Unit 1 - People, Politics and Participation
Voting Behaviour in the UK
There are a variety of different models and social factors, which will impact on voting
behaviour. Need to be able to look in detail at the differing factors but more importantly
have figures to back this up.
Party Identification – The idea that children identify with a political party and will stick to
that party for the rest of their lives. Although they may vote for another party in
exceptional circumstances but predominantly stay loyal. This was an important factor
post WW2 but has declined significantly.
Social Class – Party alignment based upon class has been a traditional predictor of a
person’s voter behaviour. However this has declined over the past 40 years and we can
see evidence of class dealignment. A, B & C1 used to vote Conservative. C2, D & E
used to vote Labour, however no longer the case.
AB C1 C2 DE
1992 2010 1992 2010 1992 2010 1992 2010
Conservative 53 39 48 39 40 37 29 32
Labour 23 26 28 28 39 29 52 40
Gender & Age – Women have traditionally voted for Conservatives and as people get
older they become more conservative. Younger people tend to more idealistic
objectives.
Conservative Labour
Gender 1992 2010 1992 2010
Men 38 38 36 28
Women 44 36 34 31
Age 1992 2010 1992 2010
18-24 38 30 35 31
25-34 37 35 41 30
35-44 38 34 38 31
45-64 44 36 35 28
65+ 49 44 33 31
Region – Traditionally there has been a north/south divide, with Labour dominating in
the north, primarily urban areas and the Conservatives in the south in rural areas.
Although at 2010 election the most obvious difference is the Conservative superiority in
England and lack of seats in Scotland and Wales.
,Rational Choice – This is a model which ignores any of the factors above. Instead the
voter bases their decision upon a rational decision after looking at the manifestos,
leaders and the record of the parties.
Issue Voting – Looking at the different policies you vote positively for ideas you support
or against ideas you hate. Key areas are economy, health and education.
Party Competence – For example the Conservatives were previously trusted with the
economy, until October 1992 and Black Wednesday. After this Labour were able to
demonstrate their competence in this important area until 2008.
Leadership – Elections have become more presidentialised and as such leaders are
under increasing scrutiny. Their personality can have a huge impact on how people vote,
e.g. Gordon Brown’s “bigoted” woman comment on Gillian Duffy. Of course this election
has increased the scrutiny with the PM debates.
Voting Context Model – Voters are trying to put the election into context and this can
be seen in the following areas.
Media – This can have an effect, particularly with the new media. Newspapers have
traditionally held sway but this is changing with 24 hour news channels, internet and
social networking sites e.g. Facebook and ensuring people registered to vote.
Newspapers nearly all turned their backs on Brown, just the Mirror remained.
Independent, Observer and Guardian all opted for a reform of the system standpoint.
Brown did receive a lot of adverse publicity but did it really affect him?
Impact on voter turnout – A low turnout figure does undermine the legitimacy of the
winning party and so it is imperative that it is as high as possible.
Turnout at 2010 was 65.1%
Turnout has dropped sharply since 1997, particularly in the 18-24 category and there are
a number of reasons why:
Social mobility has broken the community ties that young people feel
Lack of party identification means that people don’t feel an association with a
party
The result was too predictable therefore there is little point in voting
People are joining pressure groups as they are more effective
Parties are too similar on policy
Election campaign goes on for too long and people get bored
Opinion Polls – It is open to debate as to how much influence opinion polls have but in
France they ban them in the run up to elections because they feel it can have a
detrimental effect on the outcome. Others believe there is little impact but there can
, sometimes be a bandwagon effect where a party gets ahead in the polls and people just
flock to them because they want to be associated with winning.
However polls are generally accurate (apart from in 1992) and predicted the hung
parliament we have today before the election and in the exit poll.
Tactical Voting – This has been a consistent part of voting for some time, where you
vote for a party you don’t support to keep out a party you really dislike. Previously it has
been the Conservatives who have been attacked through tactical voting and this
happened clearly in 1997 & 2001. It has happened less so at the last two elections
because of Labour’s unpopular war in Iraq and the changing nature of the Conservative
Party.
Influence of campaigns – Very rarely a decisive factor, the 3 week period in the run up
to the election sees the main parties travelling across the country to outline their
message, spending thousands of pounds as they go. Conservative spent significantly
more in 2010 yet failed to win outright, so not always a real influence.
General Election 2010
First use of TV debates
Feeling that it would be an election controlled by the Social Media
Gordon Brown deeply unpopular
David Cameron popular but not convincing
Nick Clegg the real surprise with strong showing on TV
Election campaign ignited due to bigoted woman comment by Brown
Economy top issue due to the cuts
Labour lost their competency in this area
Immigration Law & Order became more important issue that all sides had to
tackle
General Election 2005
Michael Howard could not compete with Blair
Conservatives focused on the contentious issues such as immigration and
asylum
Even the conviction of Kamel Bourgass a terrorist who killed a PC and
was plotting to poison people could not see immigration as a major issue
Conservative image was still poor
They still supported the Iraq War and their claim “vote Blair get Brown”
was quite popular
Tax did not become a major issue. Labour could point to a strong
economy
Law and Order did not interest the public at large
Voting Behaviour in the UK
There are a variety of different models and social factors, which will impact on voting
behaviour. Need to be able to look in detail at the differing factors but more importantly
have figures to back this up.
