Conflict Analysis
Conflict Analysis 1
, Rarely a day passes without the media reporting on violent uprisings, military
coups, suicide bombings, civilian casualties and international interventions all
over the world. In conflict studies, these events are often discussed using a
range of concepts such as ‘civil war’, ‘protracted social conflict’, ’terrorism’ and
‘invasions’. Despite this proliferation of terms, clarifying the complexity of
violent conflict in the 21st century remains a challenging task.
Rather than choosing one of these labels, this introductory course
presents a variety of theoretical approaches that have been developed in the
field of Conflict Studies that aim to understand why and how different actors
resort to violence in internationalised intrastate conflict. Each of these theories
use different analytical categories to study different aspect of the phenomena
under investigation. The course respectively focuses on the non-state, state,
paramilitary, and the international actor.
The main aim of this course is to teach you to become better conflict
analysts and help you to understand, and explain to others, the complex array
of actors, interests, and dynamics involved in the violent conflicts we see
around the world today.
Throughout the course we will address pressing issues in contemporary
warfare like: Why are people prepared to die for the notion of a ‘mother
country’, a nation or a religious group? How are terrorist and insurgency
organisations able to mobilize people towards violent action? Why do states
deploy starvation and sieges as a weapon of war in response? Why do states
outsource violence to paramilitaries? How and why do international actors
forge transnational alliances to intervene in theatres of war?
We will focus on a broad range of contemporary case studies, such as
Colombia, Ukraine, Syria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Collectively, grappling with these different layers of analysis in isolation and in
relation to one another and different case studies will sharpen your conceptual
and analytical capacities greatly. In this course we predominantly focus on
analysing the ‘intra-state’ dynamics of violent conflict, while in block 2 we learn
how to analyse the ‘international’ dimension of 21st century war. This course is
essential for those who plan to participate in upcoming courses of the Conflict
Studies minor.
Conflict Analysis 2
, Hoorcollege 1: Introduction Conflict
Studies & Mapping
Introduction: Conflict Studies & Conflict Mapping
Lecturer: Dr. François Lenfant (Assistant Professor at the Centre for Conflict
Studies)
During this session, an introduction will be given to the field of conflict studies,
the most important assumptions, concepts and definitions herein, and how the
field and the nature of violent conflicts around the world have developed over
time. Hereafter, the fine art of conflict analysis and mapping are introduced.
Conflict analysis entails unravelling the complex dynamics of interactive
processes in order to understand when, how and why groups of people resort to
violence. A conflict map (written or graphic) is a short and concise analysis of a
violent conflict that gives insight into the background, main actors, issues, the
different levels and dynamics of a particular case study.
Introduction
Lectures: Overview of key actors, interests, technologies and dynamics involved in
(internationalized) instrastate conflict.
Workshops: Conflict map assignment & literature
Conflict analysis aims to unravel the complexity of the web of relations and alliances producing
contemporary war and violence and examines the way clusters of conflict cross-infect and
exacerbate each other.
Youtube video: Conflict in the DRC (World of Africa)
link to youtube video: https://youtu.be/W1IYd5vJ6og?si=KpndKvcIUM7hdQII
Which layer is emphasised?
Conflict Analysis 3
, Resources: Western perspective shows primarily the recourses
DRC: just mention M23; nothing on the history, just gvts; no mentioning of 150 plus armed
groups, of state chaos, corruption, predatory state structures
Therefore, the video is NOT convincing enough
Conflict analysis: Two main questions
1. How?
Organisation, finance, recruitment, weaponry…
2. Why?
motivation, fear humilitation, belonging, gain…
Why are resentments against the presence of France in its former African colonies on the increase
recently? (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad)
Less than Russia for example
Easy narratives don’t capture the essence of the problem
How did the Taliban able to ris to power so quickly in the summer of 2021?
They don’t fully grasp the problem. They want to impose a western structure/solution that
does not work there
We need to be creative, theories are not just able to be applied and work in these cases
Field of conflict studies
Conflict studies is a field of studies, not a discipline
Multidisciplinary approach to Conflict analysis
Main question: How and why do groups of people resort to violent conflict?
What is a conflict?
