Preamble: talking about policy
Positive (descriptive) analysis addresses factual questions : how is
the reality?
Normative (prescriptive) analysis addresses questions that involve
value judgements: how should things be?
Distinction: rooted in work of Scottish philosopher David
Hume (1711-76)
Correlation: statistical association between variables (they
covary), two variables move in the same direction
Causation : change in one variable causes a change in another
variable
*correlation does NOT imply causation!!!
o A third (cofounding) variable may have an effect on both
variables
o Reverse causality: does one cause the other or vice versa?
Talking about policy, formulating policy recommendations and
policy advice:
o Requires good understanding of society (descriptive analysis)
Of the causal mechanisms between the variables of
interest
o Are conditional on a normative position (which society do we
want): we may disagree on that position
should be done with care
1. Setting the scene (a conceptual framework)
1.1. Three basic institutions
Societies: multilevel structure
Local (community) ex. Antwerp
Regional ex. Flanders
National (nation state) ex. BE
Supranational ex. EU
Global ex. World
Members of society
o = Individuals that society consists of, membership
(citizenship) entails rights: T.H. Marshall, 1950
18th century: Civil rights for individual freedom
19th: Political rights: to participate in exercise of
political power
20th: Social rights: to live the life of a civilized
being according to the standards prevailing in the
society
European Pillar of Social Rights (= supranational level)
, o Ratified in 2017 by EU member countries VERY late
that social rights are thought about on this level
o 20 social rights:
Social protection and inclusion
Equal opportunities and access to the labor market
Fair working conditions
o Action plan in 2021
Basic institutions
o Members of society =/= isolated atoms they live,
work,.. together they form basic (social) institutions
o 3 basic institutions (= main actors)
* macro-history (history of homo sapiens): brain larger,
jaw and teeth smaller through time
big heads = early in human development (babies
able to be born) >< some animals born later in their
development! = can walk few hours after being born,…
(ex. horses)
babies need care, are helpless = structure,
collaborations, institutions are necessary
1- The family ( informal, non-profit, private)
Why formed by humans? To…
o Create new members + care after them
o Provide mutual assistance and help
o Collaborate
o Pool resources
o …
Informal organization
2- The government ( formal, non-profit, public)
Cognitive Revolution
o +- 70,000y ago
o Homo Sapiens develops language: new
possibilities
Collaboration in (larger) groups
Creation of imagined reality
(thinking ab abstract notions)
Sharing of myths, beliefs, legends,
…
Development of culture and
religions
Exchange and trade
(LLM = large language model)
The market: the members of a society
engage in exchange, on the market. Most
markets rely on sellers offering their goods or
services to buyers in exchange for money.
, o A PLACE! Not an actor, the market itself
doesn’t do anything
o Exchange = essential feature, money
isn’t
o Market itself =/= basic institution!
Pre-historic care
o Case of Romito 2 (earliest known case of
dwarfism)
Italy – Grotta del Romito
Male, 17-20y old, 120cm, died 11k y
ago
Compromised mobility, restricted
forearm extension
Could not have conformed to
normative demands in his
community!
Received care at diff stages of
life
Agricultural Revolution
o +- 10k y ago
o Homo sapiens develops farming and
agriculture staying in same place
possible!
