Personnel selection
Lectures & articles
Week 1: 11/11/2024
HC1: Foundations: predicting, deciding and common selection
methods
Example of selection procedures by students:
• First come first serve / chosen
• Purely random selection (lottery)
• Weighted random selection (gewogen loting)
• Another selection procedure
o Top-down selection, multiple hurdles (multiple phases, selecting the
best), cut-off’s
Principle of efficiency/effectiveness
Selection Efficient/effective Explanation Consequences
procedures (0-4)
First come 1 People are motivated and acting Increasing
first chosen fast, but it is a weak assumption possibility of
control
Pure random 0 The selection procedure is Increasing
selection unrelated to capabilities, KSAO’s, information about
etc. It only works if everybody has applicants
the same quality.
Weighted 3 More chance to be selected if your From educational
random grade average is higher. Not a 4, to commercial
selection because you can still be rejected, setting
even if you have a 9/10 for
example.
Multiple 4 The more factors (valid tests) you From educational
hurdles take into consideration, the more to commercial
you know that you are doing the setting
maximum of your ability to get in
the best people. Does not mean
that you are not making mistakes
during this.
2 basic phases of personnel selection:
• Predicting
• Decision making on the basis of the prediction
1
,Predicting
• Determining the criterion → what do you want to predict (the work outcomes)?
o Determining the criterion (for example: successful job performance)
▪ Determining factor for this is the organizational goal
▪ One’s job success is determined by the extent to which one
contributes to this goal
▪ Profit organizations, non-profit organizations
o Organizational goals: Academe
▪ Educate general problem solvers (‘universitas')
▪ Educate experts
▪ Educate responsible citizens
▪ Provide opportunity for self enhancement
▪ But also: increasing state income
o Requirements for predictors
▪ Observable ‘actual’ behavior in selection situation
▪ Theoretical/logical and empirical relationship with relevant criteria
o The predictive hypothesis:
▪ Identifying what variables (the predictors: knowledge, skills,
abilities, traits, etc.) are likely to predict the criterion
▪ Reasoning that certain measures are valid measures of these
variables
• Determining the predictors → with what do you want to predict?
o Conceptual
o Operational (the measures)
▪ Reliability: replicability, so if you are measuring the same
construct twice, it has so be the same outcome.
▪ Construct validity: it is measuring what it should be measuring.
▪ Predictive validity: whether it is predicting something → most
important requirement for predictors, but irrelevant for criteria →
does the test predict later work success?
▪ Practicality
▪ Fairness/impartiality
Organizational goals: Determination of conceptual Determination of
Academe (example) criteria operational criteria
General theoretical constructs.
Individual characteristics.
Not yet operationalized (how the
constructs are measured)
Educate general problem Student has general knowledge Fail or succeed for elective
solvers courses; at the end of the
study, one’s score on a test
measuring general
knowledge, score on a
national science quiz
Educate experts Student has expert knowledge Fail or succeed for
bachelor’s/master’s exam;
2
, study length in number of
months; grade point
average.
Educate responsible Student has developed good Competency ratings
citizens social & professional skills provided by external
supervisor during internship
Examples of conceptual Conceptual predictors Operational predictors
criteria
General knowledge General knowledge (not specific General knowledge tests
psychological knowledge) (scores on SAT, GRE)
Study success Success in secondary school Grade point average at high
school of relevant courses
(profiel)
Decision making on the basis of the prediction
• Actions/activities (handelingen)
o Rejecting
o Accepting
• Circumstances (omstandigheden)
o Sufficient/successful
o Insufficient/unsuccessful
• Decision outcomes (uitkomsten)
o Result of the combination of activities & circumstances
Outcome table:
• False negatives (A) → onterecht afwijzen
• True positive (B) → terecht aannemen
• True negatives (C) → terecht afwijzen
• False positive (D) → onterecht aannemen
Note:
• Frequencies: numbers of people → A, B, C & D
• Proportions: percentages → a, b, c & d
3
, Definitions:
• Selection Ratio (SR): the percentage of candidates who are hired. Aantal
geaccepteerden, ongeacht geschikte of niet.
o b+d
• Base Rate (BR): how the quality is of your group of applicants in the first place.
Iedereen die geschikte is, ongeacht aangenomen of niet.
o a+b
Selection outcome expressed in:
• Proportion (%) of correct decisions
• Success Rate (SU): the percentage of successful candidates within the hired
group. It provides an indication of the effectiveness of the selection process.
o b / (b + d)
Note: a + b + c + d = 1
Selection outcome is not only affected by test validity but also by selection ratio & base
rate
From the formula for the validity of a test the computational formula of the validity (phi
coefficient) can be derived, and b can be calculated.