Conflict Analysis 4
, Conflict is:
“Any situation in whicvh two or more social entities or parties (however defined or
structured) perceive that they possess mutually incompatible goals.” (Mitchell, 1981: 17).
“a situation in which actors use conflict behaviour against each other to attain incompatible
goals and/or to express their hostility .”(Bartos & Wehr)
Conflict Triangle - Mitchell
Triangle explanation
1. Situation = Contradition
2. Behaviors = actions
3. Attitudes = ideals and feelings
Violent Conflict
The field of Conflict Studies addresses how different research traditions explain and
understand the occurrence of violence in situations of conflict. Our focus is on violence in
conflict, not on conflict as such.
Violence is not a quantitative degree of conflict but a qualitative form of conflict, with its
own dynamics.
Conflict Analysis 5
, Violence: Why do they resort to violent? Some people resort to violence, other don’t.
"An act of physical hurt deemed legitimate by the performer and illegitmate by (some)
witnesses" (Riches 1986: 8)
"Violent acts are efficient because of their staging of power and legitimacy, probably more so
than due to their physical results"(Schroder & Schmidt 2001: 6)
Making sense of violence
“Violence is a slippery concept – nonlinear, productive, destructive, and
reproductive”(Scheper-Hughes and Bourgois, 2004: 1)
“… defies easy categorization. It can be everything and nothing; illegitimate and legitimate;
visible or invisible; necessary oruseless; senseless and gratuitous or utterly rational or
strategic” (ibid: 2)
Intrastate Conflict definition
Within a territory of a sovereign state
Government and non-state actor ascombatants
Battle deaths exceed a particular threshold(+/- 1000 deaths per year)
Current “new” wars
Do not have precise beginnings or formal ends, geocentric and target centric
Protracted & no clear distinction between war and peace
External support; states, diaspora groups, foreign mercenaries & criminal mafia
Modes of warfare; guerilla, terrorist, ground & remote warfare, hybrid warfare, cyber
warfare, autonomous warfare etc.
War economies: military industrial complex, military-tech-complex & resources
Revolution in (communication) technology; social media, drones, AI, autonomous weapons
Conflict Analysis 6
Conflict Analysis 1
, Rarely a day passes without the media reporting on violent uprisings, military
coups, suicide bombings, civilian casualties and international interventions all
over the world. In conflict studies, these events are often discussed using a
range of concepts such as ‘civil war’, ‘protracted social conflict’, ’terrorism’ and
‘invasions’. Despite this proliferation of terms, clarifying the complexity of
violent conflict in the 21st century remains a challenging task.
Rather than choosing one of these labels, this introductory course
presents a variety of theoretical approaches that have been developed in the
field of Conflict Studies that aim to understand why and how different actors
resort to violence in internationalised intrastate conflict. Each of these theories
use different analytical categories to study different aspect of the phenomena
under investigation. The course respectively focuses on the non-state, state,
paramilitary, and the international actor.
The main aim of this course is to teach you to become better conflict
analysts and help you to understand, and explain to others, the complex array
of actors, interests, and dynamics involved in the violent conflicts we see
around the world today.
Throughout the course we will address pressing issues in contemporary
warfare like: Why are people prepared to die for the notion of a ‘mother
country’, a nation or a religious group? How are terrorist and insurgency
organisations able to mobilize people towards violent action? Why do states
deploy starvation and sieges as a weapon of war in response? Why do states
outsource violence to paramilitaries? How and why do international actors
forge transnational alliances to intervene in theatres of war?
We will focus on a broad range of contemporary case studies, such as
Colombia, Ukraine, Syria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Collectively, grappling with these different layers of analysis in isolation and in
relation to one another and different case studies will sharpen your conceptual
and analytical capacities greatly. In this course we predominantly focus on
analysing the ‘intra-state’ dynamics of violent conflict, while in block 2 we learn
how to analyse the ‘international’ dimension of 21st century war. This course is
essential for those who plan to participate in upcoming courses of the Conflict
Studies minor.
