3/3/25
British Politics: Brexit - Dr Sean McDaniel
The Vote
● Leave campaign was divided - Nigel Farage ‘Leave.EU’ and Vote Leave.
● Remain focused on ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ campaign.
● UK Government’s official position was to support the ‘Remain’ option - but
Conservatives had free vote.
● The referendum was held on 23rd June 2016.
How Britain Voted
● Total: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● Male: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● Female: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● 18-24: Remain - 73% & Leave - 27%.
● 25-34: Remain - 62% & Leave - 38%.
● 35-44: Remain - 52% & Leave - 48%.
● 45-54: Remain - 44% & Leave - 56%
● 55-64: Remain - 43% & Leave - 57%.
● 65+: Remain - 40% & Leave - 60%.
● Conservatives: Remain - 42% & Leave - 58%.
● Labour: Remain - 63% & Leave - 37%.
● Liberal Democrats: Remain - 70% & Leave - 30%.
● UKIP: Remain - 4% & Leave - 96%.
● Green Party: Remain - 75% & Leave - 25%.
Why Remain voters voted to Remain:
1. The risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the
economy, jobs and prices.
2. Access to the EU single market, while out of the Euro and no-borders area, giving
best of both worlds.
3. A feeling that we would become more isolated by leaving.
Why Leave voters voted to Leave:
1. The principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.
2. Voting to leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration
and its own borders.
3. Remaining meant little or no choice about how the EU expanded its membership or
powers.
Why Brexit?
● Long-term political tension with the European project.
● Social / cultural objections to EU policy.
● Changing domestic political dynamics & the campaign itself.
● Growing inequality and broader populist revolt.
The ‘Europe Issue’.
, ● Menon and Evans (2017) suggest there is/was a ‘Europe issue’ in British politics
characterised by 3 issues:
● Control (sovereignty), Money, Immigration.
● Account focused on EU relations and public perceptions of it.
Control / Sovereignty
● Control over laws / borders / economic policy has been a core contention for
Eurosceptics since the inception of EEC.
● Different variations:
● 1. Thatcher - no to European superstate, 2. Left-wing - EU as a capitalist club, 3.
Democratic deficit - unelected EU bureaucrats erode democracy, 4. Right-wing - FoM
means loss of control of our borders, ECJ overrides British law.
Money
● Sense EU system was rigged against the British in favour of German /French.
● Not wholly wrong - large UK contribution to EU budget initially.
● By 1977, UK contributing 19% of whole EU budget.
● Thatcher rebate in 1984.
● Blair gave back £1 billion per year in return for promises to reform CAP.
● Parties of all stripes used the EU budget to criticise the government of the day.
Immigration
● 2004 EU Eastern enlargement a key moment (e.g. Poland, Czech, Hungary).
● By 2014, 1.5 million EU migrants.
● Cameron pledges to reduce immigration.
● Timing was important - fears over 2015 ‘migrant crisis’.
● Issue points us towards socio-cultural attitudes of nativism.
Changing Domestic Politics
● Eurosceptic wing of Tories grows post-Bruges speech - and gains momentum post-
eurozone crisis.
● Growth of UKIP: 2004 & 2009 EP elections, 2013 local elections and later
Conservative-UKIP defections.
● Cameron’s Bloomberg speech in January 2013 - pledge to hold reference by 2017.
● Tory grandees come out for Brexit - Gove, Johnson.
● Like Wilson in 1975, Cameron wants to settle EU question and discipline party.
Gordon Brown: Brexit ‘was a revolt of the regions - northern industrial towns hit by wave
after wave of crushing global change - that pushed the Brexit vote over the edge’.
Economic Globalisation
● Globalisation has been good for some, but bad for others,
● Ties Brexit to wider phenomenon e.g. Trump.
● FTAs disadvantage workers in developed economies, with higher labour standards -
their economic decline leads to populism (Rodrick 2018).
● Colatone and Stanig (2018) - Leave support was distinctly higher in areas of the
UK most exposed to import competition from low-income countries.