Answers selection outcomes:
• Proportion valid outcomes (b + c) = .325 + .325 = .650
• Success Ratio (SU) = .325 / (.325 + .175) = .650 → 65% will be successful
Recap characteristics of predictors and criteria
• Predictors
o Observable behavior in the selection situation
o Mostly not direct mirror of work behavior (with exception of the so-called
work sample)
• Criteria
o Unobservable in selection situation
o Mirrors job behavior but not necessarily identical to job behavior
4
Lectures & articles
Week 1: 11/11/2024
HC1: Foundations: predicting, deciding and common selection
methods
Example of selection procedures by students:
• First come first serve / chosen
• Purely random selection (lottery)
• Weighted random selection (gewogen loting)
• Another selection procedure
o Top-down selection, multiple hurdles (multiple phases, selecting the
best), cut-off’s
Principle of efficiency/effectiveness
Selection Efficient/effective Explanation Consequences
procedures (0-4)
First come 1 People are motivated and acting Increasing
first chosen fast, but it is a weak assumption possibility of
control
Pure random 0 The selection procedure is Increasing
selection unrelated to capabilities, KSAO’s, information about
etc. It only works if everybody has applicants
the same quality.
Weighted 3 More chance to be selected if your From educational
random grade average is higher. Not a 4, to commercial
selection because you can still be rejected, setting
even if you have a 9/10 for
example.
Multiple 4 The more factors (valid tests) you From educational
hurdles take into consideration, the more to commercial
you know that you are doing the setting
maximum of your ability to get in
the best people. Does not mean
that you are not making mistakes
during this.
2 basic phases of personnel selection:
• Predicting
• Decision making on the basis of the prediction
1
,Predicting
• Determining the criterion → what do you want to predict (the work outcomes)?
o Determining the criterion (for example: successful job performance)
▪ Determining factor for this is the organizational goal
▪ One’s job success is determined by the extent to which one
contributes to this goal
▪ Profit organizations, non-profit organizations
o Organizational goals: Academe
▪ Educate general problem solvers (‘universitas')
▪ Educate experts
▪ Educate responsible citizens
▪ Provide opportunity for self enhancement
▪ But also: increasing state income
o Requirements for predictors
▪ Observable ‘actual’ behavior in selection situation
▪ Theoretical/logical and empirical relationship with relevant criteria
o The predictive hypothesis:
▪ Identifying what variables (the predictors: knowledge, skills,
abilities, traits, etc.) are likely to predict the criterion
▪ Reasoning that certain measures are valid measures of these
variables
• Determining the predictors → with what do you want to predict?
o Conceptual
o Operational (the measures)
▪ Reliability: replicability, so if you are measuring the same
construct twice, it has so be the same outcome.
▪ Construct validity: it is measuring what it should be measuring.
▪ Predictive validity: whether it is predicting something → most
important requirement for predictors, but irrelevant for criteria →
does the test predict later work success?
▪ Practicality
▪ Fairness/impartiality
Organizational goals: Determination of conceptual Determination of
Academe (example) criteria operational criteria
General theoretical constructs.
Individual characteristics.
Not yet operationalized (how the
constructs are measured)
Educate general problem Student has general knowledge Fail or succeed for elective
solvers courses; at the end of the
study, one’s score on a test
measuring general
knowledge, score on a
national science quiz
Educate experts Student has expert knowledge Fail or succeed for
bachelor’s/master’s exam;
2
, study length in number of
months; grade point
average.
Educate responsible Student has developed good Competency ratings
citizens social & professional skills provided by external
supervisor during internship
Examples of conceptual Conceptual predictors Operational predictors
criteria
General knowledge General knowledge (not specific General knowledge tests
psychological knowledge) (scores on SAT, GRE)
Study success Success in secondary school Grade point average at high
school of relevant courses
(profiel)
Decision making on the basis of the prediction
• Actions/activities (handelingen)
o Rejecting
o Accepting
• Circumstances (omstandigheden)
o Sufficient/successful
o Insufficient/unsuccessful
• Decision outcomes (uitkomsten)
o Result of the combination of activities & circumstances
Outcome table:
• False negatives (A) → onterecht afwijzen
• True positive (B) → terecht aannemen
• True negatives (C) → terecht afwijzen
• False positive (D) → onterecht aannemen
Note:
• Frequencies: numbers of people → A, B, C & D
• Proportions: percentages → a, b, c & d
3
, Definitions:
• Selection Ratio (SR): the percentage of candidates who are hired. Aantal
geaccepteerden, ongeacht geschikte of niet.
o b+d
• Base Rate (BR): how the quality is of your group of applicants in the first place.
Iedereen die geschikte is, ongeacht aangenomen of niet.
o a+b
Selection outcome expressed in:
• Proportion (%) of correct decisions
• Success Rate (SU): the percentage of successful candidates within the hired
group. It provides an indication of the effectiveness of the selection process.
o b / (b + d)
Note: a + b + c + d = 1
Selection outcome is not only affected by test validity but also by selection ratio & base
rate
From the formula for the validity of a test the computational formula of the validity (phi
coefficient) can be derived, and b can be calculated.
Answers selection outcomes:
• Proportion valid outcomes (b + c) = .325 + .325 = .650
• Success Ratio (SU) = .325 / (.325 + .175) = .650 → 65% will be successful
Recap characteristics of predictors and criteria
• Predictors
o Observable behavior in the selection situation
o Mostly not direct mirror of work behavior (with exception of the so-called
work sample)
• Criteria
o Unobservable in selection situation
o Mirrors job behavior but not necessarily identical to job behavior
4
