SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY
PART I: INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY & POPULATION STUDIES
CHAPTER 1: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES IN EUROPE
1. WHY DEMOGRAPHY: WHAT IS IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY?
- Demography is the scientific study of population. Some even call it the mathematical study of
population, but mixed methods are increasingly gaining momentum.
- The scientific study of population originated in the 17th century. The publication of John Graunt’s
‘Observations’ in 1662 is often considered to mark the date of birth of the discipline.
- The term ‘démographie’ was only introduced much later in a publication by the Belgian
mathematician Achille Guillard in 1855.
- Demography covers all aspects of population: size, structure, geographic distribution, growth and
decline, as well as causes and consequences of population dynamics.
- Demography is closely intertwined with other disciplines such as sociology, econom(etr)ics, political
sciences, geography, (bio)statistics, epidemiology.
WHY STUDY DEMOGRAPHY?
1. Understanding how demography shapes society
Several aspects of modern society are shaped and affected by changes in size and structure of the
population, e.g. childcare, school systems, labour markets, health care, housing markets, social
security and pension systems, voting behaviour and political systems, migration policies etc.
Awareness of demographic trends will in many cases prove relevant, even if you have no ambition of
becoming a population scientist whatsoever.
2. Demography drives our future
Population dynamics are determined by the current structure of the population (the outcomes of past
demographic trends) and change (current demographic behaviours, net of structure). Populations
have a long-term memory of 80 to 100 years (e.g. age structure), so past demographic trends will
continue to shape European societies for several decades to come.
3. The physics of social sciences
Demographic and actuarial methods have developed for over 350 years. The use of these methods in
other disciplines is pervasive: banking and insurance, social sciences (sociology and social policy
research, economics and econometrics, psychology, political sciences, criminology, …), life sciences
(medicine and biostatistics, epidemiology, …) or even engineering.
Knowledge of demographic methods may prove relevant for job opportunities in adjacent fields, or to
transition into the study of more advanced subjects.
,2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN EUROPE AT A GLANCE
2.1 EUROPE’S SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
PARTNERSHIP FORMATION & DISSOLUTION
- Reversal of trends established between 1880 and 1960
- Rise in age at first marriage:
o Later home leaving
o Premarital cohabitation
o Single living
- Fall in proportions married
- Rise in cohabitation (pre- and postmarital)
o Revenge of history
o Subsequent diffusion
- Rise in divorce, earlier divorce
- Decline of remarriage following divorce and widowhood
MARRIAGE
CRUDE MARRIAGE RATE (CMR)
Definition
Crude rates measure the relative frequency of particular events (e.g. marriages) within the population as a
whole in a specific period of time. In the case of annual crude rates, they are usually obtained by dividing the
number of events in a given year by the average population in that year. The ratios are typically expressed per
1000 inhabitants
Crude marriage rate (marriages per 1000 population)
Crude marriage rate in 2020
Differences between countries: differences in social policies
,TOTAL FIRST MARRIAGE RATE
Definition
The probability of first marriage for a person if he or she were to pass through his/her lifetime conforming to
the age-specific first marriage rates of a given year. The rate refers to a synthetic male or female cohort. It is
computed by the summation of age- specific first marriage rates (generally up to age 49) observed in a given
year. The indicator can exceed 1.00 in years of strong progression of the number of marriages, although it is
excluded that a person can contract more than one first marriage (Council of Europe, 2004).
age
time
2024
Period female total first marriage rate (period TFFMR)
MEAN AGE AT FEMALE FIRST MARRIAGE
Definition
The fertility or first marriage tables for a given observation year show the different age-specific rates. The total
rate summarises these age-specific rates by addition. The mean age in the table for year n is the weighted mean
of the different ages, the weighting factor at age i being the rate fi at that age. The equation for mean age is
therefore:
, Mean age at female first marriage
Mean age of women at first marriage (MAFM, 2017)
CHANGING NUPTIALITY PATTERNS: A FIRST GLANCE
- Crude marriage rates declined in all regions of Europe between 1960 and 2020. The decline started in
Northern Europe, followed by Western, Southern and finally Central and Eastern Europe.
- Decline of marriage is associated with postponement of (first) marriage to olde rages. In case of
postponement, the number of marriages observed in a given year is typically lower (deflated) than
would be the case in absence of postponement.
- The number of marriages observed in a given year will also depend on the age structure of the
population as first marriage (involving younger individuals) are more prevalent than second and third
marriages (involving older individuals).
- A more detailed analysis is needed to understand change in patterns of union formation (including
unmarried cohabitation) and union dissolution net of population structure, clearly distinguishing
between shifts in timing of events over the life course of individuals (tempo component) and shifts in
the number of individuals ultimately experiencing these events (quantum component).
