MGSC 395 EXAM 3 VERIFIED STUDY GUIDE
forecast - Answers - a prediction of future events used for planning purposes
time series - Answers - the repeated observations of demand for a service or product in
their order of occurrence
time series pattern: horizontal - Answers - nearly flat over time
time series pattern: trend - Answers - consistently rising or falling
time series pattern: seasonal - Answers - varies in a repeatable pattern over seasons
time series pattern: cyclical - Answers - less predictable than seasonal, longer cycle
than seasonal demand, caused by the business cycle (economy) and the product life
cycle
complementary products - Answers - finding products and services that can be
produced with the existing equipment or resources
promotional pricing - Answers - push sales with favorable pricing
prescheduled appointments - Answers - fill available time with work
reservations - Answers - used to fill the available resources - gives information in
advance of the event to help determine if other actions are needed to increase demand
revenue management - Answers - varying price at the right time for different customer
segments to maximize revenue from existing capacity
backlogs - Answers - accumulation of customer order promised for delivery at some
future date (not late)
backorders - Answers - a customer order that can't be filled when promised
stockout - Answers - a customer order that is lost because it can't be fulfilled
forecast error - Answers - measures error for a period of time, basis for other forecast
error measures
cumulative sum of forecast errors (bias) - Answers - sum or errors through that period,
"bias error" when a consistent mistake is seen, variance will grow and represent a
systematic deficiency in the forecast process
, average forecast error - Answers - known as "mean bias". shows, on average, how far
off the forecast is from actual demand
mean squared error and standard deviation - Answers - measures dispersion of error,
large errors get more weight
mean absolute deviation - Answers - widely used measure, its the mean of the absolute
value of the error over a series of time periods
mean absolute percent error - Answers - relates forecast error to level of demand,
converts mean absolute deviation to a percentage
judgement methods - Answers - ______ forecasts used contextual knowledge through
experience
- salesforce experience
- executive opinion
- market research
- Delphi Method: gaining consensus from a group of experts while being anonymous
casual method; a dependent variable is related to one or more independent variables by
a linear equation, straight line, independent variables are assumed to "cause" the
results observed in the past - Answers - Linear Regression
sample correlation coefficient - Answers - "r", measures the direction of the relationship
between the independent and dependent variable, range from -1 to 1
sample coefficient of determination - Answers - "r^2", measures the amount of variation
in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression line, range
from 0 to 1
standard error of the estimate - Answers - "Syx", measures how closely the data on the
dependent variable cluster around the regression line
naïve forecast - Answers - the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the
current period
simple moving average - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, choose demand for n
periods to use to include in average
weighted moving average - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, puts importance
on prior periods based on some logic you determine, each weight can be different but
the sum must = 1
exponential smoothing - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, weighted moving
average that calculates the average of a time series; recent demands weight more that
earlier ones
forecast - Answers - a prediction of future events used for planning purposes
time series - Answers - the repeated observations of demand for a service or product in
their order of occurrence
time series pattern: horizontal - Answers - nearly flat over time
time series pattern: trend - Answers - consistently rising or falling
time series pattern: seasonal - Answers - varies in a repeatable pattern over seasons
time series pattern: cyclical - Answers - less predictable than seasonal, longer cycle
than seasonal demand, caused by the business cycle (economy) and the product life
cycle
complementary products - Answers - finding products and services that can be
produced with the existing equipment or resources
promotional pricing - Answers - push sales with favorable pricing
prescheduled appointments - Answers - fill available time with work
reservations - Answers - used to fill the available resources - gives information in
advance of the event to help determine if other actions are needed to increase demand
revenue management - Answers - varying price at the right time for different customer
segments to maximize revenue from existing capacity
backlogs - Answers - accumulation of customer order promised for delivery at some
future date (not late)
backorders - Answers - a customer order that can't be filled when promised
stockout - Answers - a customer order that is lost because it can't be fulfilled
forecast error - Answers - measures error for a period of time, basis for other forecast
error measures
cumulative sum of forecast errors (bias) - Answers - sum or errors through that period,
"bias error" when a consistent mistake is seen, variance will grow and represent a
systematic deficiency in the forecast process
, average forecast error - Answers - known as "mean bias". shows, on average, how far
off the forecast is from actual demand
mean squared error and standard deviation - Answers - measures dispersion of error,
large errors get more weight
mean absolute deviation - Answers - widely used measure, its the mean of the absolute
value of the error over a series of time periods
mean absolute percent error - Answers - relates forecast error to level of demand,
converts mean absolute deviation to a percentage
judgement methods - Answers - ______ forecasts used contextual knowledge through
experience
- salesforce experience
- executive opinion
- market research
- Delphi Method: gaining consensus from a group of experts while being anonymous
casual method; a dependent variable is related to one or more independent variables by
a linear equation, straight line, independent variables are assumed to "cause" the
results observed in the past - Answers - Linear Regression
sample correlation coefficient - Answers - "r", measures the direction of the relationship
between the independent and dependent variable, range from -1 to 1
sample coefficient of determination - Answers - "r^2", measures the amount of variation
in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression line, range
from 0 to 1
standard error of the estimate - Answers - "Syx", measures how closely the data on the
dependent variable cluster around the regression line
naïve forecast - Answers - the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the
current period
simple moving average - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, choose demand for n
periods to use to include in average
weighted moving average - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, puts importance
on prior periods based on some logic you determine, each weight can be different but
the sum must = 1
exponential smoothing - Answers - horizontal pattern, time series, weighted moving
average that calculates the average of a time series; recent demands weight more that
earlier ones
