Elections in the US (presidential + congressional)
Incumbency advantage - Congress
Name recognition
o Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
M Keep the status quo
o Robert D Byrd served for 51 years (West Virginia)
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
Length of time – not fit for purpose
2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama still had
just under 2 years left in office
Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
Biden raised $1.5bn dollars
Length of campaign is a good test for physical/mental ability to do the job e.g. Biden
Democratic National Party scheduled 12 debates from June 2019 to March 2020
Lobbying
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
$300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
2016, Congressional candidates averaged $1.16million fundraising
Trump received $4m NRA 2020
Acts e.g. Bi Partisan Campaign Reform Act that limits money
This money is necessary
o Buckley v Valeo – money necessary for free speech
o 2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama
still had just under 2 years left in office
o Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
o Pete Buttigieg + Amy Klobuchar
Incumbency advantage - Congress
Name recognition
o Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
M Keep the status quo
o Robert D Byrd served for 51 years (West Virginia)
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
Length of time – not fit for purpose
2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama still had
just under 2 years left in office
Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
Biden raised $1.5bn dollars
Length of campaign is a good test for physical/mental ability to do the job e.g. Biden
Democratic National Party scheduled 12 debates from June 2019 to March 2020
Lobbying
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
$300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
2016, Congressional candidates averaged $1.16million fundraising
Trump received $4m NRA 2020
Acts e.g. Bi Partisan Campaign Reform Act that limits money
This money is necessary
o Buckley v Valeo – money necessary for free speech
o 2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama
still had just under 2 years left in office
o Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
o Pete Buttigieg + Amy Klobuchar
