Process & project management - summary
Lecture 1: Complex spatial projects: characteristics
The “project mode”
Projects vs plans & policies
- Generic policies vs projects
- Projects are actionable parts of plans
o Specific timing: +-10-25y
o Specific place: project zone, project study area
o Specific budget
Terminology:
- Strategic projects: linked to strat plans // achieve goals by implementing certain plans // impact is
wider than just project site itself
- Environmental projects: water, nature development eg flooding area, etc
- Urban regeneration/renewal/redevelopment
- Infrastructure projects: roads, railways etc -> also codesigning the whole environment
→ complex spatial projects (SDPs): umbrella term compassing all of those projects
Types of CSPs
Scope
- Urban projects
- Business parks
- Landscape projects
- Infrastructure
Who leads the project:
- Public: main budget is funded by public authority (eg stad Antwerpen has development agency
AG Vespa)
- Private: eg Groen kwartier: former military hospital, also old industrial site (pact) which was
bought by a developer so purely private project
- Public-private: mostly developers that contribute to a project
Examples of projects:
- Oosterweel: 38y of planning before the project is realised
- Technically also very difficult -> the more technical a project, the more prone to
escalations in time
- Redevelopment of a street (in Mechelen): operational project
- Cities do these kinds of projects on a routine basis bcs they have prefixed scripts
- Oostende: fringes of cities are being turned into landscape parks to give clear direction which
parts can be turned into agriculture etc -> more sustainable development in the future
- ‘T eilandje: docks have become too small for current port activities so they left -> lot of
warehouses in the area
- 1993: first plans were drawn for the area
- You can’t just move companies, you have to wait till their contracts end
1
,Management characteristics of CSP’s
Complex adaptive systems behave in a completely unpredictable way
What is meant by ‘complexity’? → complex systems theory
- Systems with many different components
- Systems with high distinction between components
- Strong mutual dependency between components: causing feedback loops within the system
Types of complexity
- Technological complexity (design & engineering)
- Societal complexity
- Political complexity
- Organisational complexity
- Juridical-administrative complexity
Technical complexity
Unicity and novelty of technology:
- A lot of complex projects have a technology that’s never been done before so you can’t learn out
of previous experiences
- Designer pov: nice to design sth new that hasn’t been done before
- Project mgt/implementation pov: adds a lot more risk
Functional interdependencies:
- The more the project consists of elements that are independent of each other, the more feasible
the project becomes
- Eg one building with a lot of different functions, makes that they become very interdependent //
dependence between amount of space you provide for cars and for other functions
Uncertainty regarding impact:
- For most projects you’ll have to make environmental impact assessment, mandatory in Europe ->
pretty difficult to do bcs you have to look into the future, you make assumptions abt the future
- also impact on economics of social aspects: even more difficult bcs not many good predictive
theories abt what certain urban development projects will do → more guessing than strict
scientific assessment
Technological dynamics during project:
- Some technologies might become obsolete; some projects failed bcs they missed the evolution of
technologies
- Overdesign: eg first floor of building having more height than strictly necessary bcs a lower ceiling
would be good for housing but for retailing you need more height -> if from onset higher, more
robust to future changes in functions // providing more than strictly in necessary // eg bridge: just
2
, set dimensions to lane of cars but can also make bridge wider to accommodate other modes of
transport (fe tram) -> more open to different functions in the future
- Proven technology: learning from previous examples is very important!
