ISR CDP Module One Questions and
Answers
Example of Changing Directions - Instead of trying to answer whether or
not a target nation will invade, focusing on under what conditions they would
attack.
What are the Eight Elements of Thought? - -Purpose
-Question at Issue
-Information
-Interpretation and Inference
-Concepts
-Assumptions
-Implications and Consequences
-Point of View
critical thinking - is self-guided, self-disciplined thinking which attempts to
reason at the highest level of quality in a fair-minded way.
Example of Deductive Reasoning - Enemy military has always conducted an
exercise the week prior to a major national holiday as a show of force. Next
month is their independence day; therefore, we should start seeing its military
preparing for the exercise soon.
Perception - Links people to their environment and is critical to an accurate
understanding of the world around us.
,Often thought of as a passive process, people construct their own version of
"reality" based upon information provided by the sense.
What we perceive, how readily we perceive it, and how we process the
information after receiving it are influenced by? - -Past Experience
-Education
-Cultural Values
-Role Requirements
-Organizational norms
True or False: Mindsets tend to form quickly but are resistant to change. -
True, initial exposure to ambiguous information interferes with accurate
perception even after new information becomes available.
True or False: An analyst's experience has no effect on how he or she perceives
the environment because the sensory input isn't affected . - False, this is a
reason why there are barriers to reasoning.
True or False: Understanding how we use our past experiences to interpret or
filter our observations will help us determine the customer's needs or the target's
behavior. - True, understanding our own perception helps us overcome the
barrier to reason.
What are the four barriers to reasoning? - - Emotion
- Mental Shortcuts
-Patterns
,-Group think
Emotion - the primary problem with "this" is that it hijacks reason, making
rationality secondary.
Mental Shortcuts - Previous experiences shape our response to new
problem. "This" reduces the need to re-learn lessons, thus promoting efficient
thinking, "they" are the basis of expertise.
Patterns - "These" impose the order our minds seek and can blind us to
new explanations. Because we need to make sense of things, we do not have
accurate explanations all the time.
Group Think - the mode of thinking that occurs when the desire for
harmony in a decision-making group overrides a realistic appraisal of alternatives
7 Defects of Groupthink - -Discussion limited to merely two or a few
alternative courses of action (often only two).
-No survey of objectives to be fulfilled and the values implicated by the choice.
-Failure to re-examine the selected COA from the standpoint of non-obvious risk
and drawbacks not considered during the original evaluation.
-Neglect COA's initially evaluated as unsatisfactory.
-Little or no attempt to gain information from experts on other COA's.
-Interest only in information that supports the group decision.
-Failure to work out contingency plans to cope with foreseeable setbacks.
, Mirror Imaging - assuming that other states or individuals will act just the
way a particular country or person does
Example of Emotion Barrier - Making a hasty analysis in anger after hearing
leave has been cancelled.
Example of Mental Shortcut - Identifying a target unit based solely on the
call-sign they used last year.
Example of Patterns - Claiming the squadron preforms weekly training
based on intelligence from three previous three months, that unit hasn't done so
for two of the past three weeks.
Example of Groupthink - Intelligence Community agrees that Iraq had
stockpile of weapons of mass destruction without questioning the validity of the
sources.
Biases - an unconscious belief that guides, governs, and compels our
behavior.
Shapes our ability to think and solve problems, makes us look for evidence that
supports our beliefs and oppose information that does not.
Satisficing - accept the first plausible explanation and use it to filter out
non-supporting information
Answers
Example of Changing Directions - Instead of trying to answer whether or
not a target nation will invade, focusing on under what conditions they would
attack.
What are the Eight Elements of Thought? - -Purpose
-Question at Issue
-Information
-Interpretation and Inference
-Concepts
-Assumptions
-Implications and Consequences
-Point of View
critical thinking - is self-guided, self-disciplined thinking which attempts to
reason at the highest level of quality in a fair-minded way.
Example of Deductive Reasoning - Enemy military has always conducted an
exercise the week prior to a major national holiday as a show of force. Next
month is their independence day; therefore, we should start seeing its military
preparing for the exercise soon.
Perception - Links people to their environment and is critical to an accurate
understanding of the world around us.
,Often thought of as a passive process, people construct their own version of
"reality" based upon information provided by the sense.
What we perceive, how readily we perceive it, and how we process the
information after receiving it are influenced by? - -Past Experience
-Education
-Cultural Values
-Role Requirements
-Organizational norms
True or False: Mindsets tend to form quickly but are resistant to change. -
True, initial exposure to ambiguous information interferes with accurate
perception even after new information becomes available.
True or False: An analyst's experience has no effect on how he or she perceives
the environment because the sensory input isn't affected . - False, this is a
reason why there are barriers to reasoning.
True or False: Understanding how we use our past experiences to interpret or
filter our observations will help us determine the customer's needs or the target's
behavior. - True, understanding our own perception helps us overcome the
barrier to reason.
What are the four barriers to reasoning? - - Emotion
- Mental Shortcuts
-Patterns
,-Group think
Emotion - the primary problem with "this" is that it hijacks reason, making
rationality secondary.
Mental Shortcuts - Previous experiences shape our response to new
problem. "This" reduces the need to re-learn lessons, thus promoting efficient
thinking, "they" are the basis of expertise.
Patterns - "These" impose the order our minds seek and can blind us to
new explanations. Because we need to make sense of things, we do not have
accurate explanations all the time.
Group Think - the mode of thinking that occurs when the desire for
harmony in a decision-making group overrides a realistic appraisal of alternatives
7 Defects of Groupthink - -Discussion limited to merely two or a few
alternative courses of action (often only two).
-No survey of objectives to be fulfilled and the values implicated by the choice.
-Failure to re-examine the selected COA from the standpoint of non-obvious risk
and drawbacks not considered during the original evaluation.
-Neglect COA's initially evaluated as unsatisfactory.
-Little or no attempt to gain information from experts on other COA's.
-Interest only in information that supports the group decision.
-Failure to work out contingency plans to cope with foreseeable setbacks.
, Mirror Imaging - assuming that other states or individuals will act just the
way a particular country or person does
Example of Emotion Barrier - Making a hasty analysis in anger after hearing
leave has been cancelled.
Example of Mental Shortcut - Identifying a target unit based solely on the
call-sign they used last year.
Example of Patterns - Claiming the squadron preforms weekly training
based on intelligence from three previous three months, that unit hasn't done so
for two of the past three weeks.
Example of Groupthink - Intelligence Community agrees that Iraq had
stockpile of weapons of mass destruction without questioning the validity of the
sources.
Biases - an unconscious belief that guides, governs, and compels our
behavior.
Shapes our ability to think and solve problems, makes us look for evidence that
supports our beliefs and oppose information that does not.
Satisficing - accept the first plausible explanation and use it to filter out
non-supporting information
