Elections – 15 markers
What is the invisible primary, and why is it so important?
• Definition:
o The period between when a candidate announces they are running for office and the
first primary
o It is more a media phenomenon that establishes the candidate’s platform, personality
and chances, whilst also giving an opportunity for funding to begin
• Why is it so important?
o Momentum and name recognition
§ Both Trump and Clinton established momentum in 2016, with both their poll
numbers rising gradually
o Establishes a political identity
§ Bernie Sanders’ identity was firmly established during the invisible primaries,
whilst the Republicans’ focus on immigration has been evident
o Fundraising chances
§ Clinton had raised $112m by the start of 2016, Rubio only $11m
o Establish a campaign infrastructure
§ Obama’s organisation was superior to Clinton’s in 2008
Analyse the significance of mid-term elections?
• More influential for the House, as all 435 seats are up for election, whereas in the Senate
only 1/3 are
• http://ussmokefilledroom.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/assess-significance-of-midterm-
elections.html
• Influential:
o Act as a form of scrutiny on the president, and is effectively a referendum to hold him
to account during his tenure – despite it being about the members, it is widely
considered a referendum on the president, and often the defining issues of the
president’s tenure define the vote e.g. Democrats lost 13 seats in the House and 9 in
the Senate as a result of Obama’s unpopular healthcare reforms
o They have the ability to change the nature of Congress drastically, and thus the
success of the second half of the president’s tenure
• Not influential:
o Turnouts are often low – only 13% of young voters (18-29) in 2014, which is
especially important for the Democrats, who are very reliant on that vote
o 36.3% turnout in 2014
o Incumbency rate is 95% in the House and 82% in the Senate, and thus the midterms
remain meaningless
Analyse the extent to which incumbents have an advantage over challengers in
congressional elections
• Advantages
o Statistics suggest that incumbents have a considerable advantage challengers
o House incumbent success rate is usually above 90%, with Senate being 80%
o It is not unusual for congressional districts for house members to be uncontested,
whereas the Senate are usually more contested due to the prestige
• Against
o Districts are becoming more competitive and contested as a result of the growing
polarisation of politics, e.g. in 2010 the House incumbency was at a 30 year low of
87%
What is the invisible primary, and why is it so important?
• Definition:
o The period between when a candidate announces they are running for office and the
first primary
o It is more a media phenomenon that establishes the candidate’s platform, personality
and chances, whilst also giving an opportunity for funding to begin
• Why is it so important?
o Momentum and name recognition
§ Both Trump and Clinton established momentum in 2016, with both their poll
numbers rising gradually
o Establishes a political identity
§ Bernie Sanders’ identity was firmly established during the invisible primaries,
whilst the Republicans’ focus on immigration has been evident
o Fundraising chances
§ Clinton had raised $112m by the start of 2016, Rubio only $11m
o Establish a campaign infrastructure
§ Obama’s organisation was superior to Clinton’s in 2008
Analyse the significance of mid-term elections?
• More influential for the House, as all 435 seats are up for election, whereas in the Senate
only 1/3 are
• http://ussmokefilledroom.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/assess-significance-of-midterm-
elections.html
• Influential:
o Act as a form of scrutiny on the president, and is effectively a referendum to hold him
to account during his tenure – despite it being about the members, it is widely
considered a referendum on the president, and often the defining issues of the
president’s tenure define the vote e.g. Democrats lost 13 seats in the House and 9 in
the Senate as a result of Obama’s unpopular healthcare reforms
o They have the ability to change the nature of Congress drastically, and thus the
success of the second half of the president’s tenure
• Not influential:
o Turnouts are often low – only 13% of young voters (18-29) in 2014, which is
especially important for the Democrats, who are very reliant on that vote
o 36.3% turnout in 2014
o Incumbency rate is 95% in the House and 82% in the Senate, and thus the midterms
remain meaningless
Analyse the extent to which incumbents have an advantage over challengers in
congressional elections
• Advantages
o Statistics suggest that incumbents have a considerable advantage challengers
o House incumbent success rate is usually above 90%, with Senate being 80%
o It is not unusual for congressional districts for house members to be uncontested,
whereas the Senate are usually more contested due to the prestige
• Against
o Districts are becoming more competitive and contested as a result of the growing
polarisation of politics, e.g. in 2010 the House incumbency was at a 30 year low of
87%