- Loose coupling: not too much interdependency
Example Leuven:
- Beneath strip is one big parking lot, if you construct the parking lot you have to construct the
whole thing -> not manageable bcs no phasing, if developer is going to develop that and you
oblige them to build and sell 50000m² in one year, there’s no market for that bcs prices will go
down and developer will lose money → risk too high to do it
- Hotel, offices and movie theatre in one building: contracts with several companies (eg kinepolis,
ibis, company that sells housing units) must be completed before you can start with the project →
if one of the stakeholders pulls out, you have to stop bcs there’s no fallback option
- → feasible incremental implementation is very important
Organisational complexity
Different stakeholders that have to be taken into account: public organisations, private organisations, civil
society
Mutual dependency: resource dependency
Obliged to cooperate
Political and societal complexity
Societal complexity
- Large societal impact
- Differential impact on society: winners and losers
- Projects result in societal struggles
Political complexity
- Different political preferences: always political struggle between different parties
- Political rivalry: political actors block each other, the opposition trying to block projects from other
parties by joining or triggering protest groups
- Multi-level governance
- Effect of elections on projects is important: over-promising, upspeeding // face projects in such a
way that you can give sth that politicians can show off with
- Short transformation time: more manageable bcs preferences will change over time
3
, Juridical-administrative complexity
Spatial planning legislation and instruments (zoning)
Environmental legislation: EIS
Public procurement
Land acquisition
Megaprojects, a separate species of CSPs
Example The Line:
- Technical complexity is very high bcs water, straight line that goes through mountains
- Very internally dependent; 10mio ppl at once is not possible; planning entirely new cities is
always a bad idea bcs struggle between having functions or people there // normal cities grow
incrementally and adaptive
- Mgt pov: nightmare, even in saudi arabia that has a lore of oil and money and political support →
will not be finished
What are megaprojects?
- Cost >1 billion
- Many years to build
- Involve multiple stakeholders
- Impact millions of people
Research on megaproject performance shows systematic
- Cost overrun: eg Oosterweel: Normally 500mio but now cost is 9billion -> plan was approved with
500mio estimated cost
- Time slippage
- Non-implementation
- Underperformance or underuse
- Decreasing ambition levels over time: eg uni of maastricht by Calatrava -> never built
Flyvbjerg (2003): cost overrun of megaprojects
- 9/10 transport infrastructure projects fall victim to cost escalation
- Roads are less prone to cost escalation than tunnel, rail etc → bcs technical complexity is
higher with fixed links
- Cost escalation is a global phenomenon
- Cost escalation is more pronounced in developing nations than in North America and Europe
- Cost escalation has not decreased over the past 70y -> no learning takes place
Theoretical causes of failures
The sublime of megaprojects (sublime = the awe different stakeholders have for big, remarkable and technical complext
project)
4
Lecture 1: Complex spatial projects: characteristics
The “project mode”
Projects vs plans & policies
- Generic policies vs projects
- Projects are actionable parts of plans
o Specific timing: +-10-25y
o Specific place: project zone, project study area
o Specific budget
Terminology:
- Strategic projects: linked to strat plans // achieve goals by implementing certain plans // impact is
wider than just project site itself
- Environmental projects: water, nature development eg flooding area, etc
- Urban regeneration/renewal/redevelopment
- Infrastructure projects: roads, railways etc -> also codesigning the whole environment
→ complex spatial projects (SDPs): umbrella term compassing all of those projects
Types of CSPs
Scope
- Urban projects
- Business parks
- Landscape projects
- Infrastructure
Who leads the project:
- Public: main budget is funded by public authority (eg stad Antwerpen has development agency
AG Vespa)
- Private: eg Groen kwartier: former military hospital, also old industrial site (pact) which was
bought by a developer so purely private project
- Public-private: mostly developers that contribute to a project
Examples of projects:
- Oosterweel: 38y of planning before the project is realised
- Technically also very difficult -> the more technical a project, the more prone to
escalations in time
- Redevelopment of a street (in Mechelen): operational project
- Cities do these kinds of projects on a routine basis bcs they have prefixed scripts
- Oostende: fringes of cities are being turned into landscape parks to give clear direction which
parts can be turned into agriculture etc -> more sustainable development in the future
- ‘T eilandje: docks have become too small for current port activities so they left -> lot of
warehouses in the area
- 1993: first plans were drawn for the area
- You can’t just move companies, you have to wait till their contracts end
1
,Management characteristics of CSP’s
Complex adaptive systems behave in a completely unpredictable way
What is meant by ‘complexity’? → complex systems theory
- Systems with many different components
