Table of Contents
MODULE 0. INLEIDING ..................................................................................................................................... 7
1.1 WHAT MACROECONOMICS STUDY .................................................................................................................. 7
1.2 HOW ECONOMISTS THINK.................................................................................................................................... 7
Theory as model building ............................................................................................................................... 7
The use of multiple models ............................................................................................................................ 8
Prices: flexible versus sticky ............................................................................................................................ 8
Microeconomic thinking and macroeconomic models ................................................................................... 9
Een korte geschiedenis van het macro-economisch denken .......................................................................... 9
CHAPTER 2. THE DATA OF MACROECONOMICS .............................................................................................. 14
2.1 MEASURING THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT .............................................................. 14
Income, expenditure, and the circular flow .................................................................................................. 14
Rules for computing GDP ............................................................................................................................. 14
Real GDP vs nominal GDP ............................................................................................................................ 14
The GDP deflator .......................................................................................................................................... 14
Chain-weighted measures of real GDP ........................................................................................................ 14
The components of expenditure ................................................................................................................... 14
Other measures and its components ........................................................................................................... 14
Seasonal adjustment .................................................................................................................................... 14
2.2 MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING: THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ................................................................................ 14
The price of a basket of goods ..................................................................................................................... 14
How the CPI compare with the GDP and the PCE deflators ......................................................................... 14
Does CPI overstate inflation ......................................................................................................................... 14
2.3 MEASURING JOBLESSNESS: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ............................................................................................ 14
The household survey ................................................................................................................................... 14
The establishment survey ............................................................................................................................. 14
2.4 CONCLUSION: FROM STATISTICS TO MODELS .......................................................................................................... 14
MODULE 1. NATIONAAL INKOMEN ................................................................................................................ 15
3.1 WHAT DETERMINES THE TOTAL PRODUCTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES ....................................................................... 15
The factors of production ............................................................................................................................. 15
The production function ............................................................................................................................... 15
The supply of goods and services ................................................................................................................. 15
3.2 HOW IS THE NATIONAL INCOME DISTRIBUTED TO THE FACTORS OF PRODUCTION ........................................................... 15
Empirische meting ........................................................................................................................................ 16
Theoretische modellen ................................................................................................................................. 16
De vraag naar goederen en diensten ........................................................................................................... 17
3.3 THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR ....................................................................................................... 17
A falling labor share ..................................................................................................................................... 17
The race between education and technology .............................................................................................. 17
Globalization ................................................................................................................................................ 17
The evolving role of marriage ...................................................................................................................... 17
The policy questions ..................................................................................................................................... 17
4.1 WHAT DETERMINES THE DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES ................................................................................... 19
Consumption ................................................................................................................................................ 19
Investment ................................................................................................................................................... 19
Government purchases ................................................................................................................................ 19
4.2 WHAT BRINGS THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES INTO EQUILIBRIUM?............................................... 19
Equilibrium in the market for goods and services: the supply of and demand for the economy’s output ... 19
Equilibrium in financial markets: the supply of and demand for loanable funds ......................................... 19
Changes in saving: the effects of fiscal policy .............................................................................................. 19
Changes in investment demand ................................................................................................................... 19
1
,MODULE 2. HET MONETAIRE SYSTEEM .......................................................................................................... 20
1. WAT IS GELD? ................................................................................................................................................... 20
2. GELDCREATIE – FRACTIONEEL RESERVEBANKIEREN .................................................................................................... 20
Endogene geldcreatie................................................................................................................................... 20
Beperking 1: liquiditeitsbeperkingen............................................................................................................ 22
Beperking 2: kapitaalbeperkingen ............................................................................................................... 22
De geldmultiplicator..................................................................................................................................... 22
Controle door de centrale bank .................................................................................................................... 23
3. FINANCIËLE BELEIDSSCHOKKEN ............................................................................................................................. 24
