Contingency factors: short term
Factors deeply interlinked
Outcome X intent X cause – cannot use outcome to determine intent/ cause
Cannot judge intention by outcome
ATFQ !!!
Sources = bullet points and filter
1868: Nicholas II born – eldest son of Alexander III
1881: Nicholas and father rushed to deathbed of grandfather Alexander II – blown up by terrorist
group The People’s Will
1894: Nicholas’ dad died of kidney disease and Nicholas became Tsar – began to escalate repressive
policies
1895: Lenin sentenced to 3 year isolation in Siberia
1902: Lenin published his Treatise: What is to Be Done?
1903: 2nd Party Congress of SDs – split into 2: Bolsheviks and Mensheviks
1904-5: Russo-Japanese War
1905: Bloody Sunday
1905: revolution
1905: Tsar presented October Manifesto in response to threats
1906: Nicholas went back on a lot he promised – raised Fundamental Laws, stating Russia = still
autocracy
1914: Nicholas mobilises unprepared Russian army for First World War
1914: 5.3 million soldiers mobilised
Jul 1914-Nov 1918 WORLD WAR 1
1914-16: earnings x2, food and fuel prices x4
June 1915: Zemgor formed
Aug 1915: formation of Progressive Bloc – more coordinated, 236/422 Duma deputies – liberals
Sep 1915: WW1 going very badly for Russia – Nicholas decided to assume supreme command of
Russian forces at front = German Tsarina Alexandra influenced by holy man Rasputin in charge of
home front
, June 1916: Brusilov offensive – failed
1916: 575 stations no longer capable of handling freight
1916: Petrograd receiving 1/3 of food and fuel requirements
1916: Rodzianko head of Duma realises problem is in central administration – Zemgor willing to help
war effort but rejected by Nicholas
Jan 1917: 145,000 workers on strike in Petrograd – war closing factories = unemployment
Feb 1917: REVOLUTION (organic)
14th Feb: 100,000 workers took to the street – protesting food shortages and poor working conditions
19th Feb: gov. announced plans to start rationing
23rd Feb: march for International Women’s day but mood changed in afternoon – joined by 50,000 workers
from Vyborg district
24th Feb: 150,000 armed workers on the streets – socialist orators addressed the crowds – still not massively
political
25th Feb: 200,000 workers on the streets – protests into general strike – Petrograd Garrison start to side with
the people
25th Feb: Council of Ministers advise Nicholas II not to engage in open conflict with crowd – he orders General
Khabarovsk to use military forces to put down revolution the next day
26th Feb: soldiers start shooting at the crowd – killing own people as they joined the people – more soldiers
began mutinying – 40,000 rifles, 30,000 revolvers and 100,000 guns – occupied key locations – Nicholas lost
coercive power
27th Feb: 8000 prisoners released by revolutionaries – 25,000 soldiers outside Tauride Palace – left-wing
established Soviet of Workers and Soldiers Deputies (Petrograd Soviet), right-wing proclaimed themselves in
authority – Nicholas accepted a mutiny
28th Feb: soldiers organise defences in Petrograd and clear out last pockets of resistance – Duma tried to
restore calm and order – Soviet establishes military committee of defence
Feb 1917: Progressive Bloc (Duma) proclaim themselves new government
March 1917: (1st March) Soviet Order No. 1 gave Soviet coercive power – Provisional Government
with Dual Authority formed – Petrograd Soviet as watchdog
March 1917: (2nd March) Nicholas abdicated – after Generals advised him to do so
March 1917: PG issue Declaration of War Aims
March 1917: inflation – bread rose by 500%
March 1917: PG grants 8 hour working day and right to unions and strike
March 1917: Stalin and Kamenev return to Petrograd
April 1917: Lenin’s April Theses – returns to Petrograd
April 1917: Bolshevik member numbers grew from 10,000 to 80,000
April 1917: Trotsky joins the Bolsheviks with 4000 followers
June 1917: 400,000 marched under the Bolshevik banner in protest against the war
July 1917: July Offensive/ Kerensky Offensive launched by Kerensky Minister for War against
Germans – failed – coalition with Soviet collapsed
July 1917: July Days – Bolsheviks denounced by the Soviet
20th June: First Machine Gun Regiment ordered to send 2/3 of soldiers to front line – directly contravening
Soviet order number 1
29th June: Lenin left for Finland
3rd July: workers and soldiers marched through city in armed ranks towards Tauride Palace – car sent for Lenin
Factors deeply interlinked
Outcome X intent X cause – cannot use outcome to determine intent/ cause
Cannot judge intention by outcome
ATFQ !!!
