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Samenvatting van de theorie lessen Onderzoeksmethode 3

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Samenvatting van de theorielessen binnen het vak Onderzoeksmethode 3. De theorie is slechts een deel van het vak, andere deel zijn de oefeningen binnen STATA.

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August 4, 2023
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Contents
1 Introductie...............................................................................................................................................................................7
1.1 Wat is econometrie?.........................................................................................................................................................7
1.2 Valse correlaties................................................................................................................................................................8
1.3 Weggelaten variabelen (ommited variables)....................................................................................................................8
1.4 Extreme observatie...........................................................................................................................................................9
1.4.1 Schatting van de relatie tussen aantal ziekenhuisdagen en totale kosten van een ziekenhuis..................................9
1.4.2 Schatting van een consumptie functie.......................................................................................................................9
1.5 Regressie lijn................................................................................................................................................................... 10
1.6 Schatting van een consumptie functie............................................................................................................................10
1.7 Terminologie en notatie: variabelen en parameters.......................................................................................................11
1.8 Meetniveau’s van variabelen RINO.................................................................................................................................12
2 Hoe kan men de onbekende waarde van de parameters achterhalen?.................................................................................13
2.1 OLS = ordinary least squares of GKK → Gewone kleinste kwadraten.............................................................................13
2.2 Afleiden van OLS schattingen!!!......................................................................................................................................14
2.3 Enkele noodzakelijke statistische concepten..................................................................................................................14
3 Eigenschappen en aannames.................................................................................................................................................15
3.1 Algemene eigenschappen van OLS-schatters..................................................................................................................15
3.2 Basisassumpties die ten grondslag liggen aan de OLS-methode.....................................................................................16
3.2.1 De klassieke veronderstellingen → Stu, Hfdst. 4......................................................................................................16
3.3 Error term / stortingsterm / fout term............................................................................................................................16
3.4 Normaliteitsveronderstelling voor ui: ui ~ N(0, σ²)..........................................................................................................16
4 Nauwkeurigheid van de ramingen.........................................................................................................................................17
4.1 Voorbeeldregressie vs. populatie....................................................................................................................................17
4.2 Sampling verdeling van 𝛽...............................................................................................................................................18
4.4 OLS-estimators = BLUE (Gauss-Markov)..........................................................................................................................18
4.5 Onbevooroordeeld (onvertekend): gemiddeld = werkelijke waarde..............................................................................19
4.5.1 Efficiënt: minimale afwijking....................................................................................................................................19
4.6 Gauss-Markov stelling: OLS = BLUE (Best linear unbiased estimator).............................................................................19
5 Model diagnostics.................................................................................................................................................................. 19
5.1 Hebben we een goede inschatting?................................................................................................................................19
5.2 Enkele noodzakelijke statistische concepten .................................................................................................................19
5.3 Bepalingscoëfficiënt: R²!!!...............................................................................................................................................20
6.2 Mozarella kaas consumptie.............................................................................................................................................21
1 Afleiden van OLS schattingen.................................................................................................................................................22
1.1 Nauwkeurigheid van OLS-schattingen.............................................................................................................................22
1.2 Meervoudige regressie...................................................................................................................................................22
1.3 Algemene eigenschappen van OLS-schattingen..............................................................................................................23
1.4 Nauwkeurigheid van de OLS schattingen........................................................................................................................23