Voorbeeld 1: soepelere liquiditeitsbeperking (𝑟𝑟 ↓) .................................................................................... 25
Voorbeeld 2: uitbreiding van bankreserves (𝑅 ↑) via leningen LB ................................................................ 26
4. DE GROTE DEPRESSIE ......................................................................................................................................... 26
Chartaal geld-depositoverhouding steeg aanzienlijk (cr ↑) .......................................................................... 27
Reserve-depositoverhoudingen stegen (rr ↑) ............................................................................................... 27
Beleidsreacties na de Grote Depressie ......................................................................................................... 28
Beleidshervorming 1: depositogarantiestelsel ............................................................................................. 28
Beleidshervorming 2: CB als ‘Lender of last resort’ ...................................................................................... 28
5. DE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS .............................................................................................................................. 28
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 29
Het monetaire system .................................................................................................................................. 29
Financial crisis .............................................................................................................................................. 29
Theoretische kader ....................................................................................................................................... 29
MODULE 3. INFLATIE ...................................................................................................................................... 30
1. WAT IS INFLATIE?............................................................................................................................................... 30
2. NOMINALE EN REËLE RENTES................................................................................................................................ 30
3. WELK INFLATIENIVEAU IS WENSELIJK? .................................................................................................................... 31
1. Hoge verwachte inflatie is onwenselijk .................................................................................................... 32
2. Onverwachte inflatie is onwenselijk ......................................................................................................... 32
4. WAT DRIJFT INFLATIE? ........................................................................................................................................ 33
Wat creëert deze schommelingen doorheen de tijd? ................................................................................... 35
Theorie 1: Phillipscurve ................................................................................................................................ 35
Theorie 2: Kwantiteitstheorie van geld (jaren 1970) .................................................................................... 36
5. HYPERINFLATIE-EPISODES .................................................................................................................................... 37
De gemeenschappelijke oorzaak .................................................................................................................. 38
Onafhankelijkheid van centrale banken ....................................................................................................... 39
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 39
MODULE 4. OPEN ECONOMIE ........................................................................................................................ 39
1. INLEIDING ........................................................................................................................................................ 39
Global imbalances ........................................................................................................................................ 40
Amerikaanse handelsoorlog (2024 - …) ....................................................................................................... 42
2. INTERNATIONALE STROMEN VAN GOEDEREN EN KAPITAAL........................................................................................... 43
Afleiding en fundamentele identiteit............................................................................................................ 43
De link tussen handel en kapitaalstromen ................................................................................................... 43
De VS als netto-importeur van kapitaal tov China ....................................................................................... 44
3. WISSELKOERSEN ................................................................................................................................................ 44
Nominale wisselkoersen (E) ......................................................................................................................... 45
Reële wisselkoersen (𝜀) ................................................................................................................................ 45
4. EEN EENVOUDIG MODEL: KLEINE OPEN ECONOMIE ................................................................................................... 46
Wat gebeurt er met NX? .............................................................................................................................. 47
Handelsoverschot: NX > 0 en S > I ................................................................................................................ 48
Handelstekort: NX < 0 en S < I ...................................................................................................................... 48
Handel in evenwicht: NX = 0 en S = I ............................................................................................................ 48
4 macro-economische schokken .................................................................................................................. 49
Casestudy: onevenwichten in de eurozone .................................................................................................. 52
2
, 5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 53
MODULE 5. DE ARBEIDSMARKT ..................................................................................................................... 54
1. OPSPLITSING VAN DE BEROEPSBEVOLKING............................................................................................................... 54
Werkloosheid versus non-participatie .......................................................................................................... 54
2. NATUURLIJKE EN CONJUNCTURELE WERKLOOSHEID ................................................................................................... 55
Componenten van natuurlijke werkloosheid ................................................................................................ 56
Structurele werkloosheid ............................................................................................................................. 56
Frictiewerkloosheid ...................................................................................................................................... 58
Conjuncturele werkloosheid ......................................................................................................................... 58
3. WIE ZIJN DE STRUCTUREEL WERKLOZEN? ................................................................................................................ 58
4. ARBEIDSMARKTEN IN DE VS VERSUS EUROPA .......................................................................................................... 59
Hypothese 1: Lagere gewerkte uren per werkende persoon in Europa ........................................................ 60
Hypothese 2: Hogere non-participatie in Europa ......................................................................................... 61
Hypothese 3: hogere structurele werkloosheid in Europa ........................................................................... 63
Samenvatting van de 3 hypothesen ............................................................................................................. 63
De noordse landen als referentiemodel ....................................................................................................... 64
5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 64
