RN Comprehensive Predictor® 2013
and NCLEX-RN® Readiness
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor® 2013 is twofold. The first purpose is
to provide students and educators with a numeric indication of the likelihood of passing
the NCLEX-RN® at the student’s current level of readiness. The second purpose is to guide
remediation efforts based on the exam content missed. This is achieved by providing a listing of
topics related to missed items in the individual and group score reports. To provide the numeric
indication of NCLEX-RN readiness, ATI engages in an extensive validation process involving a
statistical comparison of student performance on the RN Comprehensive Predictor 2013 and
actual NCLEX-RN first attempt pass/fail status.
Table 1 displays the results of this process. Each student’s individual score (expressed as a
percentage correct) is associated with a probability of passing the NCLEX-RN. The relationship
between Predictor scores and probability of passing rests on these assumptions.
1. The students taking the assessment are at or near completion of an RN nursing program and are
about to sit for the NCLEX-RN. Students with a significant amount of instruction to receive
before taking the NCLEX-RN can be expected to underperform on the Predictor.
2. The probability of passing refers to students’ first NCLEX-RN attempt after taking the Predictor.
After repeated attempts, it is expected that most students will eventually pass, but these
attempts are outside the realm of the Predictor.
3. The typical expectations of students taking a standardized test are met (e.g., students are
motivated to perform, no cheating has occurred, test is given under standardized
conditions in a proctored environment).
To the extent that these assumptions are not met, the validity of the prediction and of the test
scores themselves can be in question.
© 2014 Assessment Technologies Institute ®, Inc. 1
, RN Comprehensive Predictor® 2013
and NCLEX-RN® Readiness
EXPECTANCY TABLE OF INDIVIDUAL PERCENTAGE CORRECT SCORE
Table 1
AND PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF PASSING NCLEX-RN
RN COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTOR PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF PASSING
2013 INDIVIDUAL SCORE THE NCLEX-RN
80.0% to 100.0% 99%
77.3% to 79.3% 98%
74.0% to 76.7% 96% to 97%
72.0% to 73.3% 94% to 95%
70.0% to 71.3% 91% to 93%
68.7% to 69.3% 89% to 90%
66.7% to 68.0% 84% to 87%
65.3% to 66.0% 80% to 82%
63.3% to 64.7% 73% to 78%
60.0% to 62.7% 59% to 71%
54.0% to 59.3% 31% to 56%
0.0% to 53.3% 1% to 28%
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF PASSING NCLEX-RN
EXPECTANCY TABLE
SAMPLE
The data for the expectancy table (Table 1) were collected during the norming phase of the
Predictor development. In the spring of 2013, ATI client institutions were asked if they would be
willing to administer the assessment to their RN students who were near graduation and expected
to sit for the NCLEX-RN in the summer of 2013. One hundred and three (103) RN nursing
programs volunteered and provided a total of 3,142 students who sat for the RN Comprehensive
Predictor. The original norms (means and percentile ranks) for the assessment were set based
on this sample of 3,142. These norms are initially reset based on students who have taken the
Predictor under live conditions after a sufficient sample has been accumulated.
All 3,142 students taking the assessment were asked if they would be willing to allow their
instructors to share their NCLEX-RN first attempt results with ATI. ATI only asked instructors for
the NCLEX-RN results of students who specifically agreed to provide them. Complete data from
1,642 students were obtained for the expectancy table development. The reported NCLEX-RN pass
rate for this sample was 90.3%. The first-attempt pass rate for the 2013 version of the NCLEX-RN
was 83.0% at the time this analysis was conducted (NCSBN, 2013). In order to run the analysis on
a group as representative of national NCLEX-RN performance as possible, 936 participants were
randomly selected from the group of 1,642 to have a sample pass rate of 83.0%. One outlier was
© 2014 Assessment Technologies Institute ®, Inc. 2
and NCLEX-RN® Readiness
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor® 2013 is twofold. The first purpose is
to provide students and educators with a numeric indication of the likelihood of passing
the NCLEX-RN® at the student’s current level of readiness. The second purpose is to guide
remediation efforts based on the exam content missed. This is achieved by providing a listing of
topics related to missed items in the individual and group score reports. To provide the numeric
indication of NCLEX-RN readiness, ATI engages in an extensive validation process involving a
statistical comparison of student performance on the RN Comprehensive Predictor 2013 and
actual NCLEX-RN first attempt pass/fail status.
Table 1 displays the results of this process. Each student’s individual score (expressed as a
percentage correct) is associated with a probability of passing the NCLEX-RN. The relationship
between Predictor scores and probability of passing rests on these assumptions.
1. The students taking the assessment are at or near completion of an RN nursing program and are
about to sit for the NCLEX-RN. Students with a significant amount of instruction to receive
before taking the NCLEX-RN can be expected to underperform on the Predictor.
2. The probability of passing refers to students’ first NCLEX-RN attempt after taking the Predictor.
After repeated attempts, it is expected that most students will eventually pass, but these
attempts are outside the realm of the Predictor.
3. The typical expectations of students taking a standardized test are met (e.g., students are
motivated to perform, no cheating has occurred, test is given under standardized
conditions in a proctored environment).
To the extent that these assumptions are not met, the validity of the prediction and of the test
scores themselves can be in question.
© 2014 Assessment Technologies Institute ®, Inc. 1
, RN Comprehensive Predictor® 2013
and NCLEX-RN® Readiness
EXPECTANCY TABLE OF INDIVIDUAL PERCENTAGE CORRECT SCORE
Table 1
AND PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF PASSING NCLEX-RN
RN COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTOR PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF PASSING
2013 INDIVIDUAL SCORE THE NCLEX-RN
80.0% to 100.0% 99%
77.3% to 79.3% 98%
74.0% to 76.7% 96% to 97%
72.0% to 73.3% 94% to 95%
70.0% to 71.3% 91% to 93%
68.7% to 69.3% 89% to 90%
66.7% to 68.0% 84% to 87%
65.3% to 66.0% 80% to 82%
63.3% to 64.7% 73% to 78%
60.0% to 62.7% 59% to 71%
54.0% to 59.3% 31% to 56%
0.0% to 53.3% 1% to 28%
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF PASSING NCLEX-RN
EXPECTANCY TABLE
SAMPLE
The data for the expectancy table (Table 1) were collected during the norming phase of the
Predictor development. In the spring of 2013, ATI client institutions were asked if they would be
willing to administer the assessment to their RN students who were near graduation and expected
to sit for the NCLEX-RN in the summer of 2013. One hundred and three (103) RN nursing
programs volunteered and provided a total of 3,142 students who sat for the RN Comprehensive
Predictor. The original norms (means and percentile ranks) for the assessment were set based
on this sample of 3,142. These norms are initially reset based on students who have taken the
Predictor under live conditions after a sufficient sample has been accumulated.
All 3,142 students taking the assessment were asked if they would be willing to allow their
instructors to share their NCLEX-RN first attempt results with ATI. ATI only asked instructors for
the NCLEX-RN results of students who specifically agreed to provide them. Complete data from
1,642 students were obtained for the expectancy table development. The reported NCLEX-RN pass
rate for this sample was 90.3%. The first-attempt pass rate for the 2013 version of the NCLEX-RN
was 83.0% at the time this analysis was conducted (NCSBN, 2013). In order to run the analysis on
a group as representative of national NCLEX-RN performance as possible, 936 participants were
randomly selected from the group of 1,642 to have a sample pass rate of 83.0%. One outlier was
© 2014 Assessment Technologies Institute ®, Inc. 2
