Financieel Management &
Investeringsanalyse
MSc Bedrijfskunde (VUB) - 2026 - Prof: L. De Moor
HOC 1: DCF & Valuing bonds.................................................................................................. 4
Fundamental Valuation Principle: Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF)....................... 4
One-period case........................................................................................................... 4
Multi-period case.......................................................................................................... 4
Valuing Bonds.................................................................................................................... 4
Terminologie................................................................................................................. 4
Valuing a Bond............................................................................................................. 5
Semi-jaarlijkse coupons............................................................................................... 6
Maturity and Prices.......................................................................................................6
Interest Rates & Inflation.............................................................................................. 7
Yield Curve................................................................................................................... 7
Yield Curve en Recessie in de VS................................................................................8
Current Yield Curve: Normaal (4 februari 2026)...........................................................8
2022's Yield Curve: Negatieve Yields...........................................................................9
The Value of Common Stocks............................................................................................9
How Common Stocks Are Traded................................................................................ 9
How Common Stocks Are Valued.............................................................................. 10
Groeistructuur van Dividenden...................................................................................10
Some Thoughts About Growth Rates.........................................................................12
HOC 2: Investment Decisions with the NPV Rule............................................................. 12
A Firm's Cash Flow Generation Process....................................................................12
How Investment Projects Are Valued: NPV................................................................13
How to Calculate the NCF's....................................................................................... 13
Rule 1: Only Cash Flow Is Relevant.....................................................................13
Rule 2: Incrementele Kasstromen , "with versus without the project".................. 13
Rule 3: Treat Inflation Consistently.......................................................................14
Rule 4: Separate Investment and Financing Decision..........................................15
How to Calculate Net Cash Flows and NPV.............................................................. 16
Annuity....................................................................................................................... 16
Present Value of an Annuity....................................................................................... 17
Annuity Factor............................................................................................................ 17
Equivalent Annual Cash Flow (EAC)..........................................................................17
HOC 3: Introduction to Risk................................................................................................ 18
Historisch Rendement van Activa.............................................................................. 18
Meten van Portefeuillerisico....................................................................................... 19
Berekening van Portefeuillerisico............................................................................... 20
Verwacht portefeuillerendement........................................................................... 20
, Portefeuillevariantie.............................................................................................. 20
Voorbeeld: Heinz & ExxonMobil........................................................................... 20
Voorbeeld: Portefeuillevariantie bij ρ = 1,0................................................................. 21
Risicodiversificatie...................................................................................................... 21
Voorbeeld: ρ = 0,3................................................................................................ 21
Types van Risico........................................................................................................ 22
Meting van Marktrisico: Beta...................................................................................... 22
Samenvatting: Wanneer Welk Risicomaatstaf?......................................................... 23
HOC 4: Portfolio Theory, CAPM, Risk & CoC.................................................................... 23
Markowitz en de Geboorte van Portfoliotheorie......................................................... 23
Voorbeeld: Heinz & ExxonMobil (Fig. 8.3)............................................................24
Efficiënte Portefeuilles uit 10 Aandelen (Tabel 8.1).............................................. 25
Sharpe Ratio.............................................................................................................. 25
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)..........................................................................26
Security Market Line (SML)........................................................................................ 26
Risicovrije Rente en Marktrisicopremie...................................................................... 27
Alternatieve Theorieën: Fama-French 3-Factor Model.............................................. 27
Risk and the Cost of Capital....................................................................................... 28
Samenvatting: Marktrisico en Variantie................................................................ 28
The Cost of Capital.....................................................................................................29
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)............................................................... 29
