MGSC 395 Exam 3 Questions With Correct Answers

forecast - Answer a prediction of future events used for planning purposes time series - Answer the repeated observations of demand for a service or product in their order of occurrence time series pattern: horizontal - Answer nearly flat over time time series pattern: trend - Answer consistently rising or falling time series pattern: seasonal - Answer varies in a repeatable pattern over seasons time series pattern: cyclical - Answer less predictable than seasonal, longer cycle than seasonal demand, caused by the business cycle (economy) and the product life cycle complementary products - Answer finding products and services that can be produced with the existing equipment or resources promotional pricing - Answer push sales with favorable pricing prescheduled appointments - Answer fill available time with work reservations - Answer used to fill the available resources - gives information in advance of the event to help determine if other actions are needed to increase demand revenue management - Answer varying price at the right time for different customer segments to maximize revenue from existing capacity backlogs - Answer accumulation of customer order promised for delivery at some future date (not late) backorders - Answer a customer order that can't be filled when promised stockout - Answer a customer order that is lost because it can't be fulfilled forecast error - Answer measures error for a period of time, basis for other forecast error measures cumulative sum of forecast errors (bias) - Answer sum or errors through that period, "bias error" when a consistent mistake is seen, variance will grow and represent a systematic deficiency in the forecast process average forecast error - Answer known as "mean bias". shows, on average, how far off the forecast is from actual demand mean squared error and standard deviation - Answer measures dispersion of error, large errors get more weight mean absolute deviation - Answer widely used measure, its the mean of the absolute value of the error over a series of time periods mean absolute percent error - Answer relates forecast error to level of demand, converts mean absolute deviation to a percentage