UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA (UNISA)
College of Law — Department of Criminology and Security Science
⋄
Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and
Crime Analysis in the South African
Criminal Justice System
Assignment 02 — Semester 2, 2026
⋄
Module Code: CMY4804
Module Name: Advanced Criminology: Risk Assessment,
Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
Assignment No.: Assignment 02
Due Date: 15 September 2026
Semester: Semester 2, 2026
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for CMY4804
at the University of South Africa.
,UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
1 Introduction
Risk assessment, criminal profiling and crime analysis form the analytical core of applied
criminology in South Africa. They are the instruments through which a criminologist moves
from a bare charge sheet to an evidence-based account of who an offender is, why the of-
fending occurred, how dangerous the offender remains, and what the courts and correctional
system should do about it. This assignment applies these instruments to the case of Sim-
phiwe Xolani Mkhwanazi, sentenced by the Mpumalanga Division of the High Court, sitting in
Breyten, to two life terms plus an additional 105 years’ imprisonment after conviction on ten
counts, including murder, four counts of rape, two counts of kidnapping, two counts of rob-
bery with aggravating circumstances, and defeating the administration of justice, committed
between July 2021 and August 2023 in the Amersfoort and Daggakraal areas of Mpumalanga
(National Prosecuting Authority, 2026). The discussion first explains the significance of risk
assessment and criminal profiling within the South African criminal justice system, draw-
ing on recent literature. It then presents a criminological pre-sentence-style evaluation of
Mkhwanazi, categorises and analyses his offending pattern, and applies a theoretical frame-
work limited to three theories, namely routine activity theory, social learning theory and life-
course-persistent offending theory, before concluding with an evaluation of the implications
for sentencing and offender management. All factual material relating to the offences is
drawn from the reported judgment and from the National Prosecuting Authority’s public state-
ment on the matter; no clinical interview material was available to the compiler, a limitation
discussed in section 3.2.
Page 1 of 17
, UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
2 Definitions of Key Concepts
2.1 2.1 Serial rape
Serial rape refers to a pattern of two or more separate rape offences committed by the same
offender against different victims, typically unknown to one another, over a period of time,
in which the offender displays a recognisable and repeated behavioural signature in victim
selection, approach and method (Hazelwood and Warren, 2004). South African criminolog-
ical literature situates serial sexual offending within a broader continuum of repetitive, sex-
ually motivated violence in which the offender’s modus operandi may remain stable across
offences while incidental features, such as the level of force used, escalate or adapt in re-
sponse to victim resistance or situational opportunity (Labuschagne, 2016). On the facts
before the Mpumalanga High Court, Mkhwanazi was convicted of four separate counts of
rape committed against different women between July 2021 and June 2023, a pattern that
meets the definitional threshold of serial sexual offending even though the State did not for-
mally charge the matter as "serial rape" as a distinct statutory category, since South African
law prosecutes each rape as a separate count under the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and
Related Matters) Amendment Act 32 of 2007.
2.2 2.2 Risk assessment
Risk assessment is the systematic, evidence-based process of estimating the likelihood that
an offender will reoffend, and of identifying the specific factors, static and dynamic, that ele-
vate or reduce that likelihood, in order to inform decisions on sentencing, placement, supervi-
sion and treatment (Bonta, 2002). Static factors are historical and unchangeable, such as age
at first offence or number of prior convictions, while dynamic factors, sometimes called crim-
inogenic needs, are changeable and treatment-relevant, such as substance misuse, hostile
attitudes toward women, or absence of employment (Andrews and Bonta, 2010). In the South
African correctional and forensic criminological context, risk assessment has evolved since
the mid-1990s from a largely unstructured clinical judgement model toward instruments that
combine actuarial and clinical elements, although a standardised, validated national frame-
work specific to violent and sexual offenders remains underdeveloped (Hesselink, 2017).
