47
Forms of Use of Force................................................................................................................................................. 48
Legitimacy of Use of Force .......................................................................................................................................... 49
Legality and Legitimacy – So, What? .......................................................................................................................... 50
Prudence in Use of Force ............................................................................................................................................ 51
The Conduct of War .................................................................................................................................................... 52
The End of War and Its Aftermath – Just Peace ......................................................................................................... 54
Causes and Reasons of War....................................................................................................................................... 55
2
, 1 Diplomacy is what diplomats do
The Socratic fallacy
1. There are numerous ways to define what diplomacy meant
- Diplomacy means different things to different people at different times
2. Examples of definitions of diplomacy
- Ernest Satow: the application of an intelligence and tact to the conduct of official relations between
independent states
- Harold Nicolson: the management of relations between independent states by the process of
negotiations
3. Ways of approaching diplomacy
- Descriptive approach – focus on diplomatic history
- Critically using history as a way of illuminating the present
- Normative approach – linking diplomacy to int’l law, human rights, and global ethics
- Theoretical approach – through rigorous analytical and conceptual approach of int’l relations
The Practice Turn
1. Practice turn – diplomacy is not just something you study in books; it's something diplomats
actually do in practice
2. The focus is on understanding how diplomacy works in real life, not just its theoretical definition
3. The approach is practical and aims to learn by observing what diplomats do in their daily work,
such as analyzing politics, shaping policies, solving problems, and negotiating
4. This approach doesn't try to create a universal theory or a big system of understanding everything
about diplomacy
- instead, it's about going back to the basics of the craft
5. The basics of diplomacy include making smart policy decisions, effective communication,
negotiation skills, understanding foreign countries, and recognizing limitations
6. Diplomacy is often a quiet and behind-the-scenes activity, not something flashy or showy
7. This approach of looking at what people actually do in their profession, rather than just what the
rules or books say, is not unique to diplomacy
- it's been applied to fields like law and science too. For example, in law, it's called "Legal Realism,"
and in science, it's about looking at what scientists do in their labs, not just the theories they
create
- even mathematics has started looking at "mathematical practice" rather than just mathematical
theories
Deflating diplomacy
1. Diplomacy needs a reality check – we need to look at the “hidden diplo-speak” to reveal the
divide between what a diplomat says and what they’re actually doing
2. Back-channel diplomacy – discussing really controversial and important matters
- Public is kept out and sometimes even other official entrusted delegations are not informed
3. Cold call – surprise call from one leader to another to discuss an important/urgent matter
4. Concorde diplomacy – leaders directly meet in person, diminishing the intermediary role of the
diplomat
3
