General Elections
Media, Personality of Party Leaders, Manifesto/policy
Give evidence and relevance
2019
Red Wall broken
Corbyn anti-semitism
Brexit and fatigue/apathy
Didn’t turn up to TV Debates
2019 67% turnout
Youth 18-24 47% turnout, 14 percentage points + since 2014
Eg. Labour outspent Conservatives on social media campaigning by over half a million pounds.
Eg. strategic media publicity was given to Johnson, ensuring he attended beneficial events or
avoided others ie. Andrew Neil interview on BBC1
Eg. Labour refusal to condemn anti-semitism
Eg. ‘Get Brexit Done’ appealing to fatigue. 80% of previous voters had thought that the prev.
govt under May handled Brexit badly.
Eg. 56% voters chose to leave the EU in the North of England - loss of Red Wall
Eg. 48% C2DE social class voted Tory
Eg. YouGov calculated that every 10 years older someone gets, there is a 9 point increase in
their chances of voting Tory.
Eg. Labour won 50% of vote amongst voters 18-39, 56% 18-24
Eg. Those above 70 only have a 14% chance of voting Labour
Eg. 2% difference in how men and women voters
Eg. 2019 Labour manifesto included a lot of ‘freebies’ - working class repelled by idea of
dependency culture - Thatcher
Eg. The age when votes for Tories overtakes for Labour fell 8 years from 2017 to 2019
Eg. Labour vote share fell by 10% for white people and 9% for BAME people
Eg. BME 52% turnout, White 63% turnout
Eg. The Conservatives won 88% of the vote from their 2017 supporters, while Labour won 80%
of their 2017 vote.
Eg. The Conservatives had a 73% to 15% lead over Labour among Leave voters, representing
an 8.5 point swing to Boris Johnson’s party since 2017. Among Remain voters, just under half
(48%) voted Labour, 21% Liberal Democrats, and 20% the Conservatives.
Conclusions
, The importance of social class as a determinant of voting behaviour has reduced massively
over time - particularly from the Second World War to 2015. However, it is possible that there
has been a change in voting behaviour that could mean working class, lower income voters are
more likely to vote Conservative, and middle class, higher income voters Labour. However, it
remains to be seen whether this is a temporary situation caused by Brexit.
Age is a vitally important predictor of voting behaviour, and has become so in even more stark a
manner in 2019. Age becomes even more salient because older people (more likely to vote
Conservative) vote in much higher numbers than younger people. Meanwhile, there is no clear
difference in Gender voting - although a noticeable difference in the youngest age group, where
a lot fewer females voted Conservative than males.
Ethnicity is another area in which Labour’s vote fell across the board. But the rise in White
people voting for Conservatives, combined with their higher turnout, would have been influential
1997
Election due - PM thought that by giving the public a lot of notice (6 weeks prior) would give him
time to improve his position on opinion polls.
1992 - the pound crashed in the exchange rate, ruined Tory reputation for economic excellence
New Labour - free market
Blair had a popular personality
Murdoch meeting in Australia - Media support for Labour
Eg. The Sun went from being 20 year Tory supporters to endorsing Blair
- Dominant ideology theory - media tends to sway to 1 option. More likely to advocate for
the party to support the business behind the press.
Eg. 43% of circulated newspapers were pro Labour in 1997
Class
Eg. C1 was split equally between Conservatives and Labour, both parties winning 37% of each
Eg. New Labour campaign success - centrist stance, Blair accelerated this change in image
Eg. John Major was mocked in cartoons and on TV satire
Eg. John Major ‘Back to Basics’ focused on family values, the press released every example of
Conservative ministers and MPs behaving in ways that deviated from these values (sex
scandals etc)
Eg. 71% of voters were dissatisfied with government according to one survey
Eg. Gender didnt have much effect on the vote - 45% men Labour, 44% women Labour
Eg. Labour vote increased by 12 points for 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds.