Party Identification – The idea that children identify with a political party and will stick to
that party for the rest of their lives. Although they may vote for another party in
exceptional circumstances but predominantly stay loyal. This was an important factor
post WW2 but has declined significantly.
Social Class – Party alignment based upon class has been a traditional predictor of a
person’s voter behaviour. However this has declined over the past 40 years and we can
see evidence of class dealignment. A, B & C1 used to vote Conservative. C2, D & E
used to vote Labour, however no longer the case.
AB C1 C2 DE
1992 2010 1992 2010 1992 2010 1992 2010
Conservative 53 39 48 39 40 37 29 32
Labour 23 26 28 28 39 29 52 40
Gender & Age – Women have traditionally voted for Conservatives and as people get
older they become more conservative. Younger people tend to more idealistic
objectives.
Conservative Labour
Gender 1992 2010 1992 2010
Men 38 38 36 28
Women 44 36 34 31
Age 1992 2010 1992 2010
18-24 38 30 35 31
25-34 37 35 41 30
35-44 38 34 38 31
45-64 44 36 35 28
65+ 49 44 33 31
Region – Traditionally there has been a north/south divide, with Labour dominating in
the north, primarily urban areas and the Conservatives in the south in rural areas.
Although at 2010 election the most obvious difference is the Conservative superiority in
England and lack of seats in Scotland and Wales.
,Rational Choice – This is a model which ignores any of the factors above. Instead the
voter bases their decision upon a rational decision after looking at the manifestos,
leaders and the record of the parties.
Issue Voting – Looking at the different policies you vote positively for ideas you support
or against ideas you hate. Key areas are economy, health and education.
Party Competence – For example the Conservatives were previously trusted with the
economy, until October 1992 and Black Wednesday. After this Labour were able to
demonstrate their competence in this important area until 2008.
Leadership – Elections have become more presidentialised and as such leaders are
under increasing scrutiny. Their personality can have a huge impact on how people vote,
e.g. Gordon Brown’s “bigoted” woman comment on Gillian Duffy. Of course this election
has increased the scrutiny with the PM debates.
Voting Context Model – Voters are trying to put the election into context and this can
be seen in the following areas.
Media – This can have an effect, particularly with the new media. Newspapers have
traditionally held sway but this is changing with 24 hour news channels, internet and
social networking sites e.g. Facebook and ensuring people registered to vote.
Newspapers nearly all turned their backs on Brown, just the Mirror remained.
Independent, Observer and Guardian all opted for a reform of the system standpoint.
Brown did receive a lot of adverse publicity but did it really affect him?
Impact on voter turnout – A low turnout figure does undermine the legitimacy of the
winning party and so it is imperative that it is as high as possible.
Turnout at 2010 was 65.1%
Turnout has dropped sharply since 1997, particularly in the 18-24 category and there are
a number of reasons why:
Social mobility has broken the community ties that young people feel
Lack of party identification means that people don’t feel an association with a
party
The result was too predictable therefore there is little point in voting
People are joining pressure groups as they are more effective
Parties are too similar on policy
Election campaign goes on for too long and people get bored
Opinion Polls – It is open to debate as to how much influence opinion polls have but in
France they ban them in the run up to elections because they feel it can have a
detrimental effect on the outcome. Others believe there is little impact but there can
, sometimes be a bandwagon effect where a party gets ahead in the polls and people just
flock to them because they want to be associated with winning.
However polls are generally accurate (apart from in 1992) and predicted the hung
parliament we have today before the election and in the exit poll.
Tactical Voting – This has been a consistent part of voting for some time, where you
vote for a party you don’t support to keep out a party you really dislike. Previously it has
been the Conservatives who have been attacked through tactical voting and this
happened clearly in 1997 & 2001. It has happened less so at the last two elections
because of Labour’s unpopular war in Iraq and the changing nature of the Conservative
Party.
Influence of campaigns – Very rarely a decisive factor, the 3 week period in the run up
to the election sees the main parties travelling across the country to outline their
message, spending thousands of pounds as they go. Conservative spent significantly
more in 2010 yet failed to win outright, so not always a real influence.
General Election 2010
First use of TV debates
Feeling that it would be an election controlled by the Social Media
Gordon Brown deeply unpopular
David Cameron popular but not convincing
Nick Clegg the real surprise with strong showing on TV
Election campaign ignited due to bigoted woman comment by Brown
Economy top issue due to the cuts
Labour lost their competency in this area
Immigration Law & Order became more important issue that all sides had to
tackle
General Election 2005
Michael Howard could not compete with Blair
Conservatives focused on the contentious issues such as immigration and
asylum
Even the conviction of Kamel Bourgass a terrorist who killed a PC and
was plotting to poison people could not see immigration as a major issue
Conservative image was still poor
They still supported the Iraq War and their claim “vote Blair get Brown”
was quite popular
Tax did not become a major issue. Labour could point to a strong
economy
Law and Order did not interest the public at large
