What is the invisible primary and how important is it
Point 1 – What is the Invisible Primary:
The invisible primary is the first stage of the presidential campaign. It is in the year preceding the
election and it can be defined as the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for
the presidency and the first contests of the primary season.
A candidate will hope to be mentioned as a possible serious candidate in such newspapers as the
Washington post and the New York Times.
The declaration of candidacy is also part of the invisible primary; Ted Cruz was the first to announce
his candidacy for this term’s republican primaries.
The invisible primary is becoming more important because of ‘front loading’ where states try to
bring their primaries earlier, as it thus makes it easier to choose the nominee earlier.
Flair - Florida has recently shifted their republican primaries towards being ‘winner takes all’ and
thus increasing its importance as a state, due to having 92 delegates, so if Florida was to front load,
the significance of the invisible primary would be exacerbated even further.
Point 2 – Importance - Exposure
IP = significant as it gives candidates who are lesser-known a platform to impress through various
forms of media → TV debates, announcements, interviews, quick-fire questions
EX: Some exposure can be negative + take a toll on candidates - EX: Jeb Bush + Marco Rubio,
Republican favourites, both couldn’t answer media questions about the Iraq War = criticism
This can also help drive their campaign and help them raise donations
Invisible primaries are useful as they can point out front-runners + single out those who are
performing worse - wasting less money on their campaign
The Iowa Straw Poll is an informal vote held in the Iowa caucuses + candidates have to pay $35,000
in order to enter, cutting out many candidates who they don’t think are significant
EX: 11 Republican candidates spoke to Republican activists at the Lincoln Day Dinner this month in
order to gain support of the 1st voting state → Fiorina, who is polling low, was said to have
delivered the most exciting speech of the night, helping her polling in Iowa + gaining her support.
Flair: The Straw Poll may not be as significant as thought, Jeb Bush pulled out due to its
insignificance + his reluctance to pay the fee - also, Michelle Bachmann won the Straw Poll but came
6th in the caucus
Point 3 – Importance - Raising donations
It allows candidates to gain large enough backing to be taken seriously.
EX: in 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her presidential bid during the invisible primary season claiming
that she simply could not raise enough money.
EX: During the invisible primary period for the 2012 republican nomination race Romney raised $56
million compared to his closest rival, Ron Paul, who did not even raise half the amount. By the end
of 2011, Obama raised $125 million.
They have time to go to different states, starting up their campaigns in different states, and present
themselves to different groups that donate money. Hillary Clinton is going to New Hampshire on
June 13 2015 to formally kick off her candidacy.
EX: By the time the Republican Iowa caucuses were held in 2012 the eight Republican nomination
candidates had made a total of 771 visits to the state with eventual winner, Santorum, topping the
number of visits with 266.
Link/Flair - Exposure is extremely significant as it allows candidates to gain donation → Jeb Bush’s
extreme exposure has allowed him to take the fall for the Iowa straw poll as he already has a
significant amount of money in Super-PACs ALSO important for smaller candidates
Point 1 – What is the Invisible Primary:
The invisible primary is the first stage of the presidential campaign. It is in the year preceding the
election and it can be defined as the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for
the presidency and the first contests of the primary season.
A candidate will hope to be mentioned as a possible serious candidate in such newspapers as the
Washington post and the New York Times.
The declaration of candidacy is also part of the invisible primary; Ted Cruz was the first to announce
his candidacy for this term’s republican primaries.
The invisible primary is becoming more important because of ‘front loading’ where states try to
bring their primaries earlier, as it thus makes it easier to choose the nominee earlier.
Flair - Florida has recently shifted their republican primaries towards being ‘winner takes all’ and
thus increasing its importance as a state, due to having 92 delegates, so if Florida was to front load,
the significance of the invisible primary would be exacerbated even further.
Point 2 – Importance - Exposure
IP = significant as it gives candidates who are lesser-known a platform to impress through various
forms of media → TV debates, announcements, interviews, quick-fire questions
EX: Some exposure can be negative + take a toll on candidates - EX: Jeb Bush + Marco Rubio,
Republican favourites, both couldn’t answer media questions about the Iraq War = criticism
This can also help drive their campaign and help them raise donations
Invisible primaries are useful as they can point out front-runners + single out those who are
performing worse - wasting less money on their campaign
The Iowa Straw Poll is an informal vote held in the Iowa caucuses + candidates have to pay $35,000
in order to enter, cutting out many candidates who they don’t think are significant
EX: 11 Republican candidates spoke to Republican activists at the Lincoln Day Dinner this month in
order to gain support of the 1st voting state → Fiorina, who is polling low, was said to have
delivered the most exciting speech of the night, helping her polling in Iowa + gaining her support.
Flair: The Straw Poll may not be as significant as thought, Jeb Bush pulled out due to its
insignificance + his reluctance to pay the fee - also, Michelle Bachmann won the Straw Poll but came
6th in the caucus
Point 3 – Importance - Raising donations
It allows candidates to gain large enough backing to be taken seriously.
EX: in 1999 Elizabeth Dole ended her presidential bid during the invisible primary season claiming
that she simply could not raise enough money.
EX: During the invisible primary period for the 2012 republican nomination race Romney raised $56
million compared to his closest rival, Ron Paul, who did not even raise half the amount. By the end
of 2011, Obama raised $125 million.
They have time to go to different states, starting up their campaigns in different states, and present
themselves to different groups that donate money. Hillary Clinton is going to New Hampshire on
June 13 2015 to formally kick off her candidacy.
EX: By the time the Republican Iowa caucuses were held in 2012 the eight Republican nomination
candidates had made a total of 771 visits to the state with eventual winner, Santorum, topping the
number of visits with 266.
Link/Flair - Exposure is extremely significant as it allows candidates to gain donation → Jeb Bush’s
extreme exposure has allowed him to take the fall for the Iowa straw poll as he already has a
significant amount of money in Super-PACs ALSO important for smaller candidates
