what is science - Answers slowly accumulate evidence in support (or refuting) theories
-impossible to prove a theory (evidence just becomes overwhelming with more studies)
what is replication - Answers for evidence to be considered evidence multiple independent labs
must run the same experiment and get similar results over and over
-if they cant replicate we question if it is real
initial spark of the replication crisis - Answers -feeling the future article by Bem
published in a highly prestigious journal
-9 experiments found evidence for "psi" (pre-cognition: predicting the future)
-randomly shown erotic pictures vs not
-did better than chance but no one was convinced it was a real thing
replicability project - Answers tried to replicate 100 studies, only 36% were replicated
how do researchers publish false studies without committing outright fraud? - Answers -
HARKing (Hypo after results are known): when you dont find supporting evidence for your actual
hypo, you craft a new one to make the results you do find while making it sound like that was
what you meant all along
-p-hacking: (P-values = numbers used to make decisions about whether our hypothesis was
supported)
low p-values = good THUS people massage them to get the value a little lower
ex) cut peoples results or values to get the value they really wanted
add more data if it doesnt
methods of research - Answers -ingredients: Institutional pressures "Publish and pressures"
# of papers and where theyre published matters
-flashy and significant effects needed to publish
publish papers that have the more scientific impact (publication bias)
, if your manipulation finds no effect you will likely not get published
-lots of ways to analyze the data
garden of forking paths, p-hacking, intentional + unintentional
there are always different ways to analyze a data set = subjective in how each person analyzes
it
-all contributing to less replicable science
human error
research replication in other domains - Answers -drug studies: 20-25% replicated
-cancer treatment studies: 11% replicated
-many others: chem, bio, physics, med etc
solutions to incorrect research practices - Answers -establish best practices to avoid p-hacking
(stats + methods)
= reregistered reports, pre registration of hypotheses
-revisiting established effects + support for replicating what we thought of as real things
-developing better sense of what is likely to be a real effect (based on effect sizes)
anchor points to compare to other effect sizes
-"many labs" replication projects
multiple labs conducting the same study + comparing results
-open data, open code, methods = transparency
what does the replication crisis illustrate - Answers -science is working as intended