Conflict Analysis 2
, Hoorcollege 1: Introduction Conflict
Studies & Mapping
Introduction: Conflict Studies & Conflict Mapping
Lecturer: Dr. François Lenfant (Assistant Professor at the Centre for Conflict
Studies)
During this session, an introduction will be given to the field of conflict studies,
the most important assumptions, concepts and definitions herein, and how the
field and the nature of violent conflicts around the world have developed over
time. Hereafter, the fine art of conflict analysis and mapping are introduced.
Conflict analysis entails unravelling the complex dynamics of interactive
processes in order to understand when, how and why groups of people resort to
violence. A conflict map (written or graphic) is a short and concise analysis of a
violent conflict that gives insight into the background, main actors, issues, the
different levels and dynamics of a particular case study.
Introduction
Lectures: Overview of key actors, interests, technologies and dynamics involved in
(internationalized) instrastate conflict.
Workshops: Conflict map assignment & literature
Conflict analysis aims to unravel the complexity of the web of relations and alliances producing
contemporary war and violence and examines the way clusters of conflict cross-infect and
exacerbate each other.
Youtube video: Conflict in the DRC (World of Africa)
link to youtube video: https://youtu.be/W1IYd5vJ6og?si=KpndKvcIUM7hdQII
Which layer is emphasised?
Conflict Analysis 3
, Resources: Western perspective shows primarily the recourses
DRC: just mention M23; nothing on the history, just gvts; no mentioning of 150 plus armed
groups, of state chaos, corruption, predatory state structures
Therefore, the video is NOT convincing enough
Conflict analysis: Two main questions
1. How?
Organisation, finance, recruitment, weaponry…
2. Why?
motivation, fear humilitation, belonging, gain…
Why are resentments against the presence of France in its former African colonies on the increase
recently? (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad)
Less than Russia for example
Easy narratives don’t capture the essence of the problem
How did the Taliban able to ris to power so quickly in the summer of 2021?
They don’t fully grasp the problem. They want to impose a western structure/solution that
does not work there
We need to be creative, theories are not just able to be applied and work in these cases
Field of conflict studies
Conflict studies is a field of studies, not a discipline
Multidisciplinary approach to Conflict analysis
Main question: How and why do groups of people resort to violent conflict?
What is a conflict?
Conflict Analysis 4
, Conflict is:
“Any situation in whicvh two or more social entities or parties (however defined or
structured) perceive that they possess mutually incompatible goals.” (Mitchell, 1981: 17).
“a situation in which actors use conflict behaviour against each other to attain incompatible
goals and/or to express their hostility .”(Bartos & Wehr)
Conflict Triangle - Mitchell
Triangle explanation
1. Situation = Contradition
2. Behaviors = actions
3. Attitudes = ideals and feelings
Violent Conflict
The field of Conflict Studies addresses how different research traditions explain and
understand the occurrence of violence in situations of conflict. Our focus is on violence in
conflict, not on conflict as such.
Violence is not a quantitative degree of conflict but a qualitative form of conflict, with its
own dynamics.
Conflict Analysis 5
, Violence: Why do they resort to violent? Some people resort to violence, other don’t.
"An act of physical hurt deemed legitimate by the performer and illegitmate by (some)
witnesses" (Riches 1986: 8)
"Violent acts are efficient because of their staging of power and legitimacy, probably more so
than due to their physical results"(Schroder & Schmidt 2001: 6)
Making sense of violence
“Violence is a slippery concept – nonlinear, productive, destructive, and
reproductive”(Scheper-Hughes and Bourgois, 2004: 1)
“… defies easy categorization. It can be everything and nothing; illegitimate and legitimate;
visible or invisible; necessary oruseless; senseless and gratuitous or utterly rational or
strategic” (ibid: 2)
Intrastate Conflict definition
Within a territory of a sovereign state
Government and non-state actor ascombatants
Battle deaths exceed a particular threshold(+/- 1000 deaths per year)
Current “new” wars
Do not have precise beginnings or formal ends, geocentric and target centric
Protracted & no clear distinction between war and peace
External support; states, diaspora groups, foreign mercenaries & criminal mafia
Modes of warfare; guerilla, terrorist, ground & remote warfare, hybrid warfare, cyber
warfare, autonomous warfare etc.
War economies: military industrial complex, military-tech-complex & resources
Revolution in (communication) technology; social media, drones, AI, autonomous weapons
Conflict Analysis 6