MODULE 6. BASIS SOLOW-MODEL – KAPITAALACCUMULATIE EN GROEI ....................................................... 65
1. EMPIRISCH FEIT 1 .............................................................................................................................................. 65
Verschillen in bbp per capita tussen landen ................................................................................................. 65
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 66
Onderzoeksvraag ......................................................................................................................................... 66
2. EMPIRISCH FEIT 2 .............................................................................................................................................. 67
Bbp per capita-groeipercentages tussen landen .......................................................................................... 67
Landen met de hoogste groeipercentages ................................................................................................... 67
Landen met de laagste groeipercentages .................................................................................................... 68
Geselecteerde landen ................................................................................................................................... 68
Onderzoeksvraag ......................................................................................................................................... 68
3. BBP PER CAPITA VS ANDERE MAATSTAVEN .............................................................................................................. 68
4. HET BASIS SOLOW-MODEL .................................................................................................................................. 71
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 71
Vraagzijde .................................................................................................................................................... 72
Steady – state ............................................................................................................................................... 74
5. VERSCHILLEN IN BBP PER CAPITA-NIVEAUS............................................................................................................... 75
6. KERNMECHANISME ............................................................................................................................................ 76
Empirische ondersteuning ............................................................................................................................ 77
7. TUSSENSTAND ................................................................................................................................................... 78
Wat model verklaart .................................................................................................................................... 78
Beperkingen en uitbreidingen ...................................................................................................................... 78
8. GULDEN REGEL.................................................................................................................................................. 78
Steady state-consumptie per capita c* ........................................................................................................ 79
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 79
Gulden regel-steady state bereiken.............................................................................................................. 80
9. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 80
MODULE 7. GEAVANCEERD SOLOW-MODEL – BEVOLKINGSGROEI EN TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG (H10)
...................................................................................................................................................................... 81
BASIS SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................................................ 81
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 81
Endogene en exogene variabelen ................................................................................................................ 81
1. BEVOLKINGSGROEI ............................................................................................................................................. 81
Nieuwe kapitaalaccumulatievergelijking ..................................................................................................... 81
Afleiding van de steady state ....................................................................................................................... 82
Implicaties voor de onderzoeksvragen ......................................................................................................... 82
Bbp per capita niveaus ................................................................................................................................. 83
3
, Beleidsimplicaties ......................................................................................................................................... 84
Dalende fertiliteitsvoeten ............................................................................................................................. 84
Bevolkingsprojecties..................................................................................................................................... 85
2. TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG ......................................................................................................................... 86
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 86
Vraagzijde .................................................................................................................................................... 87
Steady state.................................................................................................................................................. 87
Implicaties voor de onderzoeksvragen ......................................................................................................... 88
Bbp per capita-niveaus................................................................................................................................. 88
3. OVERZICHT: GEAVANCEERD SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................ 90
Groeivoeten in de steady state ..................................................................................................................... 90
Drijvende krachten achter bbp per capita-niveaus en -groeivoeten ............................................................ 90
Toepassingen: schokken in de exogene variabelen ...................................................................................... 91
4. UITBREIDINGEN VAN HET SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................... 92
Endogenisering van arbeidsefficiëntie ......................................................................................................... 92
Verklaring 1. Technologie ............................................................................................................................. 93
Verklaring 2. Menselijk kapitaal ................................................................................................................... 93
Verklaring 3. Instituties ................................................................................................................................ 94
Verklaring 4. Energie en klimaatverandering ............................................................................................... 95
5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 95
MODULE 8. INLEIDING TOT MACRO-ECONOMISCHE FLUCTUATIES (H12) ....................................................... 96
1. LANGE TERMIJN VERSUS KORTE TERMIJN ................................................................................................................. 96
Langetermijngroei ........................................................................................................................................ 96
Kortetermijnfluctuaties ................................................................................................................................ 96
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 96
2. CONJUNCTUURCYCLI .......................................................................................................................................... 97
Reële bbp-groei ............................................................................................................................................ 97
Procyclische, anticyclische en acyclische variabelen .................................................................................... 97
