Problem Data
BRADY HEALTHY AND PATRIOTS REACH: Probability
Super Bowl 0.05
AFC championship 0.15
Divisional championship 0.35
Divisional playoffs 0.4
No playoff 0.05
demand parameters
PEYTON HEALTHY AND BRONCOS REACH: µ σ
Super Bowl 50,000 13,843
AFC championship 45,000 4,756
Divisional championship 30,000 3,671
Divisional playoffs 25,000 4,361
No playoff 20,000 3,315
P(longterm injury before divisional playoffs) 20%
Demand will be:
a 8000 jerseys
b 12000 jerseys
Nike Lot Order quantity Production Dozens Per Lot
Order quantity 20 144
e $ 12,500.00
Wholesale Price to Retailers $ 40.00
Cost from Manufacturer $ 12.00
End of Season Salvage Cost $ 9.50
Brady hurt rn
0.193443077862355
0.0795725245317581
0.257102282711026
0.00534868090531881
0.847732434358759
0.390067923182706
0.0272280360929287
0.966258793571745
0.349064592681602
0.00826956265398859
0.806757460409705
, 0.231247297204001
0.442076336835733
0.646180747788238
0.525653834998006
0.78868712624012
0.0640057418762841
0.321286576181402
0.756269223005283
0.528712986952531
0.456253975840992
0.326523222406987
0.100649579541446
0.511659306454596
0.146125946891732
0.353757624779409
0.903256211793018
0.871410261333484
0.0289212281922813
0.0359443630968322
0.04338834637403
0.00297067887167202
0.696130923736231
0.760179701391572
0.364458455773676
0.141308559949785
0.0990940881096153
0.638260297753055
0.996896058454113
0.838084750849472
0.977003513654385
0.456434931946757
0.14682641897273
0.193327047826132
0.548312028508658
0.736886508199785
0.418922525806251
0.51066039567248
0.694700668011871
0.348001344221089
0.726257890875266
0.608747262894662
0.5122769132063
0.871006847864172
0.857591798695855
0.252835974993253
0.149171340871214
0.126808864700519
, 0.135011960590695
0.823796006122307
0.81448640504674
0.676187387486912
0.446057364648471
0.0680588432173053
0.915449779048382
0.769413708779101
0.479836220805288
0.73523363738691
0.361921964372854
0.433313940531557
0.799025656243078
0.634236260740782
0.670867701481068
0.307939327086541
0.739711373010371
0.909437478908708
0.444299346434844
0.495558829317323
0.212983866487123
0.716131939120162
0.898069370056854
0.936877286755657
0.263117584946676
0.581764590178563
0.45573568779065
0.780607466244017
0.78184290111785
0.90190930995956
0.139974759989578
0.823789728028644
0.706199608038398
0.187753085271132
0.831181145571675
0.759987562550132
0.387188239206637
0.530233931382943
0.119732011924669
0.457656400998639
0.139327534888486
0.804783811005963
0.535588361876964
0.766040359653973
0.14380234720543
0.268012748747702
0.50586619017636
, 0.910342735660788
0.394018406655044
0.62336808430966
0.660950325667014
0.242990785410349
0.251954331113084
0.274141441212361
0.111782229791439
0.494870023716292
0.721071581571688
0.595162820195851
0.559569755166707
0.138371515455288
0.25048631264381
0.270744730125816
0.670468148965447
0.398595173496201
0.701657077954603
0.593183628203742
0.71621638210136
0.475229447192833
0.585768836227099
0.155972334722185
0.69857763495582
0.320416282199923
0.41031561845343
0.340044882859035
0.160020863175002
0.215501650055294
0.362980234686479
0.430276422016279
0.0897481714928848
0.625246468242809
0.644675850400367
0.626787670076032
0.497948496376246
0.677181148362345
0.371162479248702
0.237632687888896
0.416314943714008
0.319129864985253
0.713166717447932
0.381669208889674
0.429772676270773
0.619768212022092
0.944239522762311
0.0341675698139743
