Supply chain tsunamis
Samenvatting ‘Supply chain tsunamis: research on low‐probability,
high‐impact disruptions’
We define a supply chain tsunami (Grey Swan) as a rarely occurring supply chain
phenomenon with a sudden and devastating impact on a focal firm, its supply network, or
even the entire industry. We kunnen een grey swan event vergelijken met een black swan
event (= an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately
rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight) en het bullwhip effect:
Frequency Predictability/ Impact Avoidability
Foreseeability
Black Swan 100 years Unforeseeable Massive Understand
and unique damage after the event
Bullwhip effect All the time Destabilizing We can Control it
phenomenon of estimate impact
upstream
amplification
Grey Swan: 5-10 years Long gestation Immediate and Avoidable!
Business period; starts structural
Tsunami on periphery impact
Frequency
Supply chain tsunamis are also relatively rare—hitting every ten or perhaps five years
Foreseeability
The gestation (= the development of something over a period of time) of a supply
chain tsunami can take years. The point of origin of these forces is somewhere on
the periphery (= the outer limits) of the supply chain, far from the point of impact.
Just like an ocean tsunami begins far out at sea with modest amplitude, these signs
are easily overlooked. There’s a need to pay attention to weak signals and actively
“search for the gray swans”.
Impact
There is both an massive immediate impact and a long-term structural impact;
supply chain tsunamis can reshape supply chains in a lasting way.
Avoidability
Supply chain tsunamis are predictable—and even avoidable
Type of supply chain tsunamis
A supply chain tsunami thus originates outside the scope of managerial attention, in the
periphery of the supply chain. The part of the supply chain periphery where shockwaves first
appear determines the type of supply chain tsunami, as the figure below shows.
Demand bubble tsunami
Originates with the focal firm’s customers and even with their customers (dus de
klanten van je klanten). Dus downstream.
Schedule pressure tsunami
Samenvatting ‘Supply chain tsunamis: research on low‐probability,
high‐impact disruptions’
We define a supply chain tsunami (Grey Swan) as a rarely occurring supply chain
phenomenon with a sudden and devastating impact on a focal firm, its supply network, or
even the entire industry. We kunnen een grey swan event vergelijken met een black swan
event (= an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately
rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight) en het bullwhip effect:
Frequency Predictability/ Impact Avoidability
Foreseeability
Black Swan 100 years Unforeseeable Massive Understand
and unique damage after the event
Bullwhip effect All the time Destabilizing We can Control it
phenomenon of estimate impact
upstream
amplification
Grey Swan: 5-10 years Long gestation Immediate and Avoidable!
Business period; starts structural
Tsunami on periphery impact
Frequency
Supply chain tsunamis are also relatively rare—hitting every ten or perhaps five years
Foreseeability
The gestation (= the development of something over a period of time) of a supply
chain tsunami can take years. The point of origin of these forces is somewhere on
the periphery (= the outer limits) of the supply chain, far from the point of impact.
Just like an ocean tsunami begins far out at sea with modest amplitude, these signs
are easily overlooked. There’s a need to pay attention to weak signals and actively
“search for the gray swans”.
Impact
There is both an massive immediate impact and a long-term structural impact;
supply chain tsunamis can reshape supply chains in a lasting way.
Avoidability
Supply chain tsunamis are predictable—and even avoidable
Type of supply chain tsunamis
A supply chain tsunami thus originates outside the scope of managerial attention, in the
periphery of the supply chain. The part of the supply chain periphery where shockwaves first
appear determines the type of supply chain tsunami, as the figure below shows.
Demand bubble tsunami
Originates with the focal firm’s customers and even with their customers (dus de
klanten van je klanten). Dus downstream.
Schedule pressure tsunami