Werkloosheidsgraad u ................................................................................................................................. 98
Reële consumptie C ...................................................................................................................................... 98
Reële bruto private investeringen I .............................................................................................................. 99
Gewerkte uren h ........................................................................................................................................... 99
Reële lonen ................................................................................................................................................... 99
Reële rente r ............................................................................................................................................... 100
Inflatie 𝜋 ..................................................................................................................................................... 100
Overzicht .................................................................................................................................................... 100
3. AD-AS-KADER ................................................................................................................................................ 101
Inleiding ..................................................................................................................................................... 101
AS-curve ..................................................................................................................................................... 101
AD-curve..................................................................................................................................................... 103
Macro-economisch evenwicht ................................................................................................................... 105
4. SCHOKKEN BINNEN HET AD-AS-KADER ................................................................................................................ 107
Vraagschokken ........................................................................................................................................... 108
Aanbodschokken ........................................................................................................................................ 108
5. DE ROL VAN MONETAIR EN BUDGETTAIR BELEID ...................................................................................................... 109
Doelstellingen............................................................................................................................................. 109
Afwegingen bij aanbodschokken ............................................................................................................... 110
Instrumenten .............................................................................................................................................. 111
Effectiviteit ................................................................................................................................................. 112
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES .............................................................................................................................. 112
MODULE 9. GEAGGREGEERDE VRAAG I: IS-LM-MODEL (H13)....................................................................... 113
1. INLEIDING ...................................................................................................................................................... 113
2. KEYNESIAANSE CROSS THEORY ............................................................................................................................ 113
Kernmechanisme ........................................................................................................................................ 113
Geplande bestedingen (PE) ........................................................................................................................ 114
4
MODULE 0. INLEIDING ..................................................................................................................................... 7
1.1 WHAT MACROECONOMICS STUDY .................................................................................................................. 7
1.2 HOW ECONOMISTS THINK.................................................................................................................................... 7
Theory as model building ............................................................................................................................... 7
The use of multiple models ............................................................................................................................ 8
Prices: flexible versus sticky ............................................................................................................................ 8
Microeconomic thinking and macroeconomic models ................................................................................... 9
Een korte geschiedenis van het macro-economisch denken .......................................................................... 9
CHAPTER 2. THE DATA OF MACROECONOMICS .............................................................................................. 14
2.1 MEASURING THE VALUE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT .............................................................. 14
Income, expenditure, and the circular flow .................................................................................................. 14
Rules for computing GDP ............................................................................................................................. 14
Real GDP vs nominal GDP ............................................................................................................................ 14
The GDP deflator .......................................................................................................................................... 14
Chain-weighted measures of real GDP ........................................................................................................ 14
The components of expenditure ................................................................................................................... 14
Other measures and its components ........................................................................................................... 14
Seasonal adjustment .................................................................................................................................... 14
2.2 MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING: THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ................................................................................ 14
The price of a basket of goods ..................................................................................................................... 14
How the CPI compare with the GDP and the PCE deflators ......................................................................... 14
Does CPI overstate inflation ......................................................................................................................... 14
2.3 MEASURING JOBLESSNESS: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ............................................................................................ 14
The household survey ................................................................................................................................... 14
The establishment survey ............................................................................................................................. 14
2.4 CONCLUSION: FROM STATISTICS TO MODELS .......................................................................................................... 14
MODULE 1. NATIONAAL INKOMEN ................................................................................................................ 15
3.1 WHAT DETERMINES THE TOTAL PRODUCTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES ....................................................................... 15
The factors of production ............................................................................................................................. 15
The production function ............................................................................................................................... 15
The supply of goods and services ................................................................................................................. 15
