BPO assignment 1 questions + answers Epidemiology (AM_1179)

Name: Yara Langeveld Course: Epidemiology (AM_470707)
Student ID: yla201 Master: MPA
Student number: 2760223 Date: 12/01/2023


BPO assignment 1
Part one: Make a chronological list of cases and deaths throughout the movie (referred to by Don
Francis as the ‘Butcher's Bill’).


Table 1. Chronological list of cases and deaths over time in the U.S. throughout the movie

Month/year Cases Deaths

May/1981 5 2

July/1981 80 26

September/1981 152 60.8 (40%)

October/1981 (Halloween) 160 88

March/1982 285 119

June/1982 405 272

January/1983 951 640

October/1983 2640 1092

April/1984 4123 2937

February/1985 8408 6305


(Note: There were about 230 million residents in the USA around the time of the movie, i.e. total
population)
For the first and last numbers you find:
- Calculate the prevalence for a population of 100,000 people at risk
A. First number: 5 cases and 2 deaths →
5
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 230,000,000
· 100, 000 = 0. 00217...

So, approximately 0.0022 people are expected to have AIDS per 100,000 people.
B. Last number: 8408 cases and 6305 deaths →
8408
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 230,000,000
· 100, 000 = 3. 65...

So, approximately 3.7 people are expected to have AIDS per 100,000 people.


- Calculate the case fatality rate in percentages