GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN EURASIA
Lecture 1
Introduction: situating the course in the academic field of Post-Soviet Area Studies
— What are Area Studies? “a holistic investigation of some space and time rooted phenomenon”
(Lofland & Lofland (1995). Analyzing Social Settings)
= the essence of area studies NOT underwriting idea of “exceptionalism” of Russia and Eurasia
— From Soviet Studies to Post-Soviet Studies “The remarkable feature of Soviet area studies is
that, as a field of scholarly inquiry, it disappeared in December 1991, along with the Soviet Union
as a national entity.” Bonnell, V. E, & Breslauer, G. W. (1998). Soviet and Post-Soviet Area
Studies. UC Berkeley: Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies.
— Historical context ‘Sovietology’: Cold War impetus, especially in the U.S. (e.g. Kennan Institute,
Harriman Institute)
— From Soviet Studies to Post-Soviet Studies
- Dissolution of the Soviet Union (U.S.S.R.)
- a region and field of study in search of a new identity
- new data opening of historical archives
- new boundaries, new states (NIS, CIS, FSU states):focus on nation and state
building processes
- sudden rupture: end of SU had not been predicted by Sovietologists
- process of fundamental political, economic, legal, societal changes
Post-Soviet Studies in search of a new identity What’s in a name?
- Slavonic and East European studies
- Russian Studies
- Post-Communist Studies
- Eurasian studies
- Eurasian Studies entering a new phase
- Impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine calls for decolonizing the discipline in terms of
teaching and research Eg discussion on how to spell/transcribe names of persons, locations (e.g.
Kyiv)
- (geo)political shifts and ruptures challenging the existing paradigms
- giving a voice to the multiple nations of Eurasia, their national identities and
cultures, moving away from the dominant Russia-focused framework
- learning process for actors involved
1
,Introduction: What/where is Eurasia?
— Geographically, terms refers to combination of the continents Europe and Asia (largest
contiguous landmass) in context of this course: Eurasia = the “post-Soviet space”,
— i.e. 5 Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
— 3 South Caucasus states: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia
— + Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova
— + the Russian Federation
Thus, we define Eurasia here as a region consisting of diverse states and nations with geopolitical
relevance and we study the (geo)political developents in the region
Lenses for looking at the Eurasia:The Transition Paradigm
— Focus on the democratization process in post-Soviet studies
— Assumption: transition from authoritarian regimes to consolidated liberal democracies (linear
thinking)
— Comparative cases: Latin American countries, all former communist states, some Asian/African
states, …
— Part of the “third wave of democratization” (S. Huntington)
— Similar focus in economic studies of the region: transition from state guided economic systems
to free market economies
“It is increasingly clear that reality is no longer conforming to the model. Many countries that
policy makers and aid practitioners persist in calling ‘transitional’ are not in transition to
democracy, and of the democratic transitions that are under way, more than a few are not following
the model. Sticking with the paradigm beyond its useful life is retarding evolution in the field of
democratic assistance and is leading policy makers astray in other ways. It is time to recognize that
the transition paradigm has outlived its usefulness and to look for a better lens.” Carothers, Thomas
(2002), ‘The End of the Transition Paradigm’, Journal of Democracy 13(1):5-21
— Some problems with the transition paradigm:
- neglecting area-specific cultural, institutional legacies
- underestimating challenges of simultaneously ongoing nation- and state-building processes
in “NIS” in post-Soviet region
- misguided focus on organization of elections, analysis of election results, election cycles
Freedom House Nations in Transit reports democracy scores,
5 possibile democracy status categories:
- consolidated democracy
2
, - semi-consolidated democracy
- transitional or hybrid regime,
- semi-consolidated authoritarian regime
- consolidated authoritarian regime
Lenses for looking at the Eurasia: Geopolitics
— Geopolitics
- The impact of geography on (international) politics
-Examples of geographical factors that have an impact on foreign policy of a state and
interaction between states, including perception by other actors:
- possession of natural resources
- maritime access
- population density
- boundaries by mountain ranges, location of rivers,…
— Understanding of geopolitics as used in the context of this course:
- Broad definition
- Not adhering to a specific theoretical framework (combining elements from Neorealism,
Constructivism, critical geopolitics and political geography)
- One of the possible lenses to look at developments in Eurasia
- Aim? getting a better understanding of the different actors, their interests, policies and their
interaction in the region
Guiding questions:
1) Which insights did you get into the geopolitical importance of the Caspian Sea?
• Strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia
The Caspian Sea sits at a key intersection of Eurasian geopolitics — bordering five littoral states
(Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) and serving as a bridge connecting Central
Asia with Europe and the South Caucasus.
• Crucial role in energy security and transit corridors
The region holds vast hydrocarbon reserves and is central to energy export routes that can diversify
supply — especially for Europe seeking alternatives to Russian energy. Projects like the Southern
Gas Corridor highlight how Caspian energy resources and infrastructure tie into broader European
and global energy strategies.
3
, • Ecological factors linked to geopolitical stakes
The discussion emphasised that environmental issues — especially the Caspian’s declining water
levels — are not just ecological but also political and economic. Lower levels affect ports, shipping,
energy infrastructure, and regional cooperation dynamics.
• Geopolitical competition and cooperation
External powers (EU, Russia, China, US) all have stakes in the Caspian, whether for energy, trade
corridors, or influence in the broader Central Asian/South Caucasus space. The region’s geography
makes it central to these strategic interests.
2) Which are the 2 for you most interesting things you learned from this podcast?
The Caspian’s ecological future is geopolitically significant
The podcast highlighted — and external reporting confirms — that the Caspian’s water level is
decreasing rapidly, with implications for ports, shipping, and ecosystems. This isn’t just an
environmental issue: it shapes infrastructure viability, economic activity, and cooperation among the
littoral states.
Multidimensional geopolitical relevance
I found it fascinating how the episode bridged environmental science, regional geopolitics, and
energy security in one conversation. The Caspian isn’t just a sea with oil and gas — its role in
future European transport and “corridor” plans shows how geography and politics intersect in
practical, forward-looking ways.
Lecture 2: Geopolitical Developments in the Caspian Sea Region
An introduction to energy and pipeline politics and policies in Eurasia
— President I. Aliyev (Azerbaijan) as head of state of the host country of COP29, Nov 12, 2024:
Data about emissions of AZ: “Fake news from the West” “nations should not be blamed for having
fossil fuel reserves” “oil and gas are a gift from God” Announcement of plans to expand AZ gas
production by up to 1/3 over next decade
— Russia: No2 World Producer Natural Gas. was No 1 until 2010 Drop in Russia’s production
volume compared to 5 years ago. Increase of 7% in 2024 compared to 2023. Second biggest natural
gas consumer
4
Lecture 1
Introduction: situating the course in the academic field of Post-Soviet Area Studies
— What are Area Studies? “a holistic investigation of some space and time rooted phenomenon”
(Lofland & Lofland (1995). Analyzing Social Settings)
= the essence of area studies NOT underwriting idea of “exceptionalism” of Russia and Eurasia
— From Soviet Studies to Post-Soviet Studies “The remarkable feature of Soviet area studies is
that, as a field of scholarly inquiry, it disappeared in December 1991, along with the Soviet Union
as a national entity.” Bonnell, V. E, & Breslauer, G. W. (1998). Soviet and Post-Soviet Area
Studies. UC Berkeley: Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies.
— Historical context ‘Sovietology’: Cold War impetus, especially in the U.S. (e.g. Kennan Institute,
Harriman Institute)
— From Soviet Studies to Post-Soviet Studies
- Dissolution of the Soviet Union (U.S.S.R.)
- a region and field of study in search of a new identity
- new data opening of historical archives
- new boundaries, new states (NIS, CIS, FSU states):focus on nation and state
building processes
- sudden rupture: end of SU had not been predicted by Sovietologists
- process of fundamental political, economic, legal, societal changes
Post-Soviet Studies in search of a new identity What’s in a name?
- Slavonic and East European studies
- Russian Studies
- Post-Communist Studies
- Eurasian studies
- Eurasian Studies entering a new phase
- Impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine calls for decolonizing the discipline in terms of
teaching and research Eg discussion on how to spell/transcribe names of persons, locations (e.g.
Kyiv)
- (geo)political shifts and ruptures challenging the existing paradigms
- giving a voice to the multiple nations of Eurasia, their national identities and
cultures, moving away from the dominant Russia-focused framework
- learning process for actors involved
1
,Introduction: What/where is Eurasia?