3.2 HOW IS THE NATIONAL INCOME DISTRIBUTED TO THE FACTORS OF PRODUCTION ........................................................... 15
Empirische meting ........................................................................................................................................ 16
Theoretische modellen ................................................................................................................................. 16
De vraag naar goederen en diensten ........................................................................................................... 17
3.3 THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR ....................................................................................................... 17
A falling labor share ..................................................................................................................................... 17
The race between education and technology .............................................................................................. 17
Globalization ................................................................................................................................................ 17
The evolving role of marriage ...................................................................................................................... 17
The policy questions ..................................................................................................................................... 17
4.1 WHAT DETERMINES THE DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES ................................................................................... 19
Consumption ................................................................................................................................................ 19
Investment ................................................................................................................................................... 19
Government purchases ................................................................................................................................ 19
4.2 WHAT BRINGS THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES INTO EQUILIBRIUM?............................................... 19
Equilibrium in the market for goods and services: the supply of and demand for the economy’s output ... 19
Equilibrium in financial markets: the supply of and demand for loanable funds ......................................... 19
Changes in saving: the effects of fiscal policy .............................................................................................. 19
Changes in investment demand ................................................................................................................... 19
1
,MODULE 2. HET MONETAIRE SYSTEEM .......................................................................................................... 20
1. WAT IS GELD? ................................................................................................................................................... 20
2. GELDCREATIE – FRACTIONEEL RESERVEBANKIEREN .................................................................................................... 20
Endogene geldcreatie................................................................................................................................... 20
Beperking 1: liquiditeitsbeperkingen............................................................................................................ 22
Beperking 2: kapitaalbeperkingen ............................................................................................................... 22
De geldmultiplicator..................................................................................................................................... 22
Controle door de centrale bank .................................................................................................................... 23
3. FINANCIËLE BELEIDSSCHOKKEN ............................................................................................................................. 24
Voorbeeld 1: soepelere liquiditeitsbeperking (𝑟𝑟 ↓) .................................................................................... 25
Voorbeeld 2: uitbreiding van bankreserves (𝑅 ↑) via leningen LB ................................................................ 26
4. DE GROTE DEPRESSIE ......................................................................................................................................... 26
Chartaal geld-depositoverhouding steeg aanzienlijk (cr ↑) .......................................................................... 27
Reserve-depositoverhoudingen stegen (rr ↑) ............................................................................................... 27
Beleidsreacties na de Grote Depressie ......................................................................................................... 28
Beleidshervorming 1: depositogarantiestelsel ............................................................................................. 28
Beleidshervorming 2: CB als ‘Lender of last resort’ ...................................................................................... 28
5. DE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS .............................................................................................................................. 28
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 29
Het monetaire system .................................................................................................................................. 29
Financial crisis .............................................................................................................................................. 29
Theoretische kader ....................................................................................................................................... 29
MODULE 3. INFLATIE ...................................................................................................................................... 30
1. WAT IS INFLATIE?............................................................................................................................................... 30
2. NOMINALE EN REËLE RENTES................................................................................................................................ 30
3. WELK INFLATIENIVEAU IS WENSELIJK? .................................................................................................................... 31
1. Hoge verwachte inflatie is onwenselijk .................................................................................................... 32
2. Onverwachte inflatie is onwenselijk ......................................................................................................... 32
4. WAT DRIJFT INFLATIE? ........................................................................................................................................ 33
Wat creëert deze schommelingen doorheen de tijd? ................................................................................... 35
Theorie 1: Phillipscurve ................................................................................................................................ 35
Theorie 2: Kwantiteitstheorie van geld (jaren 1970) .................................................................................... 36
5. HYPERINFLATIE-EPISODES .................................................................................................................................... 37
De gemeenschappelijke oorzaak .................................................................................................................. 38
Onafhankelijkheid van centrale banken ....................................................................................................... 39
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 39
MODULE 4. OPEN ECONOMIE ........................................................................................................................ 39
1. INLEIDING ........................................................................................................................................................ 39
Global imbalances ........................................................................................................................................ 40
Amerikaanse handelsoorlog (2024 - …) ....................................................................................................... 42
2. INTERNATIONALE STROMEN VAN GOEDEREN EN KAPITAAL........................................................................................... 43
