MEGATRENDS & DISRUPTION: FRAMEWORK STILL VALID?
1. COMPANIES GROW FASTER
WHAT IS THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF A COMPANY?
Average lifespan of companies is now 5 years (it used to be 75 years)
How long does it take to become a huge company? It takes 20 years (average), while it took facebook
5 years, Tesla 4 years, Uber 2,5 years and Google 8 years to reach a 1 billion market cap
HOW TO COPE WITH UNICORNS?
Winners will win bigger and the rest will fight harder for the remains
2. MEGATRENDS CHANGE THE WORLD
FOUR MEGATRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD OF THE FUTURE
demographic dynamics, sharing responsibility, disruptive technologies, social values & behavior
1. DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS
o Growing population
o Urban population
o Aging population => this is of great importance when growing/founding a business
- Growing: more people means more waste and more waste treatment
- Urban: more people living in cities means investing in public transport
- Aging: if people get older, why not invest in elderly care, holidays for the elderly (for ex. Cruise)
SAM STROO 1
,GROWTH OF POPULATION
o The poplution growth was flat until the industrialization
o End WW I in 1918, WW killed a lot of people you can’t even see this in the graph
o Today: 8 million people
URBANIZATION
o More people move to the cities
o Cities that will be become megacities
o New York now 18,5 million and will become 19, … million will stay approximately the same
o Kinshasa now 11 million and will become 20 million by 2030
o Nigeria has an exploiting population, it will double
o Tokyo 37 million
o Shanghai 30 million
=> NEED FOR SMART CITIES AND MEGA CITIES WITH MEGA GROWTH
Having things connected (you can have air pollution, electric vehicle charging, traffic lights adapted to
the traffic …)
Why will it be needed? Fun gigs, Make things survive, For ex. Buying shoes on the internet, the flow of
getting things to a shop and to the consumer can be managed the need for this will come in the
future
Need for smaller 3D printed homes
This can be built in 24 hours and costs less than 4000 dollars
AGING PEOPLE
1/5 will be more than 60 years old in 2050. These people stop working and cost a lot for society and this
brings a lot of risks. When we are in the middle of our lives, 21.5% of total world population will be over 60
years old
RISKS
o For example: Labor market: a lot of people don’t work anymore
SAM STROO 2
,SOLUTIONS: BIGGEST MARKET GROWTH IN HEALT CARE
o Healthy aging: prevention of chronic diseases, postponement of disability and dependency
o Integrated care models: if you’re ill, you won’t go to the hospital immediately and then you go home
and they track you electronically with help of IT-systems, which include health and social care
o Research: better understanding of aging process and age associated chronic diseases
o Planning for sufficient, well educated, diverse and well distributed health workforce
o Planning for high quality, cost effective, well distributed health care
ROBOTS
Why not have robots taking care of us?
The people in health care will still be needed
OTHER COMPANIES ARE ALSO BENEFITING
The elderly often go on cruises, need technology and health care
=> booming business
2. SHARING RESPONSIBILITY
o Resource insecurity
o Socially responsible
o Ecosystem at risk => Ecosystem: If the world is heating why not invest in a damming system
PURPOSE IN BUSINESS: SEARCH FOR IMPACT
There is a lot wrong with the current world (oil exploitation, forest fires, Antarctica is melting …)
Good news? We have changed our way of producing, resources are scarce but we are doing
something about it. China was one of the biggest investors of renewable energy.
OLD SCHOOL INVESTMENT (INCL. PHILANTHROPY)
Making profit with destruction of community = traditional economy
And afterwards they give it away to good causes (upper left quadrant)
You can also loose money and destroy the planet: war
Ideal: we want to go up right: add value to community and making profit
DIFFERENT STEPS
SAM STROO 3
, 1. CSR is a first step: today there can’t be child labor anymore => people are trying to do less bad
2. Impact investment is the next step: why don’t we invest in profitable business models while adding
value to community, for example: consulting company that works exclusively with autistic people and
they see an opportunity in that they can do model en security checking, so they find things that other
people can’t find: profitable and good for society helping autistic people on a job
FORBES ON IMPACT INVESTING
Innovative, disruptive, big global industry
Blurs the line between giving and investing
Combining financial investing and the heart of philanthropy: financial and social return
Venture capitalist, experienced investor, bank
UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
o Centralized program view to improve the world that we live in
o Fight poverty, hunger, health problems, ..
o Try to partner to get things done
o Why is this model powerful? Company’s and corporations can identify themselves with these goals
and start working on these goals
GREENWASH OR CSR OR REAL IMPACT ECONOMY
GREENWASH: pretending not to do bad: solving your problems with a marketing campaign
CASES: is this about greenwashing, CSR or really trying to do good?
For ex. Tony’s chocolonely => fair trade
Veja: sneakers made out of natural elements, working with local population in Brazil and from
recycled materials, it is a kind of upcycling
Put social responsibility ahead of profits to make more profits => no supply without demand
By 2020 more people will have mobile phones than electricity at home
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
= bringing as much as we can back in the production cycle: make use and return
If we can recycle things, we are participating in circular economy
Instead of repairing, buying a new one is our consumption pattern, when we should reuse things
New business model: creating services: for 100 euro a year we keep your product up to date
SAM STROO 4
1. COMPANIES GROW FASTER
WHAT IS THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF A COMPANY?
