CISB EXAM 2 2025 QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

CISB EXAM 2 2025 QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS


Autoregressive model - ANS A regression model in which a regression relationship based on
past time series values is used to predict the future time series values.


Causal Models - ANS Forecasting methods that relate a time series to other variables that are
believed to explain or cause its behavior.


Cyclical Pattern - ANS The component of the time series that results in periodic above-trend
and below-trend behavior of the time series lasting more than one year.


Exponential Smoothing - ANS A forecasting method that uses a weighted average of past
time series values as the forecast


Forecast Error - ANS the amount by which the forecasted value (y hat) differs from the
observed value (y sub 1)


Forecasts - ANS a prediction of future values of a time series


Mean absolute error (MAE) - ANS A measure of forecasting accuracy; the average of the
values of the forecast errors.


Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) - ANS A measure of the accuracy of a forecasting
method; the average of the absolute values of the errors as a percentage of the corresponding
forecast values.



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