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Which technique is most appropriate for estimating the expected value
of a performance measure when a simulation is run repeatedly under
identical input assumptions?
A. Replication
B. Calibration
C. Deterministic optimization
D. Dimensional analysis
Answer: A. Replication
Rationale: Independent replications are a fundamental simulation
technique for estimating stochastic performance measures. Each
replication uses an independent random-number stream or seed and
produces an observation of the desired performance measure. These
observations can then be used to estimate the mean and its sampling
variability.
In a terminating simulation, which characteristic distinguishes the
model from a steady-state simulation?
,A. The simulation contains no random variables
B. The simulation has a well-defined initial and terminal condition
C. The simulation must reach equilibrium
D. The simulation cannot contain queues
Answer: B. The simulation has a well-defined initial and terminal
condition
Rationale: Terminating simulations model systems with a natural
beginning and ending, such as a day's operations, a production run, or
a military mission. Steady-state simulations instead seek long-run
performance after transient effects have diminished.
Why is a warm-up period commonly used in steady-state simulation?
A. To increase the number of random variables
B. To eliminate the need for replication
C. To reduce the influence of initialization bias
D. To guarantee normally distributed observations
Answer: C. To reduce the influence of initialization bias
Rationale: A simulation frequently begins in an artificial state, such as
an empty queue. Early observations can therefore differ substantially
from long-run behavior. A warm-up period allows the system to move
toward representative operating conditions before measurements are
collected.
,Which statistical distribution is commonly used to construct a
confidence interval for a population mean when the population
variance is unknown and the sample size is relatively small?
A. Uniform distribution
B. Student's t distribution
C. Exponential distribution
D. Poisson distribution
Answer: B. Student's t distribution
Rationale: When the population variance is unknown and estimated
from the sample, the Student's t distribution is generally used for
inference about a mean, particularly for smaller samples. The t
distribution has heavier tails than the normal distribution to account
for additional uncertainty from estimating the variance.
A simulation produces independent observations with sample mean 84
and sample standard deviation 12 from 36 replications. What is the
approximate standard error of the sample mean?
A. 0.33
B. 2
C. 12
D. 72
Answer: B. 2
Rationale: The standard error is approximately
SE = s / √n = 12 / √36 = = 2.
, Thus, the estimated sampling variability of the sample mean is 2.
If the confidence level is increased from 90% to 99% while all other
factors remain unchanged, what generally happens to the confidence
interval?
A. It becomes narrower
B. It becomes wider
C. Its midpoint changes automatically
D. The sample variance becomes zero
Answer: B. It becomes wider
Rationale: Higher confidence requires a larger critical value.
Consequently, the margin of error increases and the resulting
confidence interval becomes wider.
Which statement best describes a confidence interval for a simulation
performance measure?
A. It guarantees that every future observation falls within the interval
B. It provides a range used to quantify uncertainty in the estimated
mean
C. It eliminates simulation variability
D. It gives the exact population mean
Answer: B. It provides a range used to quantify uncertainty in the
estimated mean