, 1.5 Modellen vergelijken......................................................................................................................................................24
1.6 Interpretatie van de coëfficiënten..................................................................................................................................25
2 Voorbeelden.......................................................................................................................................................................... 25
2.1 Consumptie van 25 huishouden......................................................................................................................................25
3 Stata....................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
3.1 Importeren van Excel naar Stata.....................................................................................................................................27
3.2 Noodzakelijk gegevensonderzoek voor het schatten......................................................................................................27
3.3 Grafieken........................................................................................................................................................................ 27
3.3.1 Histogrammen.........................................................................................................................................................27
3.3.2 Boxplots................................................................................................................................................................... 28
3.3.3 Scatterplot matrix....................................................................................................................................................28
3.4 Schatting en resultaten...................................................................................................................................................28
1 Kwalitatieve of "dummy"-variabelen (0-1) = speciaal geval van categorische variabelen.....................................................28
2 Dummies op intercept (snijpunt met y-as): 0 or 1.................................................................................................................29
2.1 Kwalitatieve exogene variabelen....................................................................................................................................29
2.2 Verschillen met man/vrouw in auto aankopen...............................................................................................................31
2.2.1 Geschatte resultaten................................................................................................................................................31
2.3 Voorzichtigheid bij het gebruik van dummy's.................................................................................................................31
3 Dummies op intercept en/of helling(en)................................................................................................................................32
3.1 Intercept dummy............................................................................................................................................................32
3.2 Interactie-effect (moderator effect)................................................................................................................................33
3.2.1 Voorbeeld van interactie-effect (=modulatoreffect): interactie van dummy en continue variabele........................33
3.3 Interactie-effect: interactie van 2 dummy's....................................................................................................................33
3.4 Gebruik van dummy's, categorische variabelen en interacties in Stata..........................................................................34
3.5 Omgaan met categorische variabelen in Stata................................................................................................................35
3.6 Andere specifieke toepassingen van dummy-variabelen (wordt later in afzonderlijke hoofdstukken behandeld).........36
1 Interpretaties van coëfficiënten.............................................................................................................................................36
1.1 Voorbeeld: impact van de eenheden..............................................................................................................................37
1.2 Bruto Particuliere Binnenlandse Investeringen (GPDI) en Bruto binnenlands product (BBP).........................................38
2 Gestandaardiseerde coëfficiënten.........................................................................................................................................38
2.1 Voorbeeld: kindersterftes...............................................................................................................................................39
3 Logaritmische transformaties................................................................................................................................................39
3.1 Omzetten van niet-lineaire specificaties in lineaire........................................................................................................39
3.2 Log-log, log-lin and lin-log models: interpretaties van de coëfficiënten.........................................................................40
3.3 Log-lin and lin-log modellen............................................................................................................................................41
3.3.1 Log-lin....................................................................................................................................................................... 41
3.4 Grafisch........................................................................................................................................................................... 41
3.4.1 Double-log form (log-log).........................................................................................................................................41
3.4.2 Log-lin en lin-log model............................................................................................................................................42
3.4.3 Kwadratisch..............................................................................................................................................................42
3.5 De interpretatie van de wijzigingen in X → Samenvattende tabel..................................................................................42

, 3.7 Keuze van de functionele vorm.......................................................................................................................................43
1 Basisaannames die ten grondslag liggen aan de LS-methode, de klassieke veronderstelling. → Stu, Ch. 4...........................44
2 Normaliteit van de residuen..................................................................................................................................................44
2.1 Normaliteitsveronderstelling voor : ~ N(0, σ²)................................................................................................................44
2.2 Normaliteitstest van de residuen....................................................................................................................................45
2.3 Grafische controle van residuen.....................................................................................................................................45
2.4 Normaliteitstest van residuen: visuele test via kerneldichtheid.....................................................................................46
2.5 Normaliteitstest van de residuen: statistische tests.......................................................................................................46
3 Hypothese testen................................................................................................................................................................... 47
3.1 Wat is een (statistische) hypothesetest?........................................................................................................................47
3.2 Hypothese testen: intuïtie...............................................................................................................................................48
3.3 Voorbeelden van type I en type 2 fouten........................................................................................................................48
3.4 Uitkomsten van hypothese testen (Bijv. H0=niet zwanger of H0=geen kanker of H0=geen terrorist)............................49
3.5 Typische hypothesetestprocedure in de econometrie....................................................................................................49
3.6 T-test............................................................................................................................................................................... 50
3.6.1 Het bepalen van kritische waarden voor t, d.w.z. -tc en +tc zodanig dat Pr(-tc<t< tc)=1-α......................................50
3.7.2 Intervalschatting: voorbeeld en interpretatie..........................................................................................................51
3.7.3 Hypothesis testing....................................................................................................................................................51
3.8 Voorbeelden................................................................................................................................................................... 52
3.8.1 Coëfficiënt significant verschillend van 0? Reclame-uitgaven (advertising expenses: AE).......................................52
3.9 Including or excluding a variable?...................................................................................................................................52
3.10 Betekenis (= p-waarde) in verband met coëfficiënten..................................................................................................53
3.11 Voorbeeld: Verbruik van 25 huishoudens.....................................................................................................................54
90% interval schatters...........................................................................................................................................................54
1 Op meerdere coëfficiënten....................................................................................................................................................55
1.1 Het testen van lineaire beperkingen van parameters.....................................................................................................55
2 Op een enkele coëfficiënt......................................................................................................................................................55
2.1 Testhypothesen over een individuele partiële regressiecoëfficiënt (Stu Ch. 5)..............................................................55
2.1.1 Lincom command in Stata (t-test)............................................................................................................................56
2.2 Testhypothesen over een individuele partiële regressiecoëfficiënt (Stu Ch. 5)..............................................................56
3 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: twee coëfficiënten gelijk aan elkaar..........................................................................................57
3.1 Testen dat twee coëfficiënten gelijk zijn aan elkaar........................................................................................................57
4 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: testen van lineaire beperkingen................................................................................................58
4.1 Testen dat regressiecoëfficiënten aan bepaalde lineaire beperkingen voldoen.............................................................58
5 Op basis van meervoudige coëfficiënten, gebaseerd op SSR: algemene beginselen.............................................................58
5.1 Beperkingen voor het testen van meerdere coëfficiënten..............................................................................................59
5.2 Het testen van beperkingen op meerdere coëfficiënten in lineaire modellen: F-test (Stukje Ch. 5)...............................59
6 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: groep coëfficiënten die tegelijkertijd gelijk zijn aan nul............................................................60
6.1 Voorbeeld: gezamenlijke F-test: 2 of meer coëfficiënten tegelijkertijd gelijk aan 0........................................................60
6.2 Stata command voor F-test: test.....................................................................................................................................61
6.3 Het testen van de algemene betekenis van het geschatte meervoudige regressiemodel (Hfdst. 5 in Stu) Data:

, Kindersterfte.xlsx.................................................................................................................................................................. 62
6.4 Relatie tussen R-kwadraat en F.......................................................................................................................................64
7 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: testen van lineaire beperkingen................................................................................................64
7.1 Testen dat regressiecoëfficiënten aan bepaalde lineaire beperkingen voldoen.............................................................64
7.2 Voorbeeld: Constante, toenemende of afnemende opbrengsten van de schaalproductiefunctie.xls............................64
8.1 Het testen van de structurele of parameterstabiliteit van het regressiemodel: De Chow-test  Tijdreeksen ..................66
8.2 Structurele veranderingen: Chow-test............................................................................................................................66
8.3 Voorbeeld: sparen en inkomen (1970-1995)..................................................................................................................66
9 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: testen van de stabiliteit van de parameters → Gebruik van onderscheppings- en
hellingsdummy's....................................................................................................................................................................... 67
9.1 Structurele veranderingen: dummy's (1) als alternatief voor de Chow-test en (2) als methode om de Chow-test uit te
voeren................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
9.2 Voorbeeld: sparen en inkomen (1970-1995)..................................................................................................................68
9.3 Schatting met dummy-variabele: 2 in 1..........................................................................................................................68
9.4 Chowtest via onderscheppings- en hellingsdummy's (F-test).........................................................................................69
10 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: Ramsey's RESET-test...............................................................................................................69
10.1 Het kiezen van een geschikte specificatie.....................................................................................................................69
10.2 Ramsey RESET-test........................................................................................................................................................70
11 Op meerdere coëfficiënten: andere testprocedures............................................................................................................71
11.1 Beperkingen voor het testen van meerdere coëfficiënten in niet-lineaire modellen met grote monsters...................71
1 Het opsporen van extreme waarnemingen...........................................................................................................................72
1.1 Ex ante: scatter plot, boxplot, histogram, Data: extreme observation.xlsx.....................................................................72
1.2 Ex post: plots................................................................................................................................................................... 72
1.3 Ex post: DfBeta(s)............................................................................................................................................................74
1.3.1 DfBeta(s).................................................................................................................................................................. 74
1.3.2 Gestandaardiseerde DfBeta.....................................................................................................................................74
1.4 Studentized residuals......................................................................................................................................................75
1.5 Extreme observation?.....................................................................................................................................................76
1.6 Hoe ga je om met extreme waarnemingen?...................................................................................................................77
1.7 Dummies om verantwoording af te leggen voor extreme waarnemingen......................................................................77
2 Perfecte multicollineariteit....................................................................................................................................................78
3 Niet-perfecte multicollineariteit............................................................................................................................................80
4 Variantie-inflatoire factor (VIF)..............................................................................................................................................82
5 Gevolgen en detectie van multicollineariteit.........................................................................................................................83
5.1 Illustratie van multicollineariteit.....................................................................................................................................84
5.2 Remediërende maatregelen...........................................................................................................................................85
1 Belangrijkste oorzaken van vertekening in OLS.....................................................................................................................87
1.1 Invloedrijke extreme waarneming..................................................................................................................................87
1.2 Verkeerde functionele vorm...........................................................................................................................................88
1.3 Weggelaten variabele vertekening = underfitting...........................................................................................................88
1.4 Opname van een irrelevante variabele (overfitting).......................................................................................................89

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