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What challenges do decision-makers face when making a decision?
*Limited cognitive resources
*Time constraints when collecting information relevant to decision making
*Need to take action, not withstanding our lack of access to all the
potentially important detail
,What does collected data about heuristics tell researchers?
*People are often inaccurate in predicting probabilities/statistical
frequencies
-ie: How likely is it that something is true or is going to happen?
Explain Tversky and Kahneman's study on heuristics (1974)
Presented a condition and asked participants to categorize person based
on description
-eg:
"Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little
interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a
need for order and structure, and a passion for detail."
What is Steve's Occupation? Salesman or Librarian?
*most chose librarian, despite the presence of more salesman existing
,Representativeness Heuristic
judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to
represent, or match, particular prototypes; may lead us to ignore other
relevant information
What is the issue(s) with using the Representativeness Heuristic
Base-rate information is usually ignored
What is the tendency of people's decisions (ie-people's decision show too
much of what?)
Too focused on whether the description is representative of a category's
members, we often ignore useful base rate information
-We commit base-rate neglect
, Base Rate
a statistic used to describe the percentage of a population that
demonstrates some characteristics.
-Indicates probability based on the absence of information
When do people tend to respect base-rate information?
Only when there is no description given
Base-Rate Neglect
The tendency to ignore information about general principles in favor of
very specific but vivid information.