and CORRECT Answers
Reasoning The process of drawing conclusions that go beyond the given information
Are people logical? No, people make systematic errors in reasoning, not just careless mistakes
Inductive Reasoning Drawing conclusions based on evidence; conclusions are probably true, not
certain
Strength of inductive reasoning Depends on sample size, quality of evidence, and representativeness.
Heuristic A mental shortcut that is quick and efficient but can lead to errors
Availability heuristic judging probability based on how easily examples come to mind.
Availability example People think shark attacks are more common than plan debris deaths because
they are easier to recall
Illusory correlation believing a relationship exists when it does not or is weaker than assumed.
Illusory correlation examples superstitions and stereotypes
representativeness heuristic judging probability based on similarity to a stereotype
representativeness error ignoring base rates and relying on stereotypes
conjunction rule the probability of two events together cannot be greater than one event alone
linda problem people incorrectly think "bannk teller and feminist" is more likely due to
representativeness
base rate the actual proportion of something in a population
base rate neglect ignoring base rate information when making judgments
sample size the number of observations used to make a judgment
law of large numbers larger samples are more representative of the population
sample size error example small hospitals show more extreme outcomes than large hospitals
anchoring and adjustment making an estimate based on an initial value (anchor) and adjusting from it
anchoring example initial prices influence how we perceive later prices
Anchoring in sales High starting prices make discounts seem better.
, Confirmation bias Seeking information that supports your beliefs and ignoring opposing
evidence.
Belief perseverance Continuing to believe something even after it is disproven.
Attitude polarization Opposing sides become more extreme in their beliefs.
Bias blind spot Seeing bias in others but not in yourself.
Disinformation motives Propaganda, passion, politics, provocation, profit, parody.
Types of disinformation False, manipulated, and contextual.
Click restraint Pausing before reacting to emotional content.
Lateral reading Checking other reliable sources to verify information.
Backfire effect When correcting misinformation strengthens a person's belief.
Deductive reasoning Using general rules to reach conclusions that must be true.
Syllogism A logical argument with two premises and a conclusion.
Conditional syllogism A syllogism using an "if-then" statement.
Modus ponens If P then Q; P is true → Q is true (valid).
Modus tollens If P then Q; Q is false → P is false (valid).
Affirming the consequent If P then Q; Q is true → P is true (invalid).
Denying the antecedent If P then Q; P is false → Q is false (invalid).
Validity Whether a conclusion logically follows from premises.
Truth vs validity A conclusion can be logically valid even if the premises are false.
Wason four-card problem A logic test where people struggle to test rules correctly.
Falsification principle To test a rule, you must look for evidence that could disprove it.
Why Wason problem is hard Abstract problems are harder than real-life ones.
Permission schema People reason better when rules involve permissions.
Cheater detection Humans are better at detecting rule violations in social situations.
Categorical syllogism A syllogism involving categories (all, some, none).
Mental model A mental representation of a situation.