- Systems with high distinction between components
- Strong mutual dependency between components: causing feedback loops within the system
Types of complexity
- Technological complexity (design & engineering)
- Societal complexity
- Political complexity
- Organisational complexity
- Juridical-administrative complexity
Technical complexity
Unicity and novelty of technology:
- A lot of complex projects have a technology that’s never been done before so you can’t learn out
of previous experiences
- Designer pov: nice to design sth new that hasn’t been done before
- Project mgt/implementation pov: adds a lot more risk
Functional interdependencies:
- The more the project consists of elements that are independent of each other, the more feasible
the project becomes
- Eg one building with a lot of different functions, makes that they become very interdependent //
dependence between amount of space you provide for cars and for other functions
Uncertainty regarding impact:
- For most projects you’ll have to make environmental impact assessment, mandatory in Europe ->
pretty difficult to do bcs you have to look into the future, you make assumptions abt the future
- also impact on economics of social aspects: even more difficult bcs not many good predictive
theories abt what certain urban development projects will do → more guessing than strict
scientific assessment
Technological dynamics during project:
- Some technologies might become obsolete; some projects failed bcs they missed the evolution of
technologies
- Overdesign: eg first floor of building having more height than strictly necessary bcs a lower ceiling
would be good for housing but for retailing you need more height -> if from onset higher, more
robust to future changes in functions // providing more than strictly in necessary // eg bridge: just
2
, set dimensions to lane of cars but can also make bridge wider to accommodate other modes of
transport (fe tram) -> more open to different functions in the future
- Proven technology: learning from previous examples is very important!
- Loose coupling: not too much interdependency
Example Leuven:
- Beneath strip is one big parking lot, if you construct the parking lot you have to construct the
whole thing -> not manageable bcs no phasing, if developer is going to develop that and you
oblige them to build and sell 50000m² in one year, there’s no market for that bcs prices will go
down and developer will lose money → risk too high to do it
- Hotel, offices and movie theatre in one building: contracts with several companies (eg kinepolis,
ibis, company that sells housing units) must be completed before you can start with the project →
if one of the stakeholders pulls out, you have to stop bcs there’s no fallback option
- → feasible incremental implementation is very important
Organisational complexity
Different stakeholders that have to be taken into account: public organisations, private organisations, civil
society
Mutual dependency: resource dependency
Obliged to cooperate
Political and societal complexity
Societal complexity
- Large societal impact
- Differential impact on society: winners and losers
- Projects result in societal struggles
Political complexity
- Different political preferences: always political struggle between different parties
- Political rivalry: political actors block each other, the opposition trying to block projects from other
parties by joining or triggering protest groups
- Multi-level governance
- Effect of elections on projects is important: over-promising, upspeeding // face projects in such a
way that you can give sth that politicians can show off with
- Short transformation time: more manageable bcs preferences will change over time
3
, Juridical-administrative complexity
Spatial planning legislation and instruments (zoning)
Environmental legislation: EIS
Public procurement
Land acquisition
Megaprojects, a separate species of CSPs
Example The Line:
- Technical complexity is very high bcs water, straight line that goes through mountains
- Very internally dependent; 10mio ppl at once is not possible; planning entirely new cities is
always a bad idea bcs struggle between having functions or people there // normal cities grow
incrementally and adaptive
- Mgt pov: nightmare, even in saudi arabia that has a lore of oil and money and political support →
will not be finished
What are megaprojects?
- Cost >1 billion
- Many years to build
- Involve multiple stakeholders
- Impact millions of people
Research on megaproject performance shows systematic
- Cost overrun: eg Oosterweel: Normally 500mio but now cost is 9billion -> plan was approved with
500mio estimated cost
- Time slippage
- Non-implementation
- Underperformance or underuse
- Decreasing ambition levels over time: eg uni of maastricht by Calatrava -> never built
Flyvbjerg (2003): cost overrun of megaprojects
- 9/10 transport infrastructure projects fall victim to cost escalation
- Roads are less prone to cost escalation than tunnel, rail etc → bcs technical complexity is
higher with fixed links
- Cost escalation is a global phenomenon
- Cost escalation is more pronounced in developing nations than in North America and Europe
- Cost escalation has not decreased over the past 70y -> no learning takes place
Theoretical causes of failures
The sublime of megaprojects (sublime = the awe different stakeholders have for big, remarkable and technical complext
project)
4