Media, Personality of Party Leaders, Manifesto/policy
Give evidence and relevance
2019
Red Wall broken
Corbyn anti-semitism
Brexit and fatigue/apathy
Didn’t turn up to TV Debates
2019 67% turnout
Youth 18-24 47% turnout, 14 percentage points + since 2014
Eg. Labour outspent Conservatives on social media campaigning by over half a million pounds.
Eg. strategic media publicity was given to Johnson, ensuring he attended beneficial events or
avoided others ie. Andrew Neil interview on BBC1
Eg. Labour refusal to condemn anti-semitism
Eg. ‘Get Brexit Done’ appealing to fatigue. 80% of previous voters had thought that the prev.
govt under May handled Brexit badly.
Eg. 56% voters chose to leave the EU in the North of England - loss of Red Wall
Eg. 48% C2DE social class voted Tory
Eg. YouGov calculated that every 10 years older someone gets, there is a 9 point increase in
their chances of voting Tory.
Eg. Labour won 50% of vote amongst voters 18-39, 56% 18-24
Eg. Those above 70 only have a 14% chance of voting Labour
Eg. 2% difference in how men and women voters
Eg. 2019 Labour manifesto included a lot of ‘freebies’ - working class repelled by idea of
dependency culture - Thatcher
Eg. The age when votes for Tories overtakes for Labour fell 8 years from 2017 to 2019
Eg. Labour vote share fell by 10% for white people and 9% for BAME people
Eg. BME 52% turnout, White 63% turnout
Eg. The Conservatives won 88% of the vote from their 2017 supporters, while Labour won 80%
of their 2017 vote.
Eg. The Conservatives had a 73% to 15% lead over Labour among Leave voters, representing
an 8.5 point swing to Boris Johnson’s party since 2017. Among Remain voters, just under half
(48%) voted Labour, 21% Liberal Democrats, and 20% the Conservatives.
Conclusions
, The importance of social class as a determinant of voting behaviour has reduced massively
over time - particularly from the Second World War to 2015. However, it is possible that there
has been a change in voting behaviour that could mean working class, lower income voters are
more likely to vote Conservative, and middle class, higher income voters Labour. However, it
remains to be seen whether this is a temporary situation caused by Brexit.
Age is a vitally important predictor of voting behaviour, and has become so in even more stark a
manner in 2019. Age becomes even more salient because older people (more likely to vote
Conservative) vote in much higher numbers than younger people. Meanwhile, there is no clear
difference in Gender voting - although a noticeable difference in the youngest age group, where
a lot fewer females voted Conservative than males.
Ethnicity is another area in which Labour’s vote fell across the board. But the rise in White
people voting for Conservatives, combined with their higher turnout, would have been influential
1997
Election due - PM thought that by giving the public a lot of notice (6 weeks prior) would give him
time to improve his position on opinion polls.
1992 - the pound crashed in the exchange rate, ruined Tory reputation for economic excellence
New Labour - free market
Blair had a popular personality
Murdoch meeting in Australia - Media support for Labour
Eg. The Sun went from being 20 year Tory supporters to endorsing Blair
- Dominant ideology theory - media tends to sway to 1 option. More likely to advocate for
the party to support the business behind the press.
Eg. 43% of circulated newspapers were pro Labour in 1997
Class
Eg. C1 was split equally between Conservatives and Labour, both parties winning 37% of each
Eg. New Labour campaign success - centrist stance, Blair accelerated this change in image
Eg. John Major was mocked in cartoons and on TV satire
Eg. John Major ‘Back to Basics’ focused on family values, the press released every example of
Conservative ministers and MPs behaving in ways that deviated from these values (sex
scandals etc)
Eg. 71% of voters were dissatisfied with government according to one survey
Eg. Gender didnt have much effect on the vote - 45% men Labour, 44% women Labour
Eg. Labour vote increased by 12 points for 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds.