Page 2 of 17
College of Law — Department of Criminology and Security Science
⋄
Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and
Crime Analysis in the South African
Criminal Justice System
Assignment 02 — Semester 2, 2026
⋄
Module Code: CMY4804
Module Name: Advanced Criminology: Risk Assessment,
Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
Assignment No.: Assignment 02
Due Date: 15 September 2026
Semester: Semester 2, 2026
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for CMY4804
at the University of South Africa.
,UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
1 Introduction
Risk assessment, criminal profiling and crime analysis form the analytical core of applied
criminology in South Africa. They are the instruments through which a criminologist moves
from a bare charge sheet to an evidence-based account of who an offender is, why the of-
fending occurred, how dangerous the offender remains, and what the courts and correctional
system should do about it. This assignment applies these instruments to the case of Sim-
phiwe Xolani Mkhwanazi, sentenced by the Mpumalanga Division of the High Court, sitting in
Breyten, to two life terms plus an additional 105 years’ imprisonment after conviction on ten
counts, including murder, four counts of rape, two counts of kidnapping, two counts of rob-
bery with aggravating circumstances, and defeating the administration of justice, committed
between July 2021 and August 2023 in the Amersfoort and Daggakraal areas of Mpumalanga
(National Prosecuting Authority, 2026). The discussion first explains the significance of risk
assessment and criminal profiling within the South African criminal justice system, draw-
ing on recent literature. It then presents a criminological pre-sentence-style evaluation of
Mkhwanazi, categorises and analyses his offending pattern, and applies a theoretical frame-
work limited to three theories, namely routine activity theory, social learning theory and life-
course-persistent offending theory, before concluding with an evaluation of the implications
for sentencing and offender management. All factual material relating to the offences is
drawn from the reported judgment and from the National Prosecuting Authority’s public state-
ment on the matter; no clinical interview material was available to the compiler, a limitation
discussed in section 3.2.
Page 1 of 17
, UNISA | CMY4804 Risk Assessment, Criminal Profiling and Crime Analysis
2 Definitions of Key Concepts
2.1 2.1 Serial rape
Serial rape refers to a pattern of two or more separate rape offences committed by the same
offender against different victims, typically unknown to one another, over a period of time,
in which the offender displays a recognisable and repeated behavioural signature in victim
selection, approach and method (Hazelwood and Warren, 2004). South African criminolog-
ical literature situates serial sexual offending within a broader continuum of repetitive, sex-
ually motivated violence in which the offender’s modus operandi may remain stable across
offences while incidental features, such as the level of force used, escalate or adapt in re-
sponse to victim resistance or situational opportunity (Labuschagne, 2016). On the facts
before the Mpumalanga High Court, Mkhwanazi was convicted of four separate counts of
rape committed against different women between July 2021 and June 2023, a pattern that
meets the definitional threshold of serial sexual offending even though the State did not for-
mally charge the matter as "serial rape" as a distinct statutory category, since South African
law prosecutes each rape as a separate count under the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and
Related Matters) Amendment Act 32 of 2007.
2.2 2.2 Risk assessment
Risk assessment is the systematic, evidence-based process of estimating the likelihood that
an offender will reoffend, and of identifying the specific factors, static and dynamic, that ele-
vate or reduce that likelihood, in order to inform decisions on sentencing, placement, supervi-
sion and treatment (Bonta, 2002). Static factors are historical and unchangeable, such as age
at first offence or number of prior convictions, while dynamic factors, sometimes called crim-
inogenic needs, are changeable and treatment-relevant, such as substance misuse, hostile
attitudes toward women, or absence of employment (Andrews and Bonta, 2010). In the South
African correctional and forensic criminological context, risk assessment has evolved since
the mid-1990s from a largely unstructured clinical judgement model toward instruments that
combine actuarial and clinical elements, although a standardised, validated national frame-
work specific to violent and sexual offenders remains underdeveloped (Hesselink, 2017).
Page 2 of 17
