Tab 1
, Advanced Geopolitics
Session 1
Geopolitical Update 2025
The U.S., according to academia
- Beckley: “Rogue superpower”
- Gates: “Dysfunctional superpower”
The U.S. Politics “Norm” or “DNA” → Multilateralism, Free Trade, Liberal Values
2024-2025
- As the U.S. enjoys a comfortable majority in government, legislature (House and
Senate), and judiciary (Supreme Court), Trump’s actions now are more likely to be
decisive than after the mid-term elections.
- There is a current ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, but it is fragile.
- IDF is pulling out significantly from Gaza, and Trump is attempting to rebuild Gaza
under U.S. auspices (inviting Jordan and Egypt).
- The Taiwan-China conflict is still ongoing.
Interstate wars and deaths caused by violence are on the rise.
Inequality continues to lead to waves of populism.
With new maritime routes being created due to melting ice, there are many opportunities to
get natural resources and new trade routes.
Three main focuses of 2024
1. U.S.-China Rivalry → Economic, military, and technological tensions between the two
global powers.
2. Russia-Ukraine War → Ongoing conflict and its geopolitical consequences.
3. Middle East Conflicts and U.S. Policy → U.S. involvement in regional tensions,
including Israel, Iran, and surrounding nations.
Other “forgotten” conflicts
- Sudanese Civil War (2023-present)
Middle East (2023- present)
- Will the price of oil be materially affected?
- Despite several oil price shocks in history, the price of oil has more or less stabilized.
This remains a question for the future.
,Iran’s oil
- As Trump promised, sanctions on Iran, Iran began selling more to China
- As of 2023, China represented ⅓ of Iran's trade (the largest trading partner)
- China has also protected Iran at the UNSC voting
- 90% of Iranian oil production is exported to China (this magnitude has tripled
between 2020 and 2023)
- Importantly, for China, Iran represents only 10% of its oil imports
- Daily income for Iran coming from China (just in oil) is US$ 150 million
- China has kept a silent position about the Hamas-Israeli war, but has asked Iran to
stop the Houthis from attacking the Red Sea vessels
- Iran and China have common interests in the BRI
Ceasefire in Gaza
- IDF forces are pulling out, and people are coming back to the destroyed lands.
- Trump is proposing to “take Gaza” and rebuild it.
- The U.S. is becoming more and more imperialistic. This is becoming a trend
among global powers (e.g., Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan)
- Netanyahu was the first leader to visit Trump after he took office, and he said Trump
was the closest ally of Israel in history.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria after 50+ years in power
, - Victory for Turkey
Iran’s Axis of Resistance weakened (What is the next step for the US and Israel?)
- Only Israel and Lebanon are better off.
- Iran is experiencing domestic unrest. As a response, Netanyahu has employed public
diplomacy towards Iranians. However, there is still strong opposition from Iranians to
Netanyahu.
- In conventional terms, Iran has the largest military capacity in the Middle East.
However, Israel has nuclear weapons, arguably making it more powerful. In any
case, a conflict between these powers would be brutal.
Trump’s Second Administration
Trump → “the most consequential American President since Roosevelt” (The Economist)
The U.S. left the UNHRC and the Paris Agreement. It threatens IOs and allies, scaling the
impact of his policies in his first term.
Trump is the first convicted felon to be elected in the “modern Western democratic world.”
, Advanced Geopolitics
Session 1
Geopolitical Update 2025
The U.S., according to academia
- Beckley: “Rogue superpower”
- Gates: “Dysfunctional superpower”
The U.S. Politics “Norm” or “DNA” → Multilateralism, Free Trade, Liberal Values
2024-2025
- As the U.S. enjoys a comfortable majority in government, legislature (House and
Senate), and judiciary (Supreme Court), Trump’s actions now are more likely to be
decisive than after the mid-term elections.
- There is a current ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, but it is fragile.
- IDF is pulling out significantly from Gaza, and Trump is attempting to rebuild Gaza
under U.S. auspices (inviting Jordan and Egypt).
- The Taiwan-China conflict is still ongoing.
Interstate wars and deaths caused by violence are on the rise.
Inequality continues to lead to waves of populism.
With new maritime routes being created due to melting ice, there are many opportunities to
get natural resources and new trade routes.
Three main focuses of 2024
1. U.S.-China Rivalry → Economic, military, and technological tensions between the two
global powers.
2. Russia-Ukraine War → Ongoing conflict and its geopolitical consequences.
3. Middle East Conflicts and U.S. Policy → U.S. involvement in regional tensions,
including Israel, Iran, and surrounding nations.
Other “forgotten” conflicts
- Sudanese Civil War (2023-present)
Middle East (2023- present)
- Will the price of oil be materially affected?
- Despite several oil price shocks in history, the price of oil has more or less stabilized.
This remains a question for the future.
,Iran’s oil
- As Trump promised, sanctions on Iran, Iran began selling more to China
- As of 2023, China represented ⅓ of Iran's trade (the largest trading partner)
- China has also protected Iran at the UNSC voting
- 90% of Iranian oil production is exported to China (this magnitude has tripled
between 2020 and 2023)
- Importantly, for China, Iran represents only 10% of its oil imports
- Daily income for Iran coming from China (just in oil) is US$ 150 million
- China has kept a silent position about the Hamas-Israeli war, but has asked Iran to
stop the Houthis from attacking the Red Sea vessels
- Iran and China have common interests in the BRI
Ceasefire in Gaza
- IDF forces are pulling out, and people are coming back to the destroyed lands.
- Trump is proposing to “take Gaza” and rebuild it.
- The U.S. is becoming more and more imperialistic. This is becoming a trend
among global powers (e.g., Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan)
- Netanyahu was the first leader to visit Trump after he took office, and he said Trump
was the closest ally of Israel in history.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria after 50+ years in power
, - Victory for Turkey
Iran’s Axis of Resistance weakened (What is the next step for the US and Israel?)
- Only Israel and Lebanon are better off.
- Iran is experiencing domestic unrest. As a response, Netanyahu has employed public
diplomacy towards Iranians. However, there is still strong opposition from Iranians to
Netanyahu.
- In conventional terms, Iran has the largest military capacity in the Middle East.
However, Israel has nuclear weapons, arguably making it more powerful. In any
case, a conflict between these powers would be brutal.
Trump’s Second Administration
Trump → “the most consequential American President since Roosevelt” (The Economist)
The U.S. left the UNHRC and the Paris Agreement. It threatens IOs and allies, scaling the
impact of his policies in his first term.
Trump is the first convicted felon to be elected in the “modern Western democratic world.”