Twee Belangrijke Aandachtspunten........................................................................... 29
Welke D en E gebruiken , bedrijf of project?........................................................ 29
Welke β en YTM gebruiken , bedrijf of project?....................................................29
Guest Lecture 1: Introduction to Pensions....................................................................... 30
Pension System: Multi-Pillar Model............................................................................ 30
Publieke Pensioenen , Eerste Pijler........................................................................... 30
Pay-as-you-go vs. Funded schemes.................................................................... 30
Beroepspensioenen , Tweede Pijler...........................................................................31
Persoonlijke Pensioenen , Derde Pijler...................................................................... 31
Pensioenfondsen........................................................................................................31
Beleggingsstrategie van Pensioenfondsen................................................................ 31
Tweede Pijler in België............................................................................................... 31
Toekomstige Uitdagingen........................................................................................... 32
Guest Lecture 2: Real Estate Finance................................................................................32
Real Estate in the Investment Landscape..................................................................32
Vastgoedwaarderingsmethoden.......................................................................................32
Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF)........................................................................32
Berekening van NOI............................................................................................. 32
Voorbeeld: Winkelcentrum (basisgeval)............................................................... 33
Voorbeeld: Vacancy rate.......................................................................................33
Voorbeeld: Parking als Other Income...................................................................33
Voorbeeld: Vierplexgebouw (Anna)...................................................................... 33
Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw (investor).................................................................. 33
2
, Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw met Terminal Value...................................................34
Directe Kapitalisatiemethode (Cap Rate)................................................................... 34
Voorbeeld: Appartementencomplex..................................................................... 34
Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw , combinatie cap rate & DCF.................................... 34
De Vastgoedmarkt: Het Vier-Kwadrantenmodel.........................................................35
Kwadrant 1 , Tenant Market (rechtsboven)...........................................................35
Kwadrant 2 , Investment Market (linksboven)...................................................... 36
Kwadrant 3 , Development Industry (linksonder)..................................................36
Kwadrant 4 , Stock of Space (rechtsonder)..........................................................37
Externe Schokken in het Vier-Kwadrantenmodel....................................................... 38
Schok 1: Economische Groei (Tenant Market)..................................................... 38
Schok 2: Verschuiving in Beleggersvoorkeuren (Investment Market).................. 39
Schok 3: Stijging van Registratierechten (Development Industry)....................... 39
Business Case: Waardering van de Finance Tower...................................................40
Situatieschets....................................................................................................... 40
Inputgegevens...................................................................................................... 40
NOI Berekening.................................................................................................... 41
NPV Berekening (discontovoet 4%)..................................................................... 41
Guest Lecture 3: Building a solid Investment Philosophy...............................................41
Investment Philosophy vs. Investment Strategy.........................................................41
I. A Walk Through Financial History................................................................................. 42
Louis Bachelier en Brownian Motion.......................................................................... 42
De Geboorte van Moderne Portfoliotheorie................................................................42
Home Bias en Geografische Diversificatie................................................................. 42
II. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH)..................................................................... 43
III. Belang van de Rendementsverdeling......................................................................... 43
Korte vs. Lange Termijn..............................................................................................43
Concentratie van Beste en Slechtste Dagen..............................................................44
Risico: Volatiliteit als Tweesnijdend Zwaard...............................................................44
IV. Uitdagingen voor de Efficient Markets Hypothesis......................................................45
A. Behavioral Finance................................................................................................ 45
B. The Wisdom and Foolishness of Crowds.............................................................. 46
3
, HOC 1: DCF & Valuing bonds
Fundamental Valuation Principle: Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation (DCF)
De kerngedachte van DCF-waardering is dat de waarde van een actief gelijk is aan de
prijs die je bereid bent te betalen, gegeven je verwachtingen over toekomstige
kasstromen en je vereist verwacht rendement.
One-period case
Het rendement in één periode wordt als volgt berekend:
r = (CF₁ + P₁ - P₀) / P₀
waarbij CF₁ de verwachte kasstroom is, P₁ de verwachte eindprijs, en P₀ de huidige prijs.
Omgevormd geeft dit de huidige waarde:
P₀ = (CF₁ + P₁) / (1 + r)
De huidige prijs is dus de contante waarde van de toekomstige kasstroom plus eindwaarde,
gedisconteerd tegen het vereiste rendement r.