Afleiding en fundamentele identiteit............................................................................................................ 43
De link tussen handel en kapitaalstromen ................................................................................................... 43
De VS als netto-importeur van kapitaal tov China ....................................................................................... 44
3. WISSELKOERSEN ................................................................................................................................................ 44
Nominale wisselkoersen (E) ......................................................................................................................... 45
Reële wisselkoersen (𝜀) ................................................................................................................................ 45
4. EEN EENVOUDIG MODEL: KLEINE OPEN ECONOMIE ................................................................................................... 46
Wat gebeurt er met NX? .............................................................................................................................. 47
Handelsoverschot: NX > 0 en S > I ................................................................................................................ 48
Handelstekort: NX < 0 en S < I ...................................................................................................................... 48
Handel in evenwicht: NX = 0 en S = I ............................................................................................................ 48
4 macro-economische schokken .................................................................................................................. 49
Casestudy: onevenwichten in de eurozone .................................................................................................. 52
2
, 5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 53
MODULE 5. DE ARBEIDSMARKT ..................................................................................................................... 54
1. OPSPLITSING VAN DE BEROEPSBEVOLKING............................................................................................................... 54
Werkloosheid versus non-participatie .......................................................................................................... 54
2. NATUURLIJKE EN CONJUNCTURELE WERKLOOSHEID ................................................................................................... 55
Componenten van natuurlijke werkloosheid ................................................................................................ 56
Structurele werkloosheid ............................................................................................................................. 56
Frictiewerkloosheid ...................................................................................................................................... 58
Conjuncturele werkloosheid ......................................................................................................................... 58
3. WIE ZIJN DE STRUCTUREEL WERKLOZEN? ................................................................................................................ 58
4. ARBEIDSMARKTEN IN DE VS VERSUS EUROPA .......................................................................................................... 59
Hypothese 1: Lagere gewerkte uren per werkende persoon in Europa ........................................................ 60
Hypothese 2: Hogere non-participatie in Europa ......................................................................................... 61
Hypothese 3: hogere structurele werkloosheid in Europa ........................................................................... 63
Samenvatting van de 3 hypothesen ............................................................................................................. 63
De noordse landen als referentiemodel ....................................................................................................... 64
5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 64
MODULE 6. BASIS SOLOW-MODEL – KAPITAALACCUMULATIE EN GROEI ....................................................... 65
1. EMPIRISCH FEIT 1 .............................................................................................................................................. 65
Verschillen in bbp per capita tussen landen ................................................................................................. 65
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 66
Onderzoeksvraag ......................................................................................................................................... 66
2. EMPIRISCH FEIT 2 .............................................................................................................................................. 67
Bbp per capita-groeipercentages tussen landen .......................................................................................... 67
Landen met de hoogste groeipercentages ................................................................................................... 67
Landen met de laagste groeipercentages .................................................................................................... 68
Geselecteerde landen ................................................................................................................................... 68
Onderzoeksvraag ......................................................................................................................................... 68
3. BBP PER CAPITA VS ANDERE MAATSTAVEN .............................................................................................................. 68
4. HET BASIS SOLOW-MODEL .................................................................................................................................. 71
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 71
Vraagzijde .................................................................................................................................................... 72
Steady – state ............................................................................................................................................... 74
5. VERSCHILLEN IN BBP PER CAPITA-NIVEAUS............................................................................................................... 75
6. KERNMECHANISME ............................................................................................................................................ 76
Empirische ondersteuning ............................................................................................................................ 77
7. TUSSENSTAND ................................................................................................................................................... 78
Wat model verklaart .................................................................................................................................... 78
Beperkingen en uitbreidingen ...................................................................................................................... 78
8. GULDEN REGEL.................................................................................................................................................. 78
Steady state-consumptie per capita c* ........................................................................................................ 79
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 79
Gulden regel-steady state bereiken.............................................................................................................. 80
9. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 80
MODULE 7. GEAVANCEERD SOLOW-MODEL – BEVOLKINGSGROEI EN TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG (H10)
...................................................................................................................................................................... 81
BASIS SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................................................ 81
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 81
Endogene en exogene variabelen ................................................................................................................ 81
1. BEVOLKINGSGROEI ............................................................................................................................................. 81
Nieuwe kapitaalaccumulatievergelijking ..................................................................................................... 81
