All Paper 2 Case studies
Population and the Environment
Japan
Background and National Context
Japan is an island nation in East Asia made up of 6,852 islands, with a current population of
approximately 123 million people (2026). However, this represents a significant decline from
its peak population of 128.1 million in 2008, making Japan one of the clearest examples
globally of a highly developed country experiencing long-term demographic contraction.
Despite remaining one of the world’s largest advanced economies, with a GDP per capita of
approximately $35,000, Japan faces severe challenges linked to population decline, ageing,
labour shortages, and environmental pressure.
One of the main causes of this demographic crisis is Japan’s exceptionally low fertility rate,
which has fallen to approximately 1.15 children per woman, far below the replacement level
of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. At the same time, Japan has one of the highest
life expectancies in the world at 85.1 years, alongside an extremely low infant mortality rate
of just 1.8 deaths per 1,000 live births, reflecting its advanced healthcare system and high
levels of development.
Japan’s population structure is becoming increasingly imbalanced. Around 29.5% of the
population is now aged 65 or over, while only 11.7% are under the age of 15, creating one of
the world’s highest dependency ratios. The country’s median age is 49.8 years, compared
with a global average of around 31, making Japan the oldest major society on Earth.
Demographic Decline and Population Change
Japan is widely considered to be in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model,
characterised by extremely low birth rates, low death rates, and negative natural population
growth. Deaths now significantly exceed births each year, and in 2024 the number of births
fell below 700,000 for the first time in modern history, highlighting the scale of the
demographic emergency.
Population projections suggest that Japan’s population could fall to approximately 104
million by 2050, and further decline to around 87 million by 2070, representing one of the
fastest long-term population declines in the developed world.
This decline is geographically uneven. While major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka continue
to attract younger workers and remain economically productive, many rural areas are
experiencing acute depopulation. In Akita Prefecture, for example, more than 38% of
residents are aged over 65, and many communities are shrinking so rapidly that schools,
hospitals, and transport services are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.
, Physical Geography and Resource Constraints
Japan’s physical environment strongly influences both population distribution and resource
availability. Approximately 73% of Japan’s land area is mountainous, leaving only
around 12% suitable for agriculture or large-scale settlement. This limited habitable land has
concentrated population growth into narrow coastal plains and urban corridors.
The Tokyo metropolitan area alone contains approximately 37 million people, making it the
largest urban agglomeration in the world, while the Osaka–Kobe–Kyoto urban region
supports around 19 million people. Although Japan’s national population density is
approximately 330 people per square kilometre, central Tokyo reaches densities of over 6,300
people per square kilometre, creating significant pressure on housing, transport, and energy
systems.
Japan also faces major food security challenges due to limited agricultural land. The country
imports around 60% of its food calories, resulting in a 63% calorie self-sufficiency deficit,
making it highly dependent on global trade. Climate change threatens to worsen this
vulnerability, as rising temperatures, increased drought risk, and changing rainfall patterns
may reduce rice yields and agricultural productivity.
Japan is also highly exposed to natural hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons,
and volcanic eruptions, all of which place additional pressure on settlement planning and
infrastructure resilience.
Health, Ageing and Well-being
Japan is internationally recognised for its exceptional health outcomes. Universal healthcare
access, healthy diets, and active lifestyles contribute to very low levels of obesity, with an
obesity rate of only 4.5%, compared with approximately 28% in the UK. Japan also records
the lowest coronary heart disease mortality rate among G7 countries, demonstrating the
success of preventative healthcare and public health interventions.
However, population ageing is creating significant new health challenges. Diseases
associated with old age, including dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and osteoporosis, are
becoming increasingly common. It is estimated that around 7 million Japanese people could
be living with dementia by 2030, placing substantial strain on healthcare services and family
carers.
A particularly striking social issue is kodokushi, meaning “lonely death,” where elderly
individuals die alone and remain undiscovered for extended periods. Around 68,000 people
each year are estimated to die in this way, reflecting increasing social isolation and the
weakening of traditional multigenerational family structures.