Multi-period case
Bij meerdere periodes wordt dit uitgebreid naar:
P₀ = Σ [CF / (1 + r)ᵗ] + PH / (1 + r)^H (t = 1 tot H)
PH is de verwachte eindwaarde op tijdstip H. Dit model roept meteen drie fundamentele
vragen op:
● Wat zijn de verwachte kasstromen en eindwaarde? → vereist Fundamental
Analysis
● Wat is het vereiste rendement? → r = r_f + risicopremie (zie hoofdstuk 8)
● Individuele waardering vs. marktwaarde? → prijzen kunnen afwijken van
intrinsieke waarde
● Prijsvolatiliteit en bubbels? → markten kunnen systematisch over- of
onderwaarderen
Valuing Bonds
Terminologie
4
Investeringsanalyse
MSc Bedrijfskunde (VUB) - 2026 - Prof: L. De Moor
HOC 1: DCF & Valuing bonds.................................................................................................. 4
Fundamental Valuation Principle: Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF)....................... 4
One-period case........................................................................................................... 4
Multi-period case.......................................................................................................... 4
Valuing Bonds.................................................................................................................... 4
Terminologie................................................................................................................. 4
Valuing a Bond............................................................................................................. 5
Semi-jaarlijkse coupons............................................................................................... 6
Maturity and Prices.......................................................................................................6
Interest Rates & Inflation.............................................................................................. 7
Yield Curve................................................................................................................... 7
Yield Curve en Recessie in de VS................................................................................8
Current Yield Curve: Normaal (4 februari 2026)...........................................................8
2022's Yield Curve: Negatieve Yields...........................................................................9
The Value of Common Stocks............................................................................................9
How Common Stocks Are Traded................................................................................ 9
How Common Stocks Are Valued.............................................................................. 10
Groeistructuur van Dividenden...................................................................................10
Some Thoughts About Growth Rates.........................................................................12
HOC 2: Investment Decisions with the NPV Rule............................................................. 12
A Firm's Cash Flow Generation Process....................................................................12
How Investment Projects Are Valued: NPV................................................................13
How to Calculate the NCF's....................................................................................... 13
Rule 1: Only Cash Flow Is Relevant.....................................................................13
Rule 2: Incrementele Kasstromen , "with versus without the project".................. 13
Rule 3: Treat Inflation Consistently.......................................................................14
Rule 4: Separate Investment and Financing Decision..........................................15
How to Calculate Net Cash Flows and NPV.............................................................. 16
Annuity....................................................................................................................... 16
Present Value of an Annuity....................................................................................... 17
Annuity Factor............................................................................................................ 17
Equivalent Annual Cash Flow (EAC)..........................................................................17
HOC 3: Introduction to Risk................................................................................................ 18
Historisch Rendement van Activa.............................................................................. 18
Meten van Portefeuillerisico....................................................................................... 19
Berekening van Portefeuillerisico............................................................................... 20
Verwacht portefeuillerendement........................................................................... 20
, Portefeuillevariantie.............................................................................................. 20
Voorbeeld: Heinz & ExxonMobil........................................................................... 20
Voorbeeld: Portefeuillevariantie bij ρ = 1,0................................................................. 21
Risicodiversificatie...................................................................................................... 21
Voorbeeld: ρ = 0,3................................................................................................ 21
Types van Risico........................................................................................................ 22
Meting van Marktrisico: Beta...................................................................................... 22
Samenvatting: Wanneer Welk Risicomaatstaf?......................................................... 23
HOC 4: Portfolio Theory, CAPM, Risk & CoC.................................................................... 23
Markowitz en de Geboorte van Portfoliotheorie......................................................... 23
Voorbeeld: Heinz & ExxonMobil (Fig. 8.3)............................................................24
Efficiënte Portefeuilles uit 10 Aandelen (Tabel 8.1).............................................. 25
Sharpe Ratio.............................................................................................................. 25
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)..........................................................................26
Security Market Line (SML)........................................................................................ 26
Risicovrije Rente en Marktrisicopremie...................................................................... 27
Alternatieve Theorieën: Fama-French 3-Factor Model.............................................. 27
Risk and the Cost of Capital....................................................................................... 28
Samenvatting: Marktrisico en Variantie................................................................ 28
The Cost of Capital.....................................................................................................29
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)............................................................... 29
