Contents
1. Inleiding.............................................................................................................................................5
Ontwikkelingen in de luchtvaartindustrie......................................................................................5
1.1 Classificatie luchtvervoer.............................................................................................................5
Chicago Convention (1944)............................................................................................................5
Passagiersvervoer..........................................................................................................................5
Cargo..............................................................................................................................................5
1.2 Outputindicatoren.......................................................................................................................6
Indicatoren voor personenvervoer (PAX)......................................................................................6
Indicatoren voor cargo...................................................................................................................6
Enkele feitjes..................................................................................................................................6
1.3 Trafiekontwikkelingen.................................................................................................................6
Welke factoren beïnvloeden de trafiekontwikkeling?...................................................................7
Trafiekontwikkeling, historisch......................................................................................................7
1.4 Financials.....................................................................................................................................7
1.5 Uitdagingen in de luchtvaart........................................................................................................7
Rendabiliteit..................................................................................................................................7
Fluctuerende brandstofprijzen......................................................................................................7
Veranderingen in businessmodellen..............................................................................................8
Milieuproblematiek.......................................................................................................................8
Airport en luchtverkeerscongestie.................................................................................................8
2. Institutionele omgeving: deregulering en disruptie...........................................................................9
2.1 Disrupties in de luchtvervoer industrie........................................................................................9
Dimensions of disruption...............................................................................................................9
Technologische disrupties..............................................................................................................9
Geopolitieke disrupties................................................................................................................10
Businessmodel disrupties............................................................................................................13
2.2 Covid-19 & Oekraïne-oorlog......................................................................................................13
The revenue funnel......................................................................................................................13
Impact op (business) reisgedrag..................................................................................................13
2.3 De toekomst (disruptie en groei)...............................................................................................15
(Voorzichtige) voorspellingen voor de luchtvaart........................................................................15
Nieuwe ontwikkelingen...............................................................................................................15
3. Vraaganalyse....................................................................................................................................16
3.1 Determinanten van vraag..........................................................................................................16
1
, 1. Basic airline profit equation.....................................................................................................16
2. Translated into basic economics..............................................................................................16
3. Main determinants of airline demand.....................................................................................16
4. Some empirical results.............................................................................................................17
3.2 Marktsegmentatie.....................................................................................................................17
1. Elementen van marktsegmentatie...........................................................................................17
2. Karakteristieken van business travellers..................................................................................17
3. Karakteristieken van leisure travellers.....................................................................................18
4. Grote vs. kleine carriers...........................................................................................................18
3.3 Prijselasticiteit............................................................................................................................18
1. Reistijd.....................................................................................................................................18
2. Tijdselasticiteit van de vraag....................................................................................................18
3. Air travel vraagsegmenten (4)..................................................................................................18
4. Overbooking............................................................................................................................18
3.4 Airline competition....................................................................................................................19
Airline competitie en marktaandeel............................................................................................19
3.5 Air cargo.....................................................................................................................................19
3.6 Conclusie....................................................................................................................................19
4. Luchthaveninfrastructuur en -management....................................................................................20
4.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................20
4.2 Categorisatie van luchthavens...................................................................................................20
4.3 De grootste luchthavens ter wereld...........................................................................................20
4.4 Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor luchtvaartmaatschappijen..................................................20
Allianties en network travel.........................................................................................................21
4.5 Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor luchthavens.........................................................................21
4.5.1 Luchthavenmodellen..............................................................................................................21
4.6 Luchthavenstrategie..................................................................................................................21
Organisational purpose shareholders’ objectives.......................................................................22
Dimensies van de strategie van een luchthaven (!).....................................................................22
5. Luchtverkeer management..............................................................................................................24
6. Kosten- en aanbodanalyse...............................................................................................................25
6.1 De kostenstructuur van luchtvaartmaatschappijen...................................................................25
Enkele observaties.......................................................................................................................25
Kosten vs. opbrengsten...............................................................................................................25
Factoren van kosten en opbrengsten..........................................................................................26
Vraag naar air transport – prijselasticiteit....................................................................................27
2
, 6.2 Airline operating costs (AOC).....................................................................................................27
1. Aircraft operational costs.........................................................................................................27
2. Ground operating costs............................................................................................................27
3. System operating costs............................................................................................................27
6.3 Kosten & opbrengsten van een luchtvaartmaatschappij...........................................................28
1. Direct operating costs..............................................................................................................28
2. Indirect operating costs...........................................................................................................28
3. Non-operating costs.................................................................................................................28
6.4 Relatie tussen technologie en kosten........................................................................................28
1. Relatie tussen kost/stoel en vliegtuiggrootte...........................................................................28
2. Relatie tussen kosten en stage length......................................................................................29
3. Relatie tussen kost/passagier en load factor...........................................................................29
4. Relatie tussen capaciteit en range...........................................................................................29
6.5 Economies of scale, scope, density............................................................................................29