BRADY HEALTHY AND PATRIOTS REACH: Probability
Super Bowl 0.05
AFC championship 0.15
Divisional championship 0.35
Divisional playoffs 0.4
No playoff 0.05
demand parameters
PEYTON HEALTHY AND BRONCOS REACH: µ σ
Super Bowl 50,000 13,843
AFC championship 45,000 4,756
Divisional championship 30,000 3,671
Divisional playoffs 25,000 4,361
No playoff 20,000 3,315
P(longterm injury before divisional playoffs) 20%
Demand will be:
a 8000 jerseys
b 12000 jerseys
Nike Lot Order quantity Production Dozens Per Lot
Order quantity 20 144
e $ 12,500.00
Wholesale Price to Retailers $ 40.00
Cost from Manufacturer $ 12.00
End of Season Salvage Cost $ 9.50
Brady hurt rn
0.193443077862355
0.0795725245317581
0.257102282711026
0.00534868090531881
0.847732434358759
0.390067923182706
0.0272280360929287
0.966258793571745
0.349064592681602
0.00826956265398859
0.806757460409705
, 0.231247297204001
0.442076336835733
0.646180747788238
0.525653834998006
0.78868712624012
0.0640057418762841
0.321286576181402
0.756269223005283
0.528712986952531
0.456253975840992
0.326523222406987
0.100649579541446
0.511659306454596
0.146125946891732
0.353757624779409
0.903256211793018
0.871410261333484
0.0289212281922813
0.0359443630968322
0.04338834637403
0.00297067887167202
0.696130923736231
0.760179701391572
0.364458455773676
0.141308559949785
0.0990940881096153
0.638260297753055
0.996896058454113
0.838084750849472
0.977003513654385
0.456434931946757
0.14682641897273
0.193327047826132
0.548312028508658
0.736886508199785
0.418922525806251
0.51066039567248
0.694700668011871
0.348001344221089
0.726257890875266
0.608747262894662
0.5122769132063
0.871006847864172
0.857591798695855
0.252835974993253
0.149171340871214
0.126808864700519
, 0.135011960590695
0.823796006122307
0.81448640504674
0.676187387486912
0.446057364648471
0.0680588432173053
0.915449779048382
0.769413708779101
0.479836220805288
0.73523363738691
0.361921964372854
0.433313940531557
0.799025656243078
0.634236260740782
0.670867701481068
0.307939327086541
0.739711373010371
0.909437478908708
0.444299346434844
0.495558829317323
0.212983866487123
0.716131939120162
0.898069370056854
0.936877286755657
0.263117584946676
0.581764590178563
0.45573568779065
0.780607466244017
0.78184290111785
0.90190930995956
0.139974759989578
0.823789728028644
0.706199608038398
0.187753085271132
0.831181145571675
0.759987562550132
0.387188239206637
0.530233931382943
0.119732011924669
0.457656400998639
0.139327534888486
0.804783811005963
0.535588361876964
0.766040359653973
0.14380234720543
0.268012748747702
0.50586619017636
, 0.910342735660788
0.394018406655044
0.62336808430966
0.660950325667014
0.242990785410349
0.251954331113084
0.274141441212361
0.111782229791439
0.494870023716292
0.721071581571688
0.595162820195851
0.559569755166707
0.138371515455288
0.25048631264381
0.270744730125816
0.670468148965447
0.398595173496201
0.701657077954603
0.593183628203742
0.71621638210136
0.475229447192833
0.585768836227099
0.155972334722185
0.69857763495582
0.320416282199923
0.41031561845343
0.340044882859035
0.160020863175002
0.215501650055294
0.362980234686479
0.430276422016279
0.0897481714928848
0.625246468242809
0.644675850400367
0.626787670076032
0.497948496376246
0.677181148362345
0.371162479248702
0.237632687888896
0.416314943714008
0.319129864985253
0.713166717447932
0.381669208889674
0.429772676270773
0.619768212022092
0.944239522762311
0.0341675698139743