Climate change is also emerging as a major health threat. During the summer of 2023, Japan
recorded over 91,000 heatstroke hospitalisations, alongside more than 1,600 heat-related
deaths, many of them among vulnerable elderly residents. Rising temperatures may also
Population and the Environment
Japan
Background and National Context
Japan is an island nation in East Asia made up of 6,852 islands, with a current population of
approximately 123 million people (2026). However, this represents a significant decline from
its peak population of 128.1 million in 2008, making Japan one of the clearest examples
globally of a highly developed country experiencing long-term demographic contraction.
Despite remaining one of the world’s largest advanced economies, with a GDP per capita of
approximately $35,000, Japan faces severe challenges linked to population decline, ageing,
labour shortages, and environmental pressure.
One of the main causes of this demographic crisis is Japan’s exceptionally low fertility rate,
which has fallen to approximately 1.15 children per woman, far below the replacement level
of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. At the same time, Japan has one of the highest
life expectancies in the world at 85.1 years, alongside an extremely low infant mortality rate
of just 1.8 deaths per 1,000 live births, reflecting its advanced healthcare system and high
levels of development.
Japan’s population structure is becoming increasingly imbalanced. Around 29.5% of the
population is now aged 65 or over, while only 11.7% are under the age of 15, creating one of
the world’s highest dependency ratios. The country’s median age is 49.8 years, compared
with a global average of around 31, making Japan the oldest major society on Earth.
Demographic Decline and Population Change
Japan is widely considered to be in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model,
characterised by extremely low birth rates, low death rates, and negative natural population
growth. Deaths now significantly exceed births each year, and in 2024 the number of births
fell below 700,000 for the first time in modern history, highlighting the scale of the
demographic emergency.
Population projections suggest that Japan’s population could fall to approximately 104
million by 2050, and further decline to around 87 million by 2070, representing one of the
fastest long-term population declines in the developed world.
This decline is geographically uneven. While major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka continue
to attract younger workers and remain economically productive, many rural areas are
experiencing acute depopulation. In Akita Prefecture, for example, more than 38% of
residents are aged over 65, and many communities are shrinking so rapidly that schools,
hospitals, and transport services are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.
, Physical Geography and Resource Constraints
Japan’s physical environment strongly influences both population distribution and resource
availability. Approximately 73% of Japan’s land area is mountainous, leaving only
around 12% suitable for agriculture or large-scale settlement. This limited habitable land has
concentrated population growth into narrow coastal plains and urban corridors.
The Tokyo metropolitan area alone contains approximately 37 million people, making it the
largest urban agglomeration in the world, while the Osaka–Kobe–Kyoto urban region
supports around 19 million people. Although Japan’s national population density is
approximately 330 people per square kilometre, central Tokyo reaches densities of over 6,300
people per square kilometre, creating significant pressure on housing, transport, and energy
systems.
Japan also faces major food security challenges due to limited agricultural land. The country
imports around 60% of its food calories, resulting in a 63% calorie self-sufficiency deficit,
making it highly dependent on global trade. Climate change threatens to worsen this
vulnerability, as rising temperatures, increased drought risk, and changing rainfall patterns
may reduce rice yields and agricultural productivity.
Japan is also highly exposed to natural hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons,
and volcanic eruptions, all of which place additional pressure on settlement planning and
infrastructure resilience.
Health, Ageing and Well-being
Japan is internationally recognised for its exceptional health outcomes. Universal healthcare
access, healthy diets, and active lifestyles contribute to very low levels of obesity, with an
obesity rate of only 4.5%, compared with approximately 28% in the UK. Japan also records
the lowest coronary heart disease mortality rate among G7 countries, demonstrating the
success of preventative healthcare and public health interventions.
However, population ageing is creating significant new health challenges. Diseases
associated with old age, including dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and osteoporosis, are
becoming increasingly common. It is estimated that around 7 million Japanese people could
be living with dementia by 2030, placing substantial strain on healthcare services and family
carers.
A particularly striking social issue is kodokushi, meaning “lonely death,” where elderly
individuals die alone and remain undiscovered for extended periods. Around 68,000 people
each year are estimated to die in this way, reflecting increasing social isolation and the
weakening of traditional multigenerational family structures.
Climate change is also emerging as a major health threat. During the summer of 2023, Japan
recorded over 91,000 heatstroke hospitalisations, alongside more than 1,600 heat-related
deaths, many of them among vulnerable elderly residents. Rising temperatures may also