Twee Belangrijke Aandachtspunten........................................................................... 29
Welke D en E gebruiken , bedrijf of project?........................................................ 29
Welke β en YTM gebruiken , bedrijf of project?....................................................29
Guest Lecture 1: Introduction to Pensions....................................................................... 30
Pension System: Multi-Pillar Model............................................................................ 30
Publieke Pensioenen , Eerste Pijler........................................................................... 30
Pay-as-you-go vs. Funded schemes.................................................................... 30
Beroepspensioenen , Tweede Pijler...........................................................................31
Persoonlijke Pensioenen , Derde Pijler...................................................................... 31
Pensioenfondsen........................................................................................................31
Beleggingsstrategie van Pensioenfondsen................................................................ 31
Tweede Pijler in België............................................................................................... 31
Toekomstige Uitdagingen........................................................................................... 32
Guest Lecture 2: Real Estate Finance................................................................................32
Real Estate in the Investment Landscape..................................................................32
Vastgoedwaarderingsmethoden.......................................................................................32
Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF)........................................................................32
Berekening van NOI............................................................................................. 32
Voorbeeld: Winkelcentrum (basisgeval)............................................................... 33
Voorbeeld: Vacancy rate.......................................................................................33
Voorbeeld: Parking als Other Income...................................................................33
Voorbeeld: Vierplexgebouw (Anna)...................................................................... 33
Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw (investor).................................................................. 33
2
, Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw met Terminal Value...................................................34
Directe Kapitalisatiemethode (Cap Rate)................................................................... 34
Voorbeeld: Appartementencomplex..................................................................... 34
Voorbeeld: Kantoorgebouw , combinatie cap rate & DCF.................................... 34
De Vastgoedmarkt: Het Vier-Kwadrantenmodel.........................................................35
Kwadrant 1 , Tenant Market (rechtsboven)...........................................................35
Kwadrant 2 , Investment Market (linksboven)...................................................... 36
Kwadrant 3 , Development Industry (linksonder)..................................................36
Kwadrant 4 , Stock of Space (rechtsonder)..........................................................37
Externe Schokken in het Vier-Kwadrantenmodel....................................................... 38
Schok 1: Economische Groei (Tenant Market)..................................................... 38
Schok 2: Verschuiving in Beleggersvoorkeuren (Investment Market).................. 39
Schok 3: Stijging van Registratierechten (Development Industry)....................... 39
Business Case: Waardering van de Finance Tower...................................................40
Situatieschets....................................................................................................... 40
Inputgegevens...................................................................................................... 40
NOI Berekening.................................................................................................... 41
NPV Berekening (discontovoet 4%)..................................................................... 41
Guest Lecture 3: Building a solid Investment Philosophy...............................................41
Investment Philosophy vs. Investment Strategy.........................................................41
I. A Walk Through Financial History................................................................................. 42
Louis Bachelier en Brownian Motion.......................................................................... 42
De Geboorte van Moderne Portfoliotheorie................................................................42
Home Bias en Geografische Diversificatie................................................................. 42
II. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH)..................................................................... 43
III. Belang van de Rendementsverdeling......................................................................... 43
Korte vs. Lange Termijn..............................................................................................43
Concentratie van Beste en Slechtste Dagen..............................................................44
Risico: Volatiliteit als Tweesnijdend Zwaard...............................................................44
IV. Uitdagingen voor de Efficient Markets Hypothesis......................................................45
A. Behavioral Finance................................................................................................ 45
B. The Wisdom and Foolishness of Crowds.............................................................. 46
3
, HOC 1: DCF & Valuing bonds
Fundamental Valuation Principle: Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation (DCF)
De kerngedachte van DCF-waardering is dat de waarde van een actief gelijk is aan de
prijs die je bereid bent te betalen, gegeven je verwachtingen over toekomstige
kasstromen en je vereist verwacht rendement.
One-period case
Het rendement in één periode wordt als volgt berekend:
r = (CF₁ + P₁ - P₀) / P₀
waarbij CF₁ de verwachte kasstroom is, P₁ de verwachte eindprijs, en P₀ de huidige prijs.
Omgevormd geeft dit de huidige waarde:
P₀ = (CF₁ + P₁) / (1 + r)
De huidige prijs is dus de contante waarde van de toekomstige kasstroom plus eindwaarde,
gedisconteerd tegen het vereiste rendement r.
Multi-period case
Bij meerdere periodes wordt dit uitgebreid naar:
P₀ = Σ [CF / (1 + r)ᵗ] + PH / (1 + r)^H (t = 1 tot H)
PH is de verwachte eindwaarde op tijdstip H. Dit model roept meteen drie fundamentele
vragen op:
● Wat zijn de verwachte kasstromen en eindwaarde? → vereist Fundamental
Analysis
● Wat is het vereiste rendement? → r = r_f + risicopremie (zie hoofdstuk 8)
● Individuele waardering vs. marktwaarde? → prijzen kunnen afwijken van
intrinsieke waarde
● Prijsvolatiliteit en bubbels? → markten kunnen systematisch over- of
onderwaarderen
Valuing Bonds
Terminologie
4