Afleiding van de steady state ....................................................................................................................... 82
Implicaties voor de onderzoeksvragen ......................................................................................................... 82
Bbp per capita niveaus ................................................................................................................................. 83
3
, Beleidsimplicaties ......................................................................................................................................... 84
Dalende fertiliteitsvoeten ............................................................................................................................. 84
Bevolkingsprojecties..................................................................................................................................... 85
2. TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG ......................................................................................................................... 86
Aanbodzijde ................................................................................................................................................. 86
Vraagzijde .................................................................................................................................................... 87
Steady state.................................................................................................................................................. 87
Implicaties voor de onderzoeksvragen ......................................................................................................... 88
Bbp per capita-niveaus................................................................................................................................. 88
3. OVERZICHT: GEAVANCEERD SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................ 90
Groeivoeten in de steady state ..................................................................................................................... 90
Drijvende krachten achter bbp per capita-niveaus en -groeivoeten ............................................................ 90
Toepassingen: schokken in de exogene variabelen ...................................................................................... 91
4. UITBREIDINGEN VAN HET SOLOW-MODEL ............................................................................................................... 92
Endogenisering van arbeidsefficiëntie ......................................................................................................... 92
Verklaring 1. Technologie ............................................................................................................................. 93
Verklaring 2. Menselijk kapitaal ................................................................................................................... 93
Verklaring 3. Instituties ................................................................................................................................ 94
Verklaring 4. Energie en klimaatverandering ............................................................................................... 95
5. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES ................................................................................................................................ 95
MODULE 8. INLEIDING TOT MACRO-ECONOMISCHE FLUCTUATIES (H12) ....................................................... 96
1. LANGE TERMIJN VERSUS KORTE TERMIJN ................................................................................................................. 96
Langetermijngroei ........................................................................................................................................ 96
Kortetermijnfluctuaties ................................................................................................................................ 96
Samenvatting ............................................................................................................................................... 96
2. CONJUNCTUURCYCLI .......................................................................................................................................... 97
Reële bbp-groei ............................................................................................................................................ 97
Procyclische, anticyclische en acyclische variabelen .................................................................................... 97
Werkloosheidsgraad u ................................................................................................................................. 98
Reële consumptie C ...................................................................................................................................... 98
Reële bruto private investeringen I .............................................................................................................. 99
Gewerkte uren h ........................................................................................................................................... 99
Reële lonen ................................................................................................................................................... 99
Reële rente r ............................................................................................................................................... 100
Inflatie 𝜋 ..................................................................................................................................................... 100
Overzicht .................................................................................................................................................... 100
3. AD-AS-KADER ................................................................................................................................................ 101
Inleiding ..................................................................................................................................................... 101
AS-curve ..................................................................................................................................................... 101
AD-curve..................................................................................................................................................... 103
Macro-economisch evenwicht ................................................................................................................... 105
4. SCHOKKEN BINNEN HET AD-AS-KADER ................................................................................................................ 107
Vraagschokken ........................................................................................................................................... 108
Aanbodschokken ........................................................................................................................................ 108
5. DE ROL VAN MONETAIR EN BUDGETTAIR BELEID ...................................................................................................... 109
Doelstellingen............................................................................................................................................. 109
Afwegingen bij aanbodschokken ............................................................................................................... 110
Instrumenten .............................................................................................................................................. 111
Effectiviteit ................................................................................................................................................. 112
6. BELANGRIJKSTE CONCLUSIES .............................................................................................................................. 112
MODULE 9. GEAGGREGEERDE VRAAG I: IS-LM-MODEL (H13)....................................................................... 113
1. INLEIDING ...................................................................................................................................................... 113
2. KEYNESIAANSE CROSS THEORY ............................................................................................................................ 113
Kernmechanisme ........................................................................................................................................ 113
Geplande bestedingen (PE) ........................................................................................................................ 114
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