6.6 Externe kosten en baten van luchtvervoer................................................................................30
Economische baten......................................................................................................................30
Externe kosten.............................................................................................................................30
6.7 Conclusie....................................................................................................................................31
7. Prijszetting en revenue management..............................................................................................32
7.1 Definitie en principes van revenue management......................................................................32
Revenue management.................................................................................................................32
Business conditions die belangrijk zijn voor RM..........................................................................32
7.2 Vraagmanagementbeslissingen.................................................................................................32
1. Structurele beslissingen...........................................................................................................32
2. Prijsbeslissingen.......................................................................................................................33
3. Hoeveelheidsbeslissingen........................................................................................................33
7.3 Simpele statistische capaciteittoewijzingsmodellen..................................................................33
Basisprincipe van capaciteitscontrole..........................................................................................33
Littlewood’s rule..........................................................................................................................34
Fundamentals van zeteltoewijzing...............................................................................................34
7.4 Extensies van Littlewood’s two-class model..............................................................................34
1. Dynamische zeteltoewijzing.....................................................................................................34
2. Verschillende discount fare klassen.........................................................................................35
3. Netwerkcapaciteitscontrole.....................................................................................................35
7.5 Overbooking..............................................................................................................................35
8. Marketing........................................................................................................................................37
3
, 8.1 Stappen in het marketingproces................................................................................................37
1. De klant....................................................................................................................................37
2. De klant: marktsegmentatie.....................................................................................................37
3. Globale marketingstrategieën..................................................................................................37
4. Marketingstrategieën – 4P’s....................................................................................................38
9. Economische impact van luchthavens en MKBA..............................................................................41
10. Air cargo.........................................................................................................................................42
10.1 Belang van vracht voor luchtvaartmaatschappijen en luchthavens.........................................42
Categorieën van luchtvracht........................................................................................................42
Luchtvracht value chain...............................................................................................................42
10.2 De markt..................................................................................................................................42
10.3 Luchtvracht en luchtvaartmaatschappijen...............................................................................43
10.4 Luchtvracht en luchthavens.....................................................................................................43
Waarom zou een luchthaven voor cargo kiezen?........................................................................43
Succesfactoren.............................................................................................................................43
Korte termijn voorspellingen.......................................................................................................44
10.5 Strategie...................................................................................................................................44
Waarom zou een luchtvaartmaatschappij voor cargo kiezen?....................................................45
Capaciteitsbenutting....................................................................................................................45
10.6 Conclusie..................................................................................................................................45
4
1. Inleiding.............................................................................................................................................5
Ontwikkelingen in de luchtvaartindustrie......................................................................................5
1.1 Classificatie luchtvervoer.............................................................................................................5
Chicago Convention (1944)............................................................................................................5
Passagiersvervoer..........................................................................................................................5
Cargo..............................................................................................................................................5
1.2 Outputindicatoren.......................................................................................................................6
Indicatoren voor personenvervoer (PAX)......................................................................................6
Indicatoren voor cargo...................................................................................................................6
Enkele feitjes..................................................................................................................................6
1.3 Trafiekontwikkelingen.................................................................................................................6
Welke factoren beïnvloeden de trafiekontwikkeling?...................................................................7
Trafiekontwikkeling, historisch......................................................................................................7
1.4 Financials.....................................................................................................................................7
1.5 Uitdagingen in de luchtvaart........................................................................................................7
Rendabiliteit..................................................................................................................................7
Fluctuerende brandstofprijzen......................................................................................................7
Veranderingen in businessmodellen..............................................................................................8
Milieuproblematiek.......................................................................................................................8
Airport en luchtverkeerscongestie.................................................................................................8
2. Institutionele omgeving: deregulering en disruptie...........................................................................9
2.1 Disrupties in de luchtvervoer industrie........................................................................................9
Dimensions of disruption...............................................................................................................9
Technologische disrupties..............................................................................................................9
Geopolitieke disrupties................................................................................................................10
Businessmodel disrupties............................................................................................................13
2.2 Covid-19 & Oekraïne-oorlog......................................................................................................13
The revenue funnel......................................................................................................................13
Impact op (business) reisgedrag..................................................................................................13
2.3 De toekomst (disruptie en groei)...............................................................................................15
(Voorzichtige) voorspellingen voor de luchtvaart........................................................................15
Nieuwe ontwikkelingen...............................................................................................................15
3. Vraaganalyse....................................................................................................................................16
3.1 Determinanten van vraag..........................................................................................................16
1
, 1. Basic airline profit equation.....................................................................................................16
2. Translated into basic economics..............................................................................................16
3. Main determinants of airline demand.....................................................................................16
4. Some empirical results.............................................................................................................17
3.2 Marktsegmentatie.....................................................................................................................17
1. Elementen van marktsegmentatie...........................................................................................17
2. Karakteristieken van business travellers..................................................................................17
3. Karakteristieken van leisure travellers.....................................................................................18
4. Grote vs. kleine carriers...........................................................................................................18
3.3 Prijselasticiteit............................................................................................................................18
1. Reistijd.....................................................................................................................................18
2. Tijdselasticiteit van de vraag....................................................................................................18
3. Air travel vraagsegmenten (4)..................................................................................................18
4. Overbooking............................................................................................................................18
3.4 Airline competition....................................................................................................................19
Airline competitie en marktaandeel............................................................................................19
3.5 Air cargo.....................................................................................................................................19
3.6 Conclusie....................................................................................................................................19
4. Luchthaveninfrastructuur en -management....................................................................................20
4.1 Introductie.................................................................................................................................20
4.2 Categorisatie van luchthavens...................................................................................................20
4.3 De grootste luchthavens ter wereld...........................................................................................20
4.4 Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor luchtvaartmaatschappijen..................................................20
Allianties en network travel.........................................................................................................21
4.5 Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor luchthavens.........................................................................21
4.5.1 Luchthavenmodellen..............................................................................................................21
4.6 Luchthavenstrategie..................................................................................................................21
Organisational purpose shareholders’ objectives.......................................................................22
Dimensies van de strategie van een luchthaven (!).....................................................................22
5. Luchtverkeer management..............................................................................................................24
6. Kosten- en aanbodanalyse...............................................................................................................25
6.1 De kostenstructuur van luchtvaartmaatschappijen...................................................................25
Enkele observaties.......................................................................................................................25
Kosten vs. opbrengsten...............................................................................................................25
Factoren van kosten en opbrengsten..........................................................................................26
Vraag naar air transport – prijselasticiteit....................................................................................27
2
, 6.2 Airline operating costs (AOC).....................................................................................................27
1. Aircraft operational costs.........................................................................................................27
2. Ground operating costs............................................................................................................27
3. System operating costs............................................................................................................27
6.3 Kosten & opbrengsten van een luchtvaartmaatschappij...........................................................28
1. Direct operating costs..............................................................................................................28
2. Indirect operating costs...........................................................................................................28
3. Non-operating costs.................................................................................................................28
6.4 Relatie tussen technologie en kosten........................................................................................28
1. Relatie tussen kost/stoel en vliegtuiggrootte...........................................................................28
2. Relatie tussen kosten en stage length......................................................................................29
3. Relatie tussen kost/passagier en load factor...........................................................................29
4. Relatie tussen capaciteit en range...........................................................................................29
6.5 Economies of scale, scope, density............................................................................................29
6.6 Externe kosten en baten van luchtvervoer................................................................................30
Economische baten......................................................................................................................30
Externe kosten.............................................................................................................................30
6.7 Conclusie....................................................................................................................................31
7. Prijszetting en revenue management..............................................................................................32
7.1 Definitie en principes van revenue management......................................................................32
Revenue management.................................................................................................................32
Business conditions die belangrijk zijn voor RM..........................................................................32
7.2 Vraagmanagementbeslissingen.................................................................................................32
1. Structurele beslissingen...........................................................................................................32
2. Prijsbeslissingen.......................................................................................................................33
3. Hoeveelheidsbeslissingen........................................................................................................33
7.3 Simpele statistische capaciteittoewijzingsmodellen..................................................................33
Basisprincipe van capaciteitscontrole..........................................................................................33
Littlewood’s rule..........................................................................................................................34
Fundamentals van zeteltoewijzing...............................................................................................34
7.4 Extensies van Littlewood’s two-class model..............................................................................34
1. Dynamische zeteltoewijzing.....................................................................................................34
2. Verschillende discount fare klassen.........................................................................................35
3. Netwerkcapaciteitscontrole.....................................................................................................35
7.5 Overbooking..............................................................................................................................35
8. Marketing........................................................................................................................................37
3
, 8.1 Stappen in het marketingproces................................................................................................37
1. De klant....................................................................................................................................37
2. De klant: marktsegmentatie.....................................................................................................37
3. Globale marketingstrategieën..................................................................................................37
4. Marketingstrategieën – 4P’s....................................................................................................38
9. Economische impact van luchthavens en MKBA..............................................................................41
10. Air cargo.........................................................................................................................................42
10.1 Belang van vracht voor luchtvaartmaatschappijen en luchthavens.........................................42
Categorieën van luchtvracht........................................................................................................42
Luchtvracht value chain...............................................................................................................42
10.2 De markt..................................................................................................................................42
10.3 Luchtvracht en luchtvaartmaatschappijen...............................................................................43
10.4 Luchtvracht en luchthavens.....................................................................................................43
Waarom zou een luchthaven voor cargo kiezen?........................................................................43
Succesfactoren.............................................................................................................................43
Korte termijn voorspellingen.......................................................................................................44
10.5 Strategie...................................................................................................................................44
Waarom zou een luchtvaartmaatschappij voor cargo kiezen?....................................................45
Capaciteitsbenutting....................................................................................................................45
10.6 Conclusie..................................................................................................................................45
4
