Essay Plan: Evaluate the view that incumbency advantage is the most important factor in presidential elections

Incumbency advantage in presidential elections is important



Name recognition – not fit

 Obama – John Wolfe – 117,000 votes, 1.7% popular vote
 Trump – Bill Weld – 2.35% popular vote, 1 delegate

Fringe people still influential

 HW Bush 1992, Pat Buchanan
 Uncovered faults in tax rises and defence spending cuts
 Bernie Sanders
 won 27% vote 2020
 won 39% vote 2016


Discourages good candidates from standing
 Mitt Romney weak challenger to Obama
 18% Americans polled in 2012 said they wouldn’t vote for a Mormon
 10% of Republicans
 John Kerry to G.W.Bush
 Charisma

 Clinton defeated H.W.Bush
 Bush hadn’t suffered a major crisis so wasn’t a weaker candidate
 Biden beating Trump




Past history – safe candidate
 Success of Obama
 PPACA passed 2010
 American Recovery + Reinvestment Act $787bn
 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform
 GW Bush and 9/11


 History can be bad
 Trump’s response to Covid – 106 million cases; Impeachments X2