KI1.7: Understanding the complex trends and patterns for tectonic disasters helps explain
differential impacts
a. Tectonic disaster trends since 1960 (number of deaths, numbers affected, level of
economic damage) in the context of overall disaster trends (6); research into the
accuracy and reliability of the data to interpret complex trends
Recently, cost is monetary, not lives
Insurance in HICs means that there is less of an impact on individual people. H/ever
insurance companies do suffer
Hydro-met hazards = more common than in 1960s (global warming, deforestation)
Tectonic hazards = constant
Number of hazard events = constant. Number of disasters has increased
Risk and vulnerability are caused by HUMANS
1. Deaths have decreased overall due to better response management and prep- may be
due to improved mobile communications to warn people
2. No of reported disasters increased then stabilised as improvements in data coverage
and the accuracy of databases increased. (used to be that many disasters went
unreported.) More recently, no of reported disasters has fallen, suggesting fewer hazard
events are becoming disasters.
3. No of people affected by disasters is rising as populations grow and more people live in
risky locations.
Deaths from eruptions are now rare- last time an eruption killed >1000 people = Cameron in
1986 (Lake Nyos).
However, numbers affected can be v large because of mass evacuation
b. Tectonic mega-disasters can have regional or even global significance in terms of
economic and human impacts (e.g. 2004 Asian tsunami, 2010 Eyafjallajokull eruption in
Iceland (global interdependence) and 2011 Japanese tsunami (energy policy))
What is a mega-disaster?
- Over 2000 deaths
- Over 200,000 made homeless
- Loss of >5% GDP
- Dependence on external aid for >1 year
2004 Asian tsunami
14 countries in Indian Ocean affected
differential impacts
a. Tectonic disaster trends since 1960 (number of deaths, numbers affected, level of
economic damage) in the context of overall disaster trends (6); research into the
accuracy and reliability of the data to interpret complex trends
Recently, cost is monetary, not lives
Insurance in HICs means that there is less of an impact on individual people. H/ever
insurance companies do suffer
Hydro-met hazards = more common than in 1960s (global warming, deforestation)
Tectonic hazards = constant
Number of hazard events = constant. Number of disasters has increased
Risk and vulnerability are caused by HUMANS
1. Deaths have decreased overall due to better response management and prep- may be
due to improved mobile communications to warn people
2. No of reported disasters increased then stabilised as improvements in data coverage
and the accuracy of databases increased. (used to be that many disasters went
unreported.) More recently, no of reported disasters has fallen, suggesting fewer hazard
events are becoming disasters.
3. No of people affected by disasters is rising as populations grow and more people live in
risky locations.
Deaths from eruptions are now rare- last time an eruption killed >1000 people = Cameron in
1986 (Lake Nyos).
However, numbers affected can be v large because of mass evacuation
b. Tectonic mega-disasters can have regional or even global significance in terms of
economic and human impacts (e.g. 2004 Asian tsunami, 2010 Eyafjallajokull eruption in
Iceland (global interdependence) and 2011 Japanese tsunami (energy policy))
What is a mega-disaster?
- Over 2000 deaths
- Over 200,000 made homeless
- Loss of >5% GDP
- Dependence on external aid for >1 year
2004 Asian tsunami
14 countries in Indian Ocean affected
