OPMA 3306 FORECASTING EXAM
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
What are the five basic patterns of most demand time series? - Correct Answers -#1
Horizontal - fluctuation of data around a constant mean
#2 Trend - systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time
#3 Seasonal - repeatable pattern of increases or decreases in demand, depending on
the time of day, week, month, or season
#4 Cyclical - less predictable gradual increases or decreases in demand over longer
periods of time (years or decades)
#5 Random - unforecastable variation in demand
What are the three types of forecasting techniques? - Correct Answers -#1 judgment
method
#2 causal method
#3 time-series analysis
judgment methods - Correct Answers -a forecasting method that translates the opinions
of managers, expert opinions, consumer surveys, and salesforce estimates into
quantitative estimates
causal methods - Correct Answers -a quantitative forecasting method that uses
historical data on independent variables, such as promotional campaigns, economic
conditions, and competitors' actions, to predict
time-series analysis - Correct Answers -a statistical approach that relies heavily on
historical demand data to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and
seasonal patterns
history files - Correct Answers -history data that make forecasting from quantitative
methods possible
contextual knowledge - Correct Answers -knowledge that practitioners gain through
experience, such as cause-and-effect relationships, environmental cues, and
organizational information that may have an effect on the variable being forecast
executive opinion - Correct Answers -a forecasting method in which the opinions,
experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to
arrive at a single forecast
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
What are the five basic patterns of most demand time series? - Correct Answers -#1
Horizontal - fluctuation of data around a constant mean
#2 Trend - systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time
#3 Seasonal - repeatable pattern of increases or decreases in demand, depending on
the time of day, week, month, or season
#4 Cyclical - less predictable gradual increases or decreases in demand over longer
periods of time (years or decades)
#5 Random - unforecastable variation in demand
What are the three types of forecasting techniques? - Correct Answers -#1 judgment
method
#2 causal method
#3 time-series analysis
judgment methods - Correct Answers -a forecasting method that translates the opinions
of managers, expert opinions, consumer surveys, and salesforce estimates into
quantitative estimates
causal methods - Correct Answers -a quantitative forecasting method that uses
historical data on independent variables, such as promotional campaigns, economic
conditions, and competitors' actions, to predict
time-series analysis - Correct Answers -a statistical approach that relies heavily on
historical demand data to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and
seasonal patterns
history files - Correct Answers -history data that make forecasting from quantitative
methods possible
contextual knowledge - Correct Answers -knowledge that practitioners gain through
experience, such as cause-and-effect relationships, environmental cues, and
organizational information that may have an effect on the variable being forecast
executive opinion - Correct Answers -a forecasting method in which the opinions,
experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to
arrive at a single forecast