Sources = bullet points and filter
1868: Nicholas II born – eldest son of Alexander III
1881: Nicholas and father rushed to deathbed of grandfather Alexander II – blown up by terrorist
group The People’s Will
1894: Nicholas’ dad died of kidney disease and Nicholas became Tsar – began to escalate repressive
policies
1895: Lenin sentenced to 3 year isolation in Siberia
1902: Lenin published his Treatise: What is to Be Done?
1903: 2nd Party Congress of SDs – split into 2: Bolsheviks and Mensheviks
1904-5: Russo-Japanese War
1905: Bloody Sunday
1905: revolution
1905: Tsar presented October Manifesto in response to threats
1906: Nicholas went back on a lot he promised – raised Fundamental Laws, stating Russia = still
autocracy
1914: Nicholas mobilises unprepared Russian army for First World War
1914: 5.3 million soldiers mobilised
Jul 1914-Nov 1918 WORLD WAR 1
1914-16: earnings x2, food and fuel prices x4
June 1915: Zemgor formed
Aug 1915: formation of Progressive Bloc – more coordinated, 236/422 Duma deputies – liberals
Sep 1915: WW1 going very badly for Russia – Nicholas decided to assume supreme command of
Russian forces at front = German Tsarina Alexandra influenced by holy man Rasputin in charge of
home front
, June 1916: Brusilov offensive – failed
1916: 575 stations no longer capable of handling freight
1916: Petrograd receiving 1/3 of food and fuel requirements
1916: Rodzianko head of Duma realises problem is in central administration – Zemgor willing to help
war effort but rejected by Nicholas
Jan 1917: 145,000 workers on strike in Petrograd – war closing factories = unemployment
Feb 1917: REVOLUTION (organic)
14th Feb: 100,000 workers took to the street – protesting food shortages and poor working conditions
19th Feb: gov. announced plans to start rationing
23rd Feb: march for International Women’s day but mood changed in afternoon – joined by 50,000 workers
from Vyborg district
24th Feb: 150,000 armed workers on the streets – socialist orators addressed the crowds – still not massively
political
25th Feb: 200,000 workers on the streets – protests into general strike – Petrograd Garrison start to side with
the people
25th Feb: Council of Ministers advise Nicholas II not to engage in open conflict with crowd – he orders General
Khabarovsk to use military forces to put down revolution the next day
26th Feb: soldiers start shooting at the crowd – killing own people as they joined the people – more soldiers
began mutinying – 40,000 rifles, 30,000 revolvers and 100,000 guns – occupied key locations – Nicholas lost
coercive power
27th Feb: 8000 prisoners released by revolutionaries – 25,000 soldiers outside Tauride Palace – left-wing
established Soviet of Workers and Soldiers Deputies (Petrograd Soviet), right-wing proclaimed themselves in
authority – Nicholas accepted a mutiny
28th Feb: soldiers organise defences in Petrograd and clear out last pockets of resistance – Duma tried to
restore calm and order – Soviet establishes military committee of defence
Feb 1917: Progressive Bloc (Duma) proclaim themselves new government
March 1917: (1st March) Soviet Order No. 1 gave Soviet coercive power – Provisional Government
with Dual Authority formed – Petrograd Soviet as watchdog
March 1917: (2nd March) Nicholas abdicated – after Generals advised him to do so
March 1917: PG issue Declaration of War Aims
March 1917: inflation – bread rose by 500%
March 1917: PG grants 8 hour working day and right to unions and strike
March 1917: Stalin and Kamenev return to Petrograd
April 1917: Lenin’s April Theses – returns to Petrograd
April 1917: Bolshevik member numbers grew from 10,000 to 80,000
April 1917: Trotsky joins the Bolsheviks with 4000 followers
June 1917: 400,000 marched under the Bolshevik banner in protest against the war
July 1917: July Offensive/ Kerensky Offensive launched by Kerensky Minister for War against
Germans – failed – coalition with Soviet collapsed
July 1917: July Days – Bolsheviks denounced by the Soviet
20th June: First Machine Gun Regiment ordered to send 2/3 of soldiers to front line – directly contravening
Soviet order number 1
29th June: Lenin left for Finland
3rd July: workers and soldiers marched through city in armed ranks towards Tauride Palace – car sent for Lenin