Average lifespan of companies is now 5 years (it used to be 75 years)
How long does it take to become a huge company? It takes 20 years (average), while it took facebook
5 years, Tesla 4 years, Uber 2,5 years and Google 8 years to reach a 1 billion market cap
HOW TO COPE WITH UNICORNS?
Winners will win bigger and the rest will fight harder for the remains
2. MEGATRENDS CHANGE THE WORLD
FOUR MEGATRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD OF THE FUTURE
demographic dynamics, sharing responsibility, disruptive technologies, social values & behavior
1. DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS
o Growing population
o Urban population
o Aging population => this is of great importance when growing/founding a business
- Growing: more people means more waste and more waste treatment
- Urban: more people living in cities means investing in public transport
- Aging: if people get older, why not invest in elderly care, holidays for the elderly (for ex. Cruise)
SAM STROO 1
,GROWTH OF POPULATION
o The poplution growth was flat until the industrialization
o End WW I in 1918, WW killed a lot of people you can’t even see this in the graph
o Today: 8 million people
URBANIZATION
o More people move to the cities
o Cities that will be become megacities
o New York now 18,5 million and will become 19, … million will stay approximately the same
o Kinshasa now 11 million and will become 20 million by 2030
o Nigeria has an exploiting population, it will double
o Tokyo 37 million
o Shanghai 30 million
=> NEED FOR SMART CITIES AND MEGA CITIES WITH MEGA GROWTH
Having things connected (you can have air pollution, electric vehicle charging, traffic lights adapted to
the traffic …)
Why will it be needed? Fun gigs, Make things survive, For ex. Buying shoes on the internet, the flow of
getting things to a shop and to the consumer can be managed the need for this will come in the
future
Need for smaller 3D printed homes
This can be built in 24 hours and costs less than 4000 dollars
AGING PEOPLE
1/5 will be more than 60 years old in 2050. These people stop working and cost a lot for society and this
brings a lot of risks. When we are in the middle of our lives, 21.5% of total world population will be over 60
years old
RISKS
o For example: Labor market: a lot of people don’t work anymore
SAM STROO 2
,SOLUTIONS: BIGGEST MARKET GROWTH IN HEALT CARE
o Healthy aging: prevention of chronic diseases, postponement of disability and dependency
o Integrated care models: if you’re ill, you won’t go to the hospital immediately and then you go home
and they track you electronically with help of IT-systems, which include health and social care
o Research: better understanding of aging process and age associated chronic diseases
o Planning for sufficient, well educated, diverse and well distributed health workforce
o Planning for high quality, cost effective, well distributed health care
ROBOTS
Why not have robots taking care of us?
The people in health care will still be needed
OTHER COMPANIES ARE ALSO BENEFITING
The elderly often go on cruises, need technology and health care
=> booming business
2. SHARING RESPONSIBILITY
o Resource insecurity
o Socially responsible
o Ecosystem at risk => Ecosystem: If the world is heating why not invest in a damming system
PURPOSE IN BUSINESS: SEARCH FOR IMPACT
There is a lot wrong with the current world (oil exploitation, forest fires, Antarctica is melting …)
Good news? We have changed our way of producing, resources are scarce but we are doing
something about it. China was one of the biggest investors of renewable energy.
OLD SCHOOL INVESTMENT (INCL. PHILANTHROPY)
Making profit with destruction of community = traditional economy
And afterwards they give it away to good causes (upper left quadrant)
You can also loose money and destroy the planet: war
Ideal: we want to go up right: add value to community and making profit
DIFFERENT STEPS
SAM STROO 3
, 1. CSR is a first step: today there can’t be child labor anymore => people are trying to do less bad
2. Impact investment is the next step: why don’t we invest in profitable business models while adding
value to community, for example: consulting company that works exclusively with autistic people and
they see an opportunity in that they can do model en security checking, so they find things that other
people can’t find: profitable and good for society helping autistic people on a job
FORBES ON IMPACT INVESTING
Innovative, disruptive, big global industry
Blurs the line between giving and investing
Combining financial investing and the heart of philanthropy: financial and social return
Venture capitalist, experienced investor, bank
UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
o Centralized program view to improve the world that we live in
o Fight poverty, hunger, health problems, ..
o Try to partner to get things done
o Why is this model powerful? Company’s and corporations can identify themselves with these goals
and start working on these goals
GREENWASH OR CSR OR REAL IMPACT ECONOMY
GREENWASH: pretending not to do bad: solving your problems with a marketing campaign
CASES: is this about greenwashing, CSR or really trying to do good?
For ex. Tony’s chocolonely => fair trade
Veja: sneakers made out of natural elements, working with local population in Brazil and from
recycled materials, it is a kind of upcycling
Put social responsibility ahead of profits to make more profits => no supply without demand
By 2020 more people will have mobile phones than electricity at home
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
= bringing as much as we can back in the production cycle: make use and return
If we can recycle things, we are participating in circular economy
Instead of repairing, buying a new one is our consumption pattern, when we should reuse things
New business model: creating services: for 100 euro a year we keep your product up to date
SAM STROO 4