Larger societies can be sustained,
increases food production per m²
Some members can do other things
besides hunting and gathering food
Writing system developed
Social hierarchies (and inequality)
emerge ex. slavery
The government
o Larger societies formal organization
required (too complex)
o The government (the “state”) = some
members given the power to rule over
others
o Functions:
Creating + enforcing laws
Codex of Hammurabi: Babylonian
legal text (1776 BC), now in Louvre
= one of most ancient examples of
written law text
Collecting + spending taxes
in Ancient Egypt = one of the
first taxations: 1/5 of crops given to
Pharaoh
3- The firm ( formal, for-profit, private)
, The Great Enrichment (Industrial
revolution) early 19th century
o Homo sapiens invents steam engine
Economies of scale: increase of
productivity
Putting out system factory
system
Urbanization: migration towards
large cities (firms are here)
Paid for amount of hours worked:
change in relation and meaning of
work
o Deep transformation of societies
Economic growth: measuring
o GDP: Gross Domestic Product = metric of
a society’s total economic output /
metric of the market value of all the
final goods and services produced
and sold (not resold) in a specific time
period by country
o GDP per capita = GDP of a society/total
number of inhabitants of that society
The firm
o Economies of scale firms: use
production means (capital and labour) to
produce goods
o Laborers = paid by hour worked
o Labour conditions for employees worsen,
uncertain living conditions, inequality
and poverty increase
the “social question”
o Commodification of human labour:
people = producers of labour
Commodification = the
transformation of things (goods,
services, labour) into
commodities that are sold on the
market
Marxist notion
After industrial revolution:
individuals need to sell their labour
to stay out of poverty, they face
(labour) market dependency
Social norm = that you work, not
really a choice anymore
Three basic institutions and the market
o Firms need production means to produce goods
, o Families own production means and want to consume
goods
o Room for exchanges on the market
Market for goods, labour or capital
o Government regulates exchange and enforces contracts
Free self-regulating market = market without regulation by
the government
o Ex. Russia in 1990s (Washington Consensus), Bitcoin
A fourth basic institution? (can be argued)
o Voluntary associations, non-profit organizations,
charities form the civil society important source of
social innovation (but not our focus)
o = Formal, non-profit, private
1.2. The basic structure of a society
= Describes how tasks, rights and duties, and advantages of
social cooperation are divided between the members of the
society and the basic institutions
Dividing advantages of social cooperation requires a
“theory of justice”
Different societies = different basic structures
A central fault line: ownership and allocation of the
production means
1- Capitalism
Private ownership of production means
Allocation of production means by free exchanges on
the market (you decide what the price is of what you
own)
Adam Smith’s invisible hand
Own interest = important! Ex. A baker doesn’t bake for
benefit of others
2- Marxism/socialism
Collective ownership of production means
Allocation of production means by centralized planning
(government decides prices,…)
“From each according to his ability, to each according to
his needs”
3- Welfare state
Socialism and capitalism as extreme (utopian) basic
structures on the ideological left-right scale (intermediate
positions are possible!)
Opposing views to decide allocation
, Through this state, the government of a society
intervenes in the play of market forces to improve the
welfare of its members
= the set of policies in which the government
intervenes, power of government is used in four
directions:
o Correct market failures and provide public services
o Cover social risks
o Reduce inequalities
o Mitigate poverty
Welfare state…
o As pragmatic alternative to pure capitalism:
there’s no deep theory, just reacting to what’s
happening
Most welfare states started from capitalism
o Are omnipresent
o In different forms (influenced by Marxism and
corporatism)
Size:
o Some countries spend up to 30% of GDP on social
spending
Average 19% (OECD 2015)
o Big diversity between countries!
o Ex. graphs on slides 65-…
o * Remark! Social expenditure as measure of size of
the welfare state: it captures two aspects:
The generosity of the welfare state (how
much does each beneficiary get?)
The needs in a society (how many
beneficiaries are there in a country)
Different conceptions of the welfare state
1- Welfare for the poor Ex. food stamps, OCMW
2- + taxation and redistribution Ex. personal income tax
3- + social insurance Ex. sociale zekerheid, NHS
4- + socio-economic policies by the government Ex.
role of government in shaping markets
Welfare state and the market: interpretation
o Structural interpretation of the welfare state as
a response to societal problems created by
unregulated (free) market capitalism
Welfare state as a damage-limiting, problem-
solving device
Critiques:
, From progressives (left): ameliorative
approach, but no radical cure is offered
to underlying problems
From conservatives (right): too
generous & expensive, demoralizes
recipients
Welfare state and power
o Alternative interpretation from power resource
theory
the welfare state is a product of interest
conflicts, class struggle and class alliances
welfare state as result of working-class
power achieved through organization by
labour unions or left parties
4- Corporatism (between 1 and 2)
Deliberation and cooperation between the
institutional representatives of capitalists (who deliver
capital) and laborers (who deliver labour)
o Employers and employees
Allocation of production means by deliberation and
market (what are the terms in which we are exchanging
labour?)
o Government: player / playmaker of deliberation
Inspired by guilds
Ex. social dialogue (BE) why we have many strikes
1.3. Social contract
= a hypothetical contract between the citizens of the
society which describes its basic structure
Founding fathers:
o Hobbes: has a state authority over an individual?