British Politics: Brexit - Dr Sean McDaniel
The Vote
● Leave campaign was divided - Nigel Farage ‘Leave.EU’ and Vote Leave.
● Remain focused on ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ campaign.
● UK Government’s official position was to support the ‘Remain’ option - but
Conservatives had free vote.
● The referendum was held on 23rd June 2016.
How Britain Voted
● Total: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● Male: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● Female: Remain - 48% & Leave - 52%.
● 18-24: Remain - 73% & Leave - 27%.
● 25-34: Remain - 62% & Leave - 38%.
● 35-44: Remain - 52% & Leave - 48%.
● 45-54: Remain - 44% & Leave - 56%
● 55-64: Remain - 43% & Leave - 57%.
● 65+: Remain - 40% & Leave - 60%.
● Conservatives: Remain - 42% & Leave - 58%.
● Labour: Remain - 63% & Leave - 37%.
● Liberal Democrats: Remain - 70% & Leave - 30%.
● UKIP: Remain - 4% & Leave - 96%.
● Green Party: Remain - 75% & Leave - 25%.
Why Remain voters voted to Remain:
1. The risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the
economy, jobs and prices.
2. Access to the EU single market, while out of the Euro and no-borders area, giving
best of both worlds.
3. A feeling that we would become more isolated by leaving.
Why Leave voters voted to Leave:
1. The principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.
2. Voting to leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration
and its own borders.
3. Remaining meant little or no choice about how the EU expanded its membership or
powers.
Why Brexit?
● Long-term political tension with the European project.
● Social / cultural objections to EU policy.
● Changing domestic political dynamics & the campaign itself.
● Growing inequality and broader populist revolt.
The ‘Europe Issue’.
, ● Menon and Evans (2017) suggest there is/was a ‘Europe issue’ in British politics
characterised by 3 issues:
● Control (sovereignty), Money, Immigration.
● Account focused on EU relations and public perceptions of it.
Control / Sovereignty
● Control over laws / borders / economic policy has been a core contention for
Eurosceptics since the inception of EEC.
● Different variations:
● 1. Thatcher - no to European superstate, 2. Left-wing - EU as a capitalist club, 3.
Democratic deficit - unelected EU bureaucrats erode democracy, 4. Right-wing - FoM
means loss of control of our borders, ECJ overrides British law.
Money
● Sense EU system was rigged against the British in favour of German /French.
● Not wholly wrong - large UK contribution to EU budget initially.
● By 1977, UK contributing 19% of whole EU budget.
● Thatcher rebate in 1984.
● Blair gave back £1 billion per year in return for promises to reform CAP.
● Parties of all stripes used the EU budget to criticise the government of the day.
Immigration
● 2004 EU Eastern enlargement a key moment (e.g. Poland, Czech, Hungary).
● By 2014, 1.5 million EU migrants.
● Cameron pledges to reduce immigration.
● Timing was important - fears over 2015 ‘migrant crisis’.
● Issue points us towards socio-cultural attitudes of nativism.
Changing Domestic Politics
● Eurosceptic wing of Tories grows post-Bruges speech - and gains momentum post-
eurozone crisis.
● Growth of UKIP: 2004 & 2009 EP elections, 2013 local elections and later
Conservative-UKIP defections.
● Cameron’s Bloomberg speech in January 2013 - pledge to hold reference by 2017.
● Tory grandees come out for Brexit - Gove, Johnson.
● Like Wilson in 1975, Cameron wants to settle EU question and discipline party.
Gordon Brown: Brexit ‘was a revolt of the regions - northern industrial towns hit by wave
after wave of crushing global change - that pushed the Brexit vote over the edge’.
Economic Globalisation
● Globalisation has been good for some, but bad for others,
● Ties Brexit to wider phenomenon e.g. Trump.
● FTAs disadvantage workers in developed economies, with higher labour standards -
their economic decline leads to populism (Rodrick 2018).
● Colatone and Stanig (2018) - Leave support was distinctly higher in areas of the
UK most exposed to import competition from low-income countries.