— Geographically, terms refers to combination of the continents Europe and Asia (largest
contiguous landmass) in context of this course: Eurasia = the “post-Soviet space”,
— i.e. 5 Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
— 3 South Caucasus states: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia
— + Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova
— + the Russian Federation
Thus, we define Eurasia here as a region consisting of diverse states and nations with geopolitical
relevance and we study the (geo)political developents in the region
Lenses for looking at the Eurasia:The Transition Paradigm
— Focus on the democratization process in post-Soviet studies
— Assumption: transition from authoritarian regimes to consolidated liberal democracies (linear
thinking)
— Comparative cases: Latin American countries, all former communist states, some Asian/African
states, …
— Part of the “third wave of democratization” (S. Huntington)
— Similar focus in economic studies of the region: transition from state guided economic systems
to free market economies
“It is increasingly clear that reality is no longer conforming to the model. Many countries that
policy makers and aid practitioners persist in calling ‘transitional’ are not in transition to
democracy, and of the democratic transitions that are under way, more than a few are not following
the model. Sticking with the paradigm beyond its useful life is retarding evolution in the field of
democratic assistance and is leading policy makers astray in other ways. It is time to recognize that
the transition paradigm has outlived its usefulness and to look for a better lens.” Carothers, Thomas
(2002), ‘The End of the Transition Paradigm’, Journal of Democracy 13(1):5-21
— Some problems with the transition paradigm:
- neglecting area-specific cultural, institutional legacies
- underestimating challenges of simultaneously ongoing nation- and state-building processes
in “NIS” in post-Soviet region
- misguided focus on organization of elections, analysis of election results, election cycles
Freedom House Nations in Transit reports democracy scores,
5 possibile democracy status categories:
- consolidated democracy
2
, - semi-consolidated democracy
- transitional or hybrid regime,
- semi-consolidated authoritarian regime
- consolidated authoritarian regime
Lenses for looking at the Eurasia: Geopolitics
— Geopolitics
- The impact of geography on (international) politics
-Examples of geographical factors that have an impact on foreign policy of a state and
interaction between states, including perception by other actors:
- possession of natural resources
- maritime access
- population density
- boundaries by mountain ranges, location of rivers,…
— Understanding of geopolitics as used in the context of this course:
- Broad definition
- Not adhering to a specific theoretical framework (combining elements from Neorealism,
Constructivism, critical geopolitics and political geography)
- One of the possible lenses to look at developments in Eurasia
- Aim? getting a better understanding of the different actors, their interests, policies and their
interaction in the region
Guiding questions:
1) Which insights did you get into the geopolitical importance of the Caspian Sea?
• Strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia
The Caspian Sea sits at a key intersection of Eurasian geopolitics — bordering five littoral states
(Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) and serving as a bridge connecting Central
Asia with Europe and the South Caucasus.
• Crucial role in energy security and transit corridors
The region holds vast hydrocarbon reserves and is central to energy export routes that can diversify
supply — especially for Europe seeking alternatives to Russian energy. Projects like the Southern
Gas Corridor highlight how Caspian energy resources and infrastructure tie into broader European
and global energy strategies.
3
, • Ecological factors linked to geopolitical stakes
The discussion emphasised that environmental issues — especially the Caspian’s declining water
levels — are not just ecological but also political and economic. Lower levels affect ports, shipping,
energy infrastructure, and regional cooperation dynamics.
• Geopolitical competition and cooperation
External powers (EU, Russia, China, US) all have stakes in the Caspian, whether for energy, trade
corridors, or influence in the broader Central Asian/South Caucasus space. The region’s geography
makes it central to these strategic interests.
2) Which are the 2 for you most interesting things you learned from this podcast?
The Caspian’s ecological future is geopolitically significant
The podcast highlighted — and external reporting confirms — that the Caspian’s water level is
decreasing rapidly, with implications for ports, shipping, and ecosystems. This isn’t just an
environmental issue: it shapes infrastructure viability, economic activity, and cooperation among the
littoral states.
Multidimensional geopolitical relevance
I found it fascinating how the episode bridged environmental science, regional geopolitics, and
energy security in one conversation. The Caspian isn’t just a sea with oil and gas — its role in
future European transport and “corridor” plans shows how geography and politics intersect in
practical, forward-looking ways.
Lecture 2: Geopolitical Developments in the Caspian Sea Region
An introduction to energy and pipeline politics and policies in Eurasia
— President I. Aliyev (Azerbaijan) as head of state of the host country of COP29, Nov 12, 2024:
Data about emissions of AZ: “Fake news from the West” “nations should not be blamed for having
fossil fuel reserves” “oil and gas are a gift from God” Announcement of plans to expand AZ gas
production by up to 1/3 over next decade
— Russia: No2 World Producer Natural Gas. was No 1 until 2010 Drop in Russia’s production
volume compared to 5 years ago. Increase of 7% in 2024 compared to 2023. Second biggest natural
gas consumer
4
