Power of incumbency (presidential + congressional)
Name recognition – not fit
Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
Obama – John Wolfe – 117,000 votes, 1.7% popular vote
Trump – Bill Weld – 2.35% popular vote, 1 delegate
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
HW Bush 1992, Pat Buchanan
o Uncovered faults in tax rises and defence spending cuts
Jan 6th Investigation
Pork barrelling – not fit
Big Dig, Boston - $14 billion for 3.5 miles
Lisa Murkowski – bridge to nowhere $400 million
Rob Bryd 51 years as a Senator
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
Lobbying
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
$300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
2016, Congressional candidates averaged $1.16million fundraising
2020 Devin Nunes raised $11m more than Phil Arballo in election cycle
2020 Trump $1.3bn v Biden $1.1bn
2020 Mitch McConnell $36m vs Amy McGrath $41m
This money is necessary
o 2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama
still had just under 2 years left in office
o Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
Name recognition – not fit
Susan Collins 2002 elected 58% to 42% but 2014, 68% to 32%
Obama – John Wolfe – 117,000 votes, 1.7% popular vote
Trump – Bill Weld – 2.35% popular vote, 1 delegate
AOC defeated Joseph Crawley (chair of Dem caucus)
HW Bush 1992, Pat Buchanan
o Uncovered faults in tax rises and defence spending cuts
Jan 6th Investigation
Pork barrelling – not fit
Big Dig, Boston - $14 billion for 3.5 miles
Lisa Murkowski – bridge to nowhere $400 million
Rob Bryd 51 years as a Senator
2020 Senate – 3 flipped seats
o Alabama to Republican
o Arizona to Democrat
o Colorado to Democrat
Lobbying
Joe Manchin 2021, $4.8million in fundraising
$300,000 after voting against Build Back Better
2016, Congressional candidates averaged $1.16million fundraising
2020 Devin Nunes raised $11m more than Phil Arballo in election cycle
2020 Trump $1.3bn v Biden $1.1bn
2020 Mitch McConnell $36m vs Amy McGrath $41m
This money is necessary
o 2015, Ted Cruz announced he was running 11 months before first primary, Obama
still had just under 2 years left in office
o Biden announced he was funning April 2019, first primary August 2020