PART I: INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY & POPULATION STUDIES
CHAPTER 1: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES IN EUROPE
1. WHY DEMOGRAPHY: WHAT IS IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY?
- Demography is the scientific study of population. Some even call it the mathematical study of
population, but mixed methods are increasingly gaining momentum.
- The scientific study of population originated in the 17th century. The publication of John Graunt’s
‘Observations’ in 1662 is often considered to mark the date of birth of the discipline.
- The term ‘démographie’ was only introduced much later in a publication by the Belgian
mathematician Achille Guillard in 1855.
- Demography covers all aspects of population: size, structure, geographic distribution, growth and
decline, as well as causes and consequences of population dynamics.
- Demography is closely intertwined with other disciplines such as sociology, econom(etr)ics, political
sciences, geography, (bio)statistics, epidemiology.
WHY STUDY DEMOGRAPHY?
1. Understanding how demography shapes society
Several aspects of modern society are shaped and affected by changes in size and structure of the
population, e.g. childcare, school systems, labour markets, health care, housing markets, social
security and pension systems, voting behaviour and political systems, migration policies etc.
Awareness of demographic trends will in many cases prove relevant, even if you have no ambition of
becoming a population scientist whatsoever.
2. Demography drives our future
Population dynamics are determined by the current structure of the population (the outcomes of past
demographic trends) and change (current demographic behaviours, net of structure). Populations
have a long-term memory of 80 to 100 years (e.g. age structure), so past demographic trends will
continue to shape European societies for several decades to come.
3. The physics of social sciences
Demographic and actuarial methods have developed for over 350 years. The use of these methods in
other disciplines is pervasive: banking and insurance, social sciences (sociology and social policy
research, economics and econometrics, psychology, political sciences, criminology, …), life sciences
(medicine and biostatistics, epidemiology, …) or even engineering.
Knowledge of demographic methods may prove relevant for job opportunities in adjacent fields, or to
transition into the study of more advanced subjects.
,2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN EUROPE AT A GLANCE
2.1 EUROPE’S SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
PARTNERSHIP FORMATION & DISSOLUTION
- Reversal of trends established between 1880 and 1960
- Rise in age at first marriage:
o Later home leaving
o Premarital cohabitation
o Single living
- Fall in proportions married
- Rise in cohabitation (pre- and postmarital)
o Revenge of history
o Subsequent diffusion
- Rise in divorce, earlier divorce
- Decline of remarriage following divorce and widowhood
MARRIAGE
CRUDE MARRIAGE RATE (CMR)
Definition
Crude rates measure the relative frequency of particular events (e.g. marriages) within the population as a
whole in a specific period of time. In the case of annual crude rates, they are usually obtained by dividing the
number of events in a given year by the average population in that year. The ratios are typically expressed per
1000 inhabitants
Crude marriage rate (marriages per 1000 population)
Crude marriage rate in 2020
Differences between countries: differences in social policies
,TOTAL FIRST MARRIAGE RATE
Definition
The probability of first marriage for a person if he or she were to pass through his/her lifetime conforming to
the age-specific first marriage rates of a given year. The rate refers to a synthetic male or female cohort. It is
computed by the summation of age- specific first marriage rates (generally up to age 49) observed in a given
year. The indicator can exceed 1.00 in years of strong progression of the number of marriages, although it is
excluded that a person can contract more than one first marriage (Council of Europe, 2004).
age
time
2024
Period female total first marriage rate (period TFFMR)
MEAN AGE AT FEMALE FIRST MARRIAGE
Definition
The fertility or first marriage tables for a given observation year show the different age-specific rates. The total
rate summarises these age-specific rates by addition. The mean age in the table for year n is the weighted mean
of the different ages, the weighting factor at age i being the rate fi at that age. The equation for mean age is
therefore:
, Mean age at female first marriage
Mean age of women at first marriage (MAFM, 2017)
CHANGING NUPTIALITY PATTERNS: A FIRST GLANCE
- Crude marriage rates declined in all regions of Europe between 1960 and 2020. The decline started in
Northern Europe, followed by Western, Southern and finally Central and Eastern Europe.
- Decline of marriage is associated with postponement of (first) marriage to olde rages. In case of
postponement, the number of marriages observed in a given year is typically lower (deflated) than
would be the case in absence of postponement.
- The number of marriages observed in a given year will also depend on the age structure of the
population as first marriage (involving younger individuals) are more prevalent than second and third
marriages (involving older individuals).
- A more detailed analysis is needed to understand change in patterns of union formation (including
unmarried cohabitation) and union dissolution net of population structure, clearly distinguishing
between shifts in timing of events over the life course of individuals (tempo component) and shifts in
the number of individuals ultimately experiencing these events (quantum component).