state can’t tell you what to do
o Locke: is property legitimate? government =
protector of property rights
o Rousseau: sovereignty should be in the hands of the
people in line with general will
Social contract with overlapping generations
o Social contracts are negotiated and re-negotiated by
“real people” from overlapping generations
o Renegotiations:
Normal times: piecemeal adjustments
Turning point: deep revision
o Practical negotiations may lead to policy reforms
Parametric policy reform: change parameters of
the existing policy system, keeping overall
structure the same
, Structural policy reform: structure of existing
policy system also changes
2. When markets fail
Why not leave everything to free exchange (families – firms) on a
self-regulating market?
Why do we need a government that modifies market forces?
Why do we need a welfare state?
o Arguments based on efficiency (lecture 2 & 3)
o Arguments based on justice (lecture 4 & 5)
2.1. Invisible hand
The libertarian ideal of a self-regulating market
o Libertarianism = political philosophy that takes individual
freedom as a central value + argues that government
intervention is (morally) wrong
freedom so important that they want a world without
government
VS
o Liberalism = political philosophy that takes individual
freedom as a central value + argues that governments are a
tool to ensure their liberties (for all)
Social political dimension (two polar cases!)
o Libertarianism (see )
VS
o Authoritarianism = political philosophy that takes
order and stability as central values and justifying
restrictions on individual freedoms
o Right-libertarian thinkers (yellow)
Nozick: the ‘nightwatchman’ state: a state with a
self-regulating free market – government only
provides the public good “safety”
Hayek: the pursuit of social justice (equality) will
destroy liberty
, Philosophical underpinnings of “Chicago school”
economics
Mont Pelerin society
Recent wave of libertarian ideas in politics (nov
2023): Javier Milei (prime minister of Argentina)
elected world’s first self-identified libertarian head
of state
o Problem for social-economic scientist: imagining a
counterfactual society? chemists/… can do
experiments (what’ll happen when this changes…) - we
can’t
Really complex world, too much to think about:
we build a model of a society that allows the
study of a counterfactual society
We start from a benchmark model: simplified
model
Here, we make 6 assumptions :
1- Individuals are rational
2- Individuals have perfect information
3- Markets are perfectly competitive
4- Markets are complete
5- There are no public goods
6- There are no externalities
The invisible hand
o First welfare Theorem: in the benchmark model,
free exchange on a self-regulating market leads to a
Pareto efficient outcome
= Adam Smith’s invisible hand
Allocation is Pareto efficient when it is
IMpossibile to make a Pareto improvement
After a Pareto improvement someone is
better off and nobody is worse off
Result of Pareto efficiency = wasteless!!
Pareto efficiency says NOTHING about
justice, it’s just about efficiency (outcome
can be unjust!)
Free exchange leads to Pareto
improvement bc if both parties involved
would not benefit from it, they wouldn’t
exchange
When the conditions of the benchmark model
are fulfilled, the self-regulating market is Pareto
efficient
2.2. Market failures
, The benchmark model is not very realistic, there are market
failures in reality a reason why we need a welfare state
o Our situation: welfare state = set of all socio-economic
policies
Assumptions in the benchmark model:
1- Rational individuals
Rational for other people = “smart”
Rational for economist = “consistent”
o Psychology and behavioral
economics:
Real individuals are not always
rational - E.g. Framing (choice
depends on how it is presented)
Real individuals suffer from
bounded will-power – promising
yourself to do something but
postponing when it’s time to do so
(procrastination)
Nudging:
Framing: choice depends on
how it is presented
A nudge = particular way to
present the choice that alters
people’s behaviour in a
predictable way without
restricting options
Government Role 1. Nudge decision making
Nudging individuals by thinking carefully about
the framing of decisions (choice architecture)
Raising ethical questions: “Libertarian
paternalism“
Libertarian : you chose yourself – all the
options are possible
Paternalism : parents telling you what to
do – the choice architecture matters
2- Individuals have perfect information (about price
and quality)
Prices and quality often unclear (quality: second-
hand, hiring an employee, buying bio-
products…)
Government role 2. Improve information
Regulating information on products
(requirements on packaging...)